Then, what factors determine the price of shops, and what is the basis of their pricing? Although according to the theory of economics, developers can get the sales price by adding development cost, related taxes and profits to the land cost, the actual situation is not so simple. From the perspective of shop investment, investors have their own investment expectations, and have their own consideration criteria for many factors such as shop investment risk, liquidity, management, tax, value change and so on. Therefore, we need to explore the main factors that affect or determine the price of shops from the following main aspects.
The comprehensive rent level of a city is a direct factor affecting the pricing of shops.
There may be many qualitative indicators that affect the price of shops, but there is only one quantitative indicator, that is, the rent level around. When buying a shop, investors will first look at the rent level around the project, and decide what kind of sales price they can support according to the capitalization rate of the shop investment in this city (that is, the basic level of investment return). This method is most suitable for specific projects with reference to the rent level of surrounding shops, which can directly determine whether the cost performance of buying shops is appropriate.
For any city, due to the differential rent factor, there is definitely a gap in the rent of shops in the downtown business district and other regions, and the key is the size of the gap. For small and medium-sized cities, there is only 1-2 central business district, which leads to a very large rent gap between business district and other areas, thus making the sales price of shops very high; For big cities, there are not only municipal commercial centers, but also regional commercial centers and community commercial centers. Compared with small cities, the rent difference is not particularly big. Therefore, we can say that the rent level of the development project will directly determine the pricing of the project itself.
The mobility of the city and the degree of development of the tertiary industry are the key factors affecting the overall price of urban shops.
Professor Huang Guoxiong, vice president of China Business Economics Association and China Renmin University, has a famous saying: The core competitiveness of a city is mainly manifested as the multiplier of productivity and circulation. Namely: competitiveness = productivity+liquidity. In the case of relatively stable production, liquidity becomes the decisive factor. The lack of liquidity 1 not only makes local production capacity impossible, but also hinders internal and external communication, which greatly weakens the competitiveness of the city. If the liquidity is greater than 1, it can not only make up for the shortage of local production capacity, but also greatly improve the radiation and influence of the city by promoting internal and external exchanges, complementary advantages and combined configuration. For example, Singapore's remarkable economic achievements lie not in its production advantages, but in its strong liquidity; China and Hongkong became an international metropolis and was rated as the best commercial city in Asia because of its developed tertiary industry.
The developed degree of liquidity and the development of the tertiary industry will directly affect the rents and sales prices of local shops. Why do shops in Wenzhou, Yiwu and Shaoxing in Zhejiang sell fast and have high prices? It is because the various scales and markets that have been formed locally not only affect the whole country, but also radiate the whole world. Even in different areas of the same city, because of the different liquidity, the difference in shop rents is very large. For example, Yabao Road in Beijing, represented by Geely Building and Tianya Building, has a much higher rent than Xidan, Wangfujing and Guo Mao, because this area is the window for China to trade with the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries; Zhongguancun has formed an electronic market covering North China and Northeast China. Therefore, small shops can sell for 1.4 million/square meter (interior area).
Therefore, developers should also combine the actual situation of the project when pricing shops, even if the same project is only one road away, the price may be several times worse. The so-called "one step, three markets" is the truth.
Investment channels are an important factor in determining the price level of shops in a city.
The author once conducted a qualitative interview with shop investors in Dongying, Shandong. The investment expectation of local investors is "as long as the return is higher than the bank interest, we can accept it", which means that the expected internal rate of return of investors is 4%-5%; In Beijing, investors generally expect to recover all their investments in 8- 10, and the expected internal rate of return is 10%- 15%. This reflects the capitalization rate and investment expectation of shops in different cities.
What we are talking about here is the capitalization rate, not the internal rate of return (IRR). Although they may express the same meaning at some time, they are essentially different. Internal rate of return (IRR) refers to the present value of the future discounted cash flow method for real estate investment as the discount rate used for initial investment, that is, the percentage of profits earned by investing one yuan each year. Capitalization rate refers to the ratio between the purchase price of a property and its net operating income, which is obtained through comparable properties or market data in the market. In a city where the supply and demand of shops are relatively balanced, the capitalization rate is the expected internal rate of return for investors to buy shops. He can know the capitalization rate by investigating and comparing the rental income or net operating income of shops in the same region with the price ratio of shops to be purchased, and take this ratio as the expected internal rate of return of investment.
In recent years, a large number of foreign investors have flooded into Beijing's retail investment market. For example, four sets of SOHO auctions outside Jianwai were bought by foreigners; Wenzhou people began to line up more than 10 hours in advance for the opening of Zhongguancun science and trade; The 0 1 shop of Yin Ke Building was bought by a mysterious Shanxi buyer for 75 million yuan, setting a record for a single store in Zhongguancun. I think the main reason is that the return on investment of shops in small and medium-sized cities is relatively low, while that of shops in Beijing is relatively high, which is also in line with the principle of capital flow in economics.
If we analyze the reasons from a deeper level, the relatively single investment channels in small and medium-sized cities are also a very important factor. In big cities such as Beijing, people can invest in stocks, futures, postcards, antiques, calligraphy and painting. Even if you invest in real estate, you can consider apartments and office buildings. However, many small and medium-sized cities in China have not yet formed such a market, and some cities do not even have a stock market. As for investing in antiques, calligraphy and painting, you need to come to Beijing for trading, not to mention that investing in such markets requires higher professional knowledge and greater risks. Even if you want to invest in real estate, shops are the only choice, because there is no office building and apartment rental market in such a city. Take Hohhot as an example. There are no real apartment projects in Hohhot now. Of the only three office buildings on the market that have been sold and rented, 50% are sold by developers with top debts. Therefore, for investors in small and medium-sized cities, shops are the best and only investment varieties. Because there are many investors and few investment projects, this is also the reason why the sales price of shops in many second-and third-tier cities is much higher than that in Beijing.
In addition to the above factors, there are many factors that affect the price of shops, such as the current level of economic development, political stability, changes in tax policies and so on. But one thing is certain, house price is not the influencing factor that determines the price of shops, and there is no theoretical basis for measuring the price of shops with house price.