Since the advent of the euro, the market generally believes that it is more expensive than the dollar. Historically (April 22, 2008) 1 Euro can be exchanged at most for 1.5998 USD. However, from the trend, the perception that the euro is more expensive than the dollar may be subverted. The outbreak of the epidemic has broken the original economic, social and financial ecology, and the money market is also experiencing a new "permutation and combination". Not only did the euro depreciate against the dollar, but also currencies such as the pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc showed the same trend, which meant that all countries could not bear the negative impact of interest rate hikes on economic development.
In contrast, the RMB is still very strong and flexible. Especially since the outbreak of the epidemic, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China has been very stable, the economy has maintained steady growth, and China's assets have been favored by the whole world. Since the beginning of the year, the RMB has depreciated by less than 5% against the US dollar. Even so, the related exchange rate between RMB and USD has changed in the past two years.
In recent years, the exchange rate between RMB and USD has gradually approached. Compared with the original exchange rate of 1:8, the current exchange rate of 1:6.7 indirectly shows that China's national strength is gradually increasing. So what happens if the exchange rate between RMB and USD becomes 1: 1? Some researchers in this field have given the answer to this question, but this answer is somewhat unexpected.
In the eyes of many people in China, RMB appreciation is a good thing. Some people even think that the exchange rate between RMB and USD should reach 1: 1. For some people who study abroad, the cost will be greatly reduced. But if the exchange rate really becomes 1: 1, what will be the impact?
What is the impact on the United States?
If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar really becomes 1: 1, the impact on the United States will be very obvious at first. As early as the last century, the US dollar was linked to international commodities such as gold and oil, so the US dollar has the corresponding characteristics of maintaining value, and the trade between countries began to use the US dollar one after another.
The dollar has a certain hegemonic position in the world, and the Federal Reserve can maintain the economic operation of the United States by issuing currency and harvesting high-quality assets of various countries. However, if RMB and USD really constitute the exchange rate of 1: 1, it is obvious that the dominance of USD in the world does not exist.
They can no longer get cheaper goods in import trade through currency advantage, nor can they harvest high-quality assets of other countries by issuing dollars and raising interest rates. This will cause a substantial blow to the American economy and also constitute a corresponding supply chain crisis. After all, unlike China, the self-sufficiency rate of various industries in the United States is still relatively low, and most commodities need to be imported to supplement. In the end, American prices will rise sharply, which will lead to serious inflation and bring obvious life pressure to the American people.
What's the impact on China?
Judging from the current situation, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remains at around 1: 6.7. If the exchange rate becomes 1: 1, it means that the RMB has appreciated. For some students studying abroad, the cost of studying in the United States is six or seven times that in China. If the exchange rate between RMB and USD becomes 1: 1, they will save a lot of money whether studying abroad, traveling or working. But in fact, if the exchange rate between RMB and USD becomes 1: 1, the result may be different from what we thought.
If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar becomes 1: 1, China's foreign trade will be hit first, and the blow will be devastating. With the continuous appreciation of RMB, domestic commodity prices will naturally rise relatively, which also means that the number of goods exported by China enterprises will decrease.
In fact, this is a great challenge for many export enterprises. The decline in commodity competitiveness and the slowdown in commodity sales will also affect the revenue data of export enterprises. From a macro perspective, China is currently the largest exporter in the world market, and the market income brought by export trade accounts for a large proportion of China's overall GDP. If exports are at a disadvantage, the whole national economy will be frustrated and economic development will slow down.
In addition to foreign trade, exports and other real economies, China's financial industry will also be greatly affected. At present, China holds nearly 1 trillion US dollars of US Treasury bonds, which is the lowest level since June 20 10. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar reaches 1: 1, this part of debt will depreciate. Moreover, the appreciation of RMB will enable many countries to settle foreign trade goods in RMB, while banks in China can only print a large number of RMB holdings, resulting in RMB inflation.
The exchange rate ratio between them can't reach 1: 1.
Generally speaking, the flat exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will cause a very obvious blow to the economies of the two countries and bring a lot of troubles to people's lives. So, is it possible that the exchange rate between RMB and USD will be even in the future?
Judging from the current market situation, the epidemic has had a very obvious impact on the American economy and industrial market. In order to ease the economic tension, the Federal Reserve began to print and issue large amounts of dollars. To some extent, this led to the decline of the US dollar index and the depreciation of the US dollar. However, China's current market economy is relatively stable, and there is definitely room for RMB appreciation in the future. However, it is definitely impossible for the RMB to truly achieve parity with the US dollar in a short time.
Because this will have a certain impact on China and the United States, and it will also have a corresponding adverse impact on the transactions in the whole event market. China and the United States will adjust the currency exchange rate according to the corresponding situation, and it is impossible for the two currencies to form a unified exchange rate.
If this happens, it will have a very serious negative impact on China's economy. You know, the products produced by our country's factories in the world are cheap and good, and sold all over the world. However, once the exchange rate rises, the advantage of China's cheap products will no longer exist.
The export competitiveness of China commodities will be greatly weakened. In the eyes of many Americans, our products are good and cheap, and they can buy the same goods at a very low price. If the prices of the two products are the same, Americans will naturally choose their own domestic products instead of China's.
Therefore, although RMB appreciation is inevitable, it cannot be accelerated. At present, China's economic development is in a critical period of rising. At this time, if the exchange rate between RMB and USD fluctuates too much, it will probably affect the economic development of China. If it is serious, some domestic enterprises will fall into bankruptcy crisis, and for ordinary people, the pressure of life will increase.
Although the United States will shake the hegemony of the dollar because of the appreciation of the RMB, according to the measurement standard, China's loss is much higher than that of the United States. With the continuous improvement of China's economy, the future RMB exchange rate 1: 1 is very close to us. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar really becomes 1: 1, then what we can do is to accept it calmly.