short cut
Work in a hurry
Resource optimization
Resource smoothing
Analogy estimation: expert judgment+historical information
Parameter estimation: expert judgment+historical parameter model (statistical relationship, such as square feet under construction)
Three-point estimation
Bottom-up estimation
Data analysis: alternative analysis, reserve analysis (emergency reserve: unknown impact of identified risks, part of cost benchmark, management reserve: unknown time and impact of unidentified risks), quality cost (short-term cost late risk, risk invested to meet requirements but fail to meet standards,)
Audit of historical information: used for parameter estimation and analogy estimation;
Balance of funds constraints: when there is a difference between funds and expenditures, it is necessary to adjust the schedule to balance;
Financing: external access to project funds;
Project scope statement
Work breakdown structure
Wbs dictionary
The process of monitoring the project status to update the project cost and manage the change of the cost benchmark. If we only monitor the expenditure of funds without considering the value of the work completed by these expenditures, it is of no practical significance to the project, and we can only track the capital flow. The relationship between the capital expenditure of the project and the corresponding completed work should be emphatically analyzed.
Earned value analysis (PV without P, otherwise AC)
PV: planned workload x budgeted unit price.
EV: actual completed workload x budgeted unit price = total PV of total completed budget and actual completion rate of BAC X.
AC: actual completed workload x actual unit price
Deviation analysis (the bigger the EV, the better, and the EV will always be ahead in calculation)
Schedule deviation = EV-PV
Cost deviation = EV-AC
Progress performance index: SPI = EV/PV.
Cost performance index: CPI = EV/AC.
trend analysis
BAC: budget at completion, sum of all PV = planned unit price x planned total amount.
EAC: Estimation at completion. In the process of project implementation, re-estimate the cost of completing the whole project.
Calculation of atypical deviation (the previous estimated cost remains unchanged)
= actual cost+available cost for completing the remaining projects.
= AC + ETC = AC + (BAC - EV)
= total estimated cost-current cost deviation (no deviation in the future)
= BAC - CV
Typical deviation (this deviation will continue to exist in future projects, that is, some factors were not considered in the initial estimation)
= actual cost+remaining work budget re-estimated according to current performance indicator data.
= AC + ( BAC -EV)/(CPI*SPI)
= Total budget/cost performance indicator
= BAC / CPI
Completion performance index (TCPI)
In order to achieve specific management objectives (such as BAC, EAC), the cost performance indicators that must be achieved by using surplus resources.
= the ratio of the remaining work cost (ETC) to the remaining work reassessment budget.
= numerator denominator of BAC-CPI divided by numerator denominator.
= (atypical deviation) (BAC -EV)/(BAC-AC)
= (typical deviation, the total budget BAC becomes EAC) (BAC- EV)/(EAC-AC)
Project management system (belonging to internal operating environment factors):
Spreadsheets, simulation software and statistical analysis tools can be used to help estimate the cost. These tools can simplify the use of some cost estimation techniques and enable people to quickly consider various cost estimation schemes. 7.2 Cost estimation tools.
It is used to detect three EVM indicators of photovoltaic ev ac, draw a trend chart and predict the possible interval of the final project results. 7.4 Cost control tools.
net present value
Net present value refers to the difference between the present value of future capital (cash) inflow (income) and the present value of future capital (cash) outflow (expenditure). Basic indicators of net present value method in project evaluation. Convert future capital inflow and capital outflow into present value according to the present value coefficient of each period of the expected discount rate, and then determine their present value. This expected discount rate is determined according to the lowest investment return rate of the enterprise.
Calculation example:
Expected monetary value (EMV)
A statistical technique used to calculate the average results when certain situations may or may not occur in the future. Commonly used in decision tree analysis. (Analysis under Uncertainty) The EMV of an opportunity is usually expressed as a positive value, while that of a threat is expressed as a negative value. EMV is based on the assumption of risk neutrality, neither hedging nor taking risks.
For example, if all goes well in Project A, the probability of earning 200,000 yuan is 20%; Under normal circumstances, the probability of profit180,000 is 35%; In the case that all risks will occur, the probability of losing 200,000 yuan is 15%. So the project's
If all goes well in Project B, the probability of making a profit of 200,000 yuan is15%; Under normal circumstances, the probability of earning 400,000 is 50%; In the case that all risks will occur, the probability of losing 300 thousand is 20% The EMV of this project is 20x15%+40x50%+(-30x20%) =17 (ten thousand yuan).
