Gold is a common reserve currency in the world and a common investment tool to avoid inflation. The currency value of a country is determined by its gold reserves and economic strength.

1, supply factor:

Supply factors mainly include:

(1) the gold reserves on the ground. At present, there are about 137400 tons of gold in the world, and the above-ground gold stock is still growing at an annual rate of about 2%.

② Annual supply and demand. The annual supply and demand of gold is about 4,200 tons, and the newly produced gold accounts for 62% of the annual supply. ③ The production cost of gold is quite high. The average total cost of gold mining is about $275 per ounce. Some old gold mines in South Africa are digging deeper and deeper, and the production cost per ounce is nearly 400 dollars.

④ Political, military and economic changes in gold-producing countries. Any political and military turmoil in these countries will undoubtedly directly affect the gold production of this country, and then affect the world gold supply.

⑤ The central bank sells gold. The central bank is the largest gold holder in the world. 1969 The official gold reserve was 36,458 tons, accounting for 42.6% of the total surface gold stock at that time. By 1998, the official gold reserve is about 34,000 tons, accounting for 24. 1% of the total mined gold stock. According to the current production capacity, this is equivalent to the world gold mineral output 13. Because the main use of gold has gradually changed from an important reserve asset to a metal raw material for jewelry production, either to improve the balance of payments or to curb the international gold price, the central bank's gold reserves have declined greatly in absolute and relative quantities in the past 30 years, and the decline in quantity mainly depends on the sale of gold reserves in the gold market. For example, the Bank of England sold off on a large scale, and the Swiss National Bank and the International Monetary Fund reduced their gold reserves, which are also the focus of the international gold market.

2. Demand factors:

The demand for gold is directly related to its use.

① Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc.). Generally speaking, the development speed of the world economy determines the total demand for gold. For example, in the field of microelectronics, gold is increasingly used as a protective layer; In the fields of medicine, building decoration and so on, although the progress of science and technology makes gold substitutes appear constantly, the demand for gold is still on the rise because of its special metal properties.

(2) the need to preserve value. Gold reserves have always been regarded by the central bank as an important means to prevent domestic inflation and regulate the market. For ordinary investors, investing in gold is mainly for the purpose of preserving value under inflation. During the economic downturn, due to the insurance of gold relative to monetary assets, the demand for gold increased and the price of gold rose. For example, in the three dollar crises after World War II, due to the serious balance of payments deficit in the United States, the dollar held by various countries increased greatly, the market's confidence in the value of the dollar was shaken, and investors snapped up gold in large quantities, which directly led to the bankruptcy of the Bretton Woods system. The depreciation of 1987 dollars, the increase of the deficit in the United States and the instability in the Middle East also contributed to the sharp rise in international gold prices.

③ Speculative demand. According to the international and domestic situation, speculators use the fluctuation of gold price in the gold market and the trading system in the gold futures market to "short" or "replenish" gold in large quantities, artificially creating the illusion of gold demand. In the gold market, almost every plunge is related to hedge fund companies borrowing short-term gold to sell in the spot gold market and establishing a large number of short positions on the COMEX gold futures exchange. When the price of gold fell to a 20-year low of 1999 in July, the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that COMEX's speculative short position was close to 9 million ounces (nearly 300 tons). When a large number of stop-loss selling was triggered, the price of gold fell, and the fund company took the opportunity to make up the position and make a profit. When the gold price rebounded slightly, the hedging forward selling from manufacturers suppressed the further rise of the gold price, and at the same time gave the fund company a new opportunity to re-establish short positions, forming a downward pattern of the gold price at that time.

3. Other factors:

The influence of (1) dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. Generally, when the dollar in the gold market rises, the price of gold will fall; When the dollar fell, the price of gold rose. A strong dollar generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of gold as a means of value storage will be weakened; The decline in the exchange rate of the US dollar is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn, and the value-preserving function of gold is once again reflected. This is because the depreciation of the dollar is often related to inflation, and the high value of gold will often stimulate the preservation of gold and the increase of speculative demand in the case of the depreciation of the dollar and the intensification of inflation. In August of 197 1 and February of 1973, the US government announced the depreciation of the US dollar twice. Influenced by the sharp drop in the exchange rate of the US dollar and inflation, the price of gold rose to the highest level in history at the beginning of 1980, exceeding $800 per ounce. Looking back on the history of the past 20 years, if the dollar is strong against other western currencies, the price of gold in the international market will fall; If the market lacks confidence in the dollar, the price of gold will rise.

