The price of live pigs has fallen for six weeks in a row. What is the reason for the decline? I think it is closely related to slaughter enterprises. Whether the pig price rises again or continues to fall mainly depends on the mentality of pig farmers. In the face of this wave of decline, if pig farmers have a stable mentality and can withstand the pressure of price reduction, they will rise quickly if they fall. If pig farmers can't sell pigs, the price reduction of slaughter enterprises will fail, and it will also usher in an increase. The overall increase in pig prices may also be limited, and there is no possibility of a sharp increase or a sustained sharp increase in the short term, and the overall price will rebound. Many netizens believe that the pig price has risen sharply in the past 20 days, and farmers may trample on the market, which may cause consumption constraints to overlap, and the pig price may have the risk of collapse! However, the sharp rise in pig prices will inevitably lead to a slowdown in the pace of de-capacity, and the pressure for pig prices to rise again will be even greater. Therefore, after the short-term strength of pig prices, it is still possible to double bottom.
What is the most important factor that determines the price of live pigs? At present, the stock of fertile sows is still high, and the productivity improvement is not obvious. The overall decline is low, less than 5% in three months. Therefore, the elimination is not strong. If the price of live pigs does not continue to decline, it will not stimulate farms to accelerate the elimination of fertile sows. According to the current market situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will hardly increase significantly before the second quarter of 2022.
What are the factors that affect the price of pork? Factors affecting pork price include pig breeding cost, seasonal factors, market transportation, improper macro-control, etc. The cost of breeding fundamentally determines the price of pigs. Once the prices of corn, piglets and soybean meal in the market rise, the cost of raising pigs will increase greatly, which will lead to the rise of pork prices. Due to the hot weather in summer, people's intake of meat is relatively small, and their diet is relatively light, which reduces the demand for pork by a large number of people to a certain extent, leading to a decline in pork prices.
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