Compared with two EMV values, project B is worth doing, because the EMV value of project B is higher.
Decision tree analysis
Decision tree analysis is to describe the potential consequences of a decision being considered and choosing an alternative in a graphic or tabular way, which is adopted when the consequences of some future situations or actions are uncertain. It comprehensively considers the relative probabilities and gains and losses of each logical path composed of events and decisions, and uses the expected monetary value (EMV) analysis to help organizations determine the relative values of various alternatives.
note:
1. Use "net path value", that is, subtract the cost from the income of each path.
When a project needs to make a decision, choose a scheme or determine whether there is a risk, decision tree provides a visual scientific method based on data analysis and demonstration. This method starts from the decision point, through strict logical deduction and step-by-step data calculation, and branches continuously according to various development possibilities of the analyzed problems. And determine the possibility and monetary value of each branch, calculate the expected value of profit and loss of each branch, and then take the maximum value of the expected value (if the minimum, the minimum value) as the basis for selection, so as to make rational and scientific decisions for determining projects, selecting schemes or analyzing risks.
Decision tree analysis function:
Using decision tree analysis:
1) decision trees contain decision points, which are usually represented by squares or squares, indicating that decision makers must make some choices; Opportunity points, represented by circles, usually indicate the existence of opportunities. Draw a box as the starting point, which is called the decision point;
2) Draw several branch lines (branch lines) from the decision point to the right, and each branch line represents a scheme, which is called scheme branch;
3) Draw a circle at the end of each scheme branch, which is called the state point;
4) estimate the probability of each scheme and record it on the branch of this scheme, which is called probability branch;
5) Estimate the profit and loss value generated after each scheme occurs, with gains expressed as positive values and losses expressed as negative values;
6) Calculate the expected value of each scheme, where the expected value = profit and loss value x the probability of the scheme;
7) If the problem only needs one-level decision, draw the end point at the end of the probability branch and write down the profit and loss value of each natural state;
8) If it is a multi-level decision, repeat the above steps with the decision point □ instead of the end point, and continue to draw the decision tree, as shown in figure 1
9) calculating the expected decision value, which is equal to the sum of the expected values of all the schemes generated by this decision;
10) make decisions according to decision expectations.
Annual depreciation amount = (original value-residual value of fixed assets) ╳ sum of useful life γ useful life ordinal number.
The formula for calculating depreciation according to the total number of years: annual depreciation rate = usable life of the current year/total usable life of each year = (estimated service life-used life)/[estimated service life × (estimated service life+1)÷2]
Annual depreciation rate = sum of usable life of the current year/usable life of each year = (estimated service life-used life)/[estimated service life × (estimated service life+1)÷2] annual depreciation amount = total depreciation to be accrued × annual depreciation rate.
There is a piece of equipment with an original value of 78,000 yuan and an estimated residual value of 2,000 yuan. It is estimated that it can be used for 4 years, and the annual depreciation is calculated according to the sum of the years.
Total years = 1+2+3+4= 10
The first year = (78000-2000) × (4/10) = 30400.
Second year = (78000-2000) × (3/10) = 22800.
Third year = (78000-2000) × (2/10) =15200.
The fourth year = (78000-2000) × (110) = 7600.
Extended data:
Advantages and disadvantages of the sum of years method;
Advantages: Because the original cost of assets is more consumed in the process of earning income in the early stage than in the later stage, the depreciation expense in the early stage should be greater than that in the later stage. In addition, the net income of assets in the later period is less than that in the earlier period, and even if the interest cost is not included, the net income of assets is reduced. Therefore, the accelerated depreciation method is reasonable in use, and it is also a method that tends to the law of cash receipts and payments.
Disadvantages: The factors that affect depreciation allocation cannot be fully considered and reflected.
The sum of years method is a kind of accelerated depreciation method of fixed assets. It is a method to calculate and determine the depreciation of fixed assets by multiplying the net value after subtracting the residual value from the original value of fixed assets by a decreasing score year by year.
Scope of application of the sum of years method:
1, due to technical progress, the product is updated quickly.
2. It is in a state of strong vibration and high corrosion all the year round.
Range benchmark:
Resource management plan:
Cost management plan: 7. 1 cost management output
Cost basis: 7.3 outputs of the budget.
Benchmarks of performance measurement: three benchmarks, scope cost progress benchmark.
Project document
Project progress plan
Estimated Cost 7.2.3. 1 First output of estimated cost
Estimating a second output of the estimated cost based on 7.2.3.2.
Risk register