② The monetary policies of various countries are closely related to the international gold price. When a country adopts a loose monetary policy, due to the reduction of interest rates, the country's money supply increases, which increases the possibility of inflation and will lead to an increase in the price of gold. For example, the low interest rate policy in the United States in the 1960 s led to the outflow of domestic funds and a large number of dollars flowed into Europe and Japan. As the net dollar position held by countries increased, they began to worry about the value of the dollar, so they began to sell dollars in the international market and snap up gold, which eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.

③ The influence of inflation on the price of gold. In this regard, long-term and short-term analysis is needed, and it depends on the degree of inflation in the short term. In the long run, if the annual inflation rate changes within the normal range, it will have little impact on the fluctuation of gold prices; Only in a short period of time, the price rises sharply, causing people to panic, and the purchasing power of monetary units declines, will the price of gold rise sharply. Although the world has entered the era of low inflation since 1990s, the use of gold as a symbol of currency stability is shrinking. Moreover, as a long-term investment tool, gold has a lower yield than bonds, stocks and other securities. But in the long run, gold is still an important means to deal with inflation.

④ The influence of international trade, finance and foreign debt deficit on gold price. Debt is a worldwide problem, not just a unique phenomenon in developing countries. In the debt chain, not only the debtor countries can't repay their debts, which leads to economic stagnation, but also the economic stagnation further aggravates the vicious circle of debt. Even creditor countries are in danger of financial collapse because of the breakdown of relations with debtor countries. At this time, in order to maintain their own economy from harm, countries will reserve a large amount of gold, which has caused the price of gold to rise in the market.

⑤ International political turmoil, war, etc. Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government pays for the war or in order to maintain domestic economic stability, a large number of investors turn to gold to invest, which will expand the demand for gold and stimulate the price of gold to rise. For example, World War II, the Vietnam War, 1976 coup in Thailand, and 1986 Iran-contra incident all caused the price of gold to rise to varying degrees. For example, the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in September, 200012000 caused the price of gold to soar from $270 to now.

⑥ The influence of stock market on gold price. Generally speaking, the stock market falls and the price of gold rises. This mainly reflects investors' expectations of economic development prospects. If everyone is generally pessimistic about the economic prospects, a large amount of funds will flow out of the stock market, the stock market will cool down and the price of gold will rise.

In addition to the above-mentioned factors affecting the price of gold, the intervention activities of international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of central financial institutions in China and the region will also have a significant impact on the changes in the world price of gold. Gold is the last means of payment between countries when necessary.

1. A country's gold reserves are directly related to the appreciation and depreciation of its currency.

Generally speaking, when a country's currency appreciates, it has more gold reserves, and depreciation does not necessarily mean that its gold reserves decrease; Examples can be found in China and Japan. You should know that the yen often depreciates for trade; Let's forget the example of China. On the other hand, it is unreasonable for you to say that the currency will appreciate if there are more gold reserves. Exchange rate is the comparison of purchasing power, and its essence is the comparison of economic strength.

2. Someone deposited a large amount of cash in the People's Bank of China and transferred it to the United States. If you want to withdraw cash in the United States, does the Bank of America need to ask the Bank of China for the same amount of gold instead of money? Not exactly. Gold comes and goes, wasting transfer costs and storage costs. Today, with the development of communication and technology, it is unthinkable to use gold for delivery. In addition to gold, there are many international reserves, such as payment units. Generally speaking, in the banking system, gold can only be used when clearing positions.

A country's economic strength is directly related to its gold reserves.

Generally speaking, when the economic strength is strong and the industry is developed, the ability to buy gold is naturally greatly enhanced, and a large amount of gold is needed for processing. Therefore, a strong economic strength naturally needs a large amount of gold reserves, one is finance, the other is industry, and the third is luxury goods.

Only banks that can store gold in the world have the right to issue money.

You can say that in theory, but in practice, of course, it is too wide. Currency is compulsory and legal by the state, and no bank can issue it in gold. In fact, there is no gold. As long as you have the power to issue money, there will be a flood of gold soon, as evidenced by China 49 years ago. Of course, issuing money by banks without gold reserves is a disaster for users, including the Yuan Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty and the Republic of China.

The U.S. military spending on Iraq reduced the gold reserve of the U.S. Treasury. Although the gold reserve decreased, its currency depreciated.

This is far-fetched The annual military expenditure in the United States is hundreds of billions. The Iraq war is not the main reason, but the slow economic development is trade measures and monetary policy. Although the status of the dollar can no longer be described by dollars, it does not need gold to support it. Considering the trade deficit and capital surplus of the United States, it is making great use of the gold reserves of other countries. To some extent, many of China's and Japanese's gold reserves actually serve the United States.