"The container price on the route from Guangzhou to the western United States has fallen below $3,000 /FEU, and the price in Ningbo has remained above $3,000 /FEU, which is as high as 85% compared with the container price of 202/KLOC-0 (the actual transaction may not be concluded)." Insiders of Sinotrans Group told the Securities Daily reporter.
Prior to this, the container price has been fried to one price a day, known as the "crazy box". September was originally the traditional peak season of the container transportation industry, but this traditional peak season seems a bit deserted this year, whether from the spot freight rate or from the freight forwarding business. Now the spot freight has dropped by more than 80%. Does it mean that the rising cycle of container transportation industry has completely ended and the prosperity of the industry has begun to decline?
Spot freight fell across the board.
Affected by global inflation and geographical factors, the global demand for container transportation continues to be weak, and the container freight rates of all trunk lines have fallen almost across the board.
According to the data released by Shanghai Stock Exchange on September 9th, last week, the SCFI index fell by 285.5 points to 2562. 12, with a decrease of 10.03%, further expanding the decrease of 9.7% in the previous week and falling back to the low point since late February 2020. Compared with the beginning of the year, the SCFI index has been close to "halved", down 43.9%.
The western route of the United States was once a popular route last year, but now, the container freight rate of the route from Shanghai to the western route of the United States is only $3,484 /FEU, with a weekly decline of 13.2 1%, down 44.9% year-on-year, and has fallen by more than 57% since the historical high point. The container freight rate on the eastern route of the United States has a relatively strong support, and the freight rate has fallen to 7767 US dollars /FEU, with a weekly decline of 6.62% and a drop of more than 35% from the historical high.
Container freight rates on European routes, which have always been stable, have also begun to fall. According to SCFI data, the container freight rate from Shanghai to Europe was $3,877 /TEU, down 8.8% from the previous month, down 48.2% from the same period last year, and down more than 50% from the historical high.
The price of Changxie has risen steadily.
As for the reasons for the sharp drop in the spot freight rate of containers, an industry insider in the shipping industry analyzed the "Securities Daily" reporter: "On the one hand, the growth rate of demand-side exports slowed down, and the global container cargo transportation volume decreased; On the other hand, congestion in most ports in the world has eased, and the supply and demand pattern of container ships has gradually turned loose. In 2023, new ship orders will usher in the peak of delivery, and the container transportation industry will have sufficient supply. The mismatch between supply and demand in the container transportation industry will be fundamentally solved, which will keep the freight rate under pressure. "
Guotai Junan Securities said in the research report that the global freight volume in July 2022 increased by 5% compared with the same period of 20 19. Among them, in June, the freight volume of Asia-North America route was still at a high level, the growth in peak season was weak, and the carrying rate decreased. The congestion situation in the inland and ports of the United States has been significantly alleviated, and the traditional peak season of booking and settlement prices of container transportation companies has begun to drop significantly.
Huatai Securities said in the research report that the third quarter is the traditional peak season of the container transportation industry, and goods are usually exported in September to meet the shelves and sales of Thanksgiving and Christmas goods. However, since September this year, the international container freight rate has started to accelerate. Among them, in the second week of September, the freight rates of American western routes/European routes both fell month-on-month, highlighting the lack of market volume. In terms of space supply, it is expected that the demand for space on European and American routes will exceed the supply in September. The suspended capacity of the European line has risen to 24% to cope with the impact of insufficient cargo.
"High energy prices, rising inflation, slowing physical consumption in Europe and America, and passive inventory accumulation all indicate that there is still a risk of further decline in container transportation demand in the fourth quarter of this year." Huatai Securities analyst Shen Xiaofeng said in the research report.
Jia, a registered international investment analyst, believes that even if the freight rate of spot freight forwarders has been falling, it will have little impact on shipping companies. The overall performance of A-share listed stocks in container transportation industry should be good, because the long-term cooperative price of shipping companies is rising, so the performance of the corresponding listed companies will not be too bad. The stock price is the expectation of the future freight rate, and I think the current market reaction is a bit excessive.
"Taking COSCO Air and Sea as an example, the long-term association ratio of its container transportation business is very high, which may exceed 60%. Moreover, the freight rate of the American Line Association has doubled year-on-year, and the one-year contract price of the European line has increased by 200% to 400% year-on-year. " Jia added that the performance of listed companies in the third quarter of this year may be basically the same as that in the second quarter, and the annual performance can basically be maintained at a high level.
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