As CPI has exceeded the warning line of 5% inflation in China for five consecutive months, the prices of means of production are also rising rapidly recently, and moderate structural inflation has spread to global inflation, so preventing global inflation will become the top priority of macro-control tasks in 2008. However, in recent years, the pace of urbanization and industrial structure upgrading and adjustment in China has been accelerated at the same time, and the endogenous economic growth is very strong. In 2008, China's economy is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
A favorable environment for economic growth
A good social environment and the world's long-term optimistic expectations for China's economy are the basis and strength for Beijing to host the 2008 Olympic Games and Shanghai to host the 20 10 World Expo. In turn, these events will greatly promote the economic growth of China. After years of construction, China's infrastructure such as energy, electricity and transportation has developed rapidly, and the shortage of raw materials, fuel and electricity has basically eased. Large-scale coal gasification projects, the shutdown of small thermal power plants and the expansion of new installed capacity, and the construction of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway have flourished. With the development of new rural construction, rural energy, transportation, water conservancy and human settlements have been further strengthened. The steady growth of urban and rural residents' income for many years, the improvement of social security system and the promotion of social welfare undertakings have greatly enhanced people's confidence in a better future. At present, the favorable internal environment for China's economic growth not only effectively ensures the stability of economic growth in 2008, but also continues the rising cycle of China's economic growth.
Agriculture is expected to stabilize production and increase income.
Agriculture has a strong periodicity. Although China's grain production increased for four consecutive years from 2004 to 2006, the domestic grain supply was tight in 2007 due to the imbalance of grain shortage in the international market. This situation is expected to be solved in 2008, because FAO is very optimistic about the world grain harvest in 2007, and predicts that the grain output will reach the highest level in history. Secondly, the China government's support for agriculture is increasing year by year, especially after agricultural subsidies such as growing grain and raising pigs are paid in place in 2007, farmers' enthusiasm for agricultural production will be improved. In addition, as long as the policy is in place, farmers' ability to adjust production independently according to the market will be further significantly enhanced.
Investment will continue to grow steadily.
The economic growth in recent years has accumulated a lot of wealth for the country, and the funds concentrated in government departments are mostly returned to the people in the form of investment and construction. 2008 is the year of government transformation, and stabilizing economic growth is its primary duty, while key investment in construction is the routine policy of most governments, so the internal motivation of government investment is very strong. Moreover, in 2007, the profits of enterprises rose sharply, and the opportunities and conditions for enterprises to obtain funds from the capital market increased. Enterprises will continue to increase domestic investment while implementing the "going out" strategy. Looking at various factors of domestic investment, the investment fever in 2008 is still unabated.
Consumption has reached a new level.
In 2007, on the basis of maintaining the popularity of housing, cars and tourism in recent years, the daily consumption of families such as food, clothing, housing and transportation increased substantially. Another major feature of strong consumption in 2007 is that the consumer confidence index reached a new high when the overall consumer price level rose sharply, which shows that urban and rural residents are optimistic about their future personal income and future living conditions. By analyzing the reasons for the accelerated consumption growth in 2007, we believe that the most important reason for the obvious improvement of consumption in China is that social security systems and social welfare systems such as minimum wage, minimum living security, medical insurance, retirement pension insurance and unemployment insurance were widely implemented in 2007. Only by eliminating the obstacles of urban and rural residents' consumption can we release the vitality of consumption. Therefore, with the further improvement of China's social security system, urban and rural residents are optimistic about the prospect of economic growth, and consumption in China will reach a new level in 2008, which will be fully reflected in high-end household consumer goods (such as new household appliances and digital information products), education, culture, medical care, family services and other daily consumption services.
The above factors show that the internal growth momentum of China's economy in 2008 is still very strong, but there are also some factors that inhibit economic growth. First of all, the prices of international and domestic resource products fluctuate. According to the commodity price index of the international market compiled by the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, under the influence of the sharp rise of agricultural products and oil prices, except for a few varieties, the prices of primary products in the international market range from 1 to1,and the overall price level has increased greatly. From 1 to 1 1, the spot and futures price indexes rose by 12.2 1% and 12.24% respectively. At the same time, the prices of domestic primary products, resource products and raw materials have accelerated. In June 10- 1 1, domestic steel and cement prices began to climb, and the prices of petroleum and chemical products increased greatly. This not only increases the production cost of enterprises, affects the production and operation of enterprises, but also increases the daily living expenses and consumption of urban and rural residents, which increases the uncertainty for the overall economic trend next year. Secondly, the long-standing structural contradictions in China's economy have not been resolved. First, domestic demand is insufficient. In 2007, China's trade export remained the main factor to promote the rapid economic growth. Although the government has adopted a variety of regulatory policies, such as canceling and reducing the export tax rebate rate of some products and restricting the export of "two high and one capital" products, the export growth momentum is still strong; Second, insufficient consumption. For many years, investment has been the main force driving the economy, and the investment structure is unreasonable. The investment growth rate of high energy consumption and high pollution industries is higher than the average growth rate; Third, excessive resource consumption and environmental pressure have restricted the sustainable development of the economy. In view of some unfavorable factors in economic development, the state has adopted a series of macro-control measures. The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on June 5438+February 2, 2007 1 day, saying that since June 5438+ 10/day, China will further adjust the import and export tariffs, and the overall level will remain unchanged at 9.8%, with the average tax rate of agricultural products being15.2. However, in 2008, we will continue to levy export tariffs on products such as coal, crude oil and metal ore at provisional rates, and will levy or increase export tariffs on products with high energy consumption and great environmental impact such as wood pulp, coke, ferroalloy, billet and some steel products. The government hopes to reduce the pressure of economic growth on the environment and reduce the dependence of the economy on exports by increasing the adjustment and implementation of export policies. The adjustment of economic policy is not only reflected in the export policy, but also the pricing mechanism of resource products and the intensity of land and environmental protection will be strengthened. After a period of transmission, the comprehensive effect of economic policy may be concentrated in 2008, and the recent signs of slowing export growth indicate that economic policy is playing a potential role. The synergy of various economic policies will greatly reduce the profits of enterprises that rely on the production, manufacturing and processing of resource products, and some enterprises that lack technical competitiveness will be forced to withdraw from the market. In addition, in order to prevent global inflation, the state has implemented a series of tight monetary policies with unprecedented frequency and intensity. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans rose from 6.39% in the first adjustment on March 2008 18 to 7.47% in the sixth adjustment at the end of the year. The increase in interest rates will reduce some overheated investments.
Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of various factors affecting China's economic operation shows that China's economy will still operate at a high level in 2008, but the speed will slow down slightly, with a drop of 1- 1.5 percentage points compared with 2007.