Nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit the daily limit, with an increase of 15%, which was the second consecutive day of increase.
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Nickel fluctuates greatly, and Founder suggests cautious participation in the medium term.
(Reporter Ma Shuang) After the resumption of trading in March 16, Lenny Futures experienced four consecutive daily limit, and the decline narrowed on the 22nd and the daily limit on the 23rd, which led to the daily limit of Shanghai Nickel Futures on the 24th. Alvin Wong and Liu Chongna of Founder Mid-term Futures Research Institute released a research report on 24th, saying that there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the current geopolitical situation and nickel long-short game, and there are differences between domestic and international supply and demand patterns. It is suggested that domestic investors participate in nickel trading cautiously.
From the cost point of view, before the international geopolitical situation escalated, European energy prices rose sharply. The above analysts said that Russia is an important energy producer, and about 40% of Europe's natural gas supply comes from Russia. The geopolitical situation intensifies the energy shortage pattern, which leads to the rising cost of non-ferrous metals smelting, which in turn boosts the price of non-ferrous metals in Europe and even the world.
On the import side, according to the data of the General Administration of Customs, China imported 37,573 tons of refined nickel from June to February, 2022, up 90.53% year-on-year. The above analysts said that in March, due to geopolitical conflicts and the skyrocketing nickel market, domestic nickel imports were at a loss most of the time. However, after the London Metal Exchange (LME) adjusted its rules and strengthened its supervision, the price of nickel in Shanghai dropped sharply. During this period, the domestic nickel futures in Shanghai basically kept a stable fluctuation trend, the degree of upside down in the commodity market continued to narrow, and the Shanghai-Shanghai ratio gradually returned to the normal range. On March 23rd, China nickel imports turned losses into profits again. It is expected that the reopening of the import window will be beneficial to the recovery of subsequent nickel imports.
In terms of delivery, the market is worried that Russian nickel plates and other non-ferrous metals cannot be delivered in LME market. However, on March 22, LME said that there is no plan to take independent actions outside the scope of unified sanctions in Europe and America, and there is no plan to restrict the circulation of Russian-made non-ferrous metals in the LME trading system. The above analysts said that despite this, some industrial chain enterprises are still worried about purchasing non-ferrous metals produced in Russia or facing the risk of being sanctioned by western countries, resulting in limited actual procurement of Russian nickel. Considering that the nickel market as a whole is in a state of low inventory and tight supply, and the western sanctions against Russia do not involve the field of non-ferrous metals, it is not ruled out that Russian nickel will resume normal supply or even physical delivery in the future, thus effectively supplementing the market supply, which will put strong pressure on nickel prices at that time. In addition, if Russian nickel can successfully enter the domestic market, the fear of supply shortage in the domestic nickel market may also be dispelled.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the above analysts said that it is expected that the short-term international nickel market will continue to fluctuate at a high level. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation is not clear in the short term, the international supply of nickel in Russia is uncertain, and the market has great differences on the supply expectation of nickel. According to the data released by the International Nickel Industry Research Organization (INSG), the global nickel market had an oversupply of 6,000 tons in June of this year from 5438+ 10, while the supply in the same period last year was short of 5,300 tons. INSG also predicts that there will be a supply shortage of 65,438+05.75438+00,000 tons in the global nickel market in 2022. Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) predicts that the global primary nickel supply and demand will turn from a shortage of 202 1 to a surplus in 2022, and there are structural problems in the change of supply and demand. It is expected that nickel pig iron will turn into rhythmic surplus with high probability, which will drive the primary nickel surplus. The short-term supply and demand pattern of stainless steel raw materials such as nickel sulfate may be relatively tight due to production capacity structure and process problems, but it will gradually be surplus in the medium and long term.
On the other hand, since the end of February this year, the international situation has been turbulent, and the core of the game, such as domestic crude oil and non-ferrous metals, which are greatly affected by the external market, has gradually deviated from the fundamentals, and the supply and transportation logistics restrictions caused by the geopolitical situation have become the core contradictions. After LME suspended nickel trading in early March, the delivery problem became the core issue. Lenny fell for four consecutive trading days after the resumption of trading, which delayed all nickel contracts that should have been delivered between 16 and 22 until March 23. Due to the adjustment of delivery rules, it is not excluded that short positions may lead to large price fluctuations. But in the medium term, the delivery problem will not be the core factor that dominates the price. In addition, according to the LME's adjusted rules, the official price was not quoted until the 22nd since the resumption of trading on March16th. The official price is used by spot industries and financial institutions as the pricing benchmark for day trading and product equity settlement, but the current stagnation of downstream purchase and sale also reflects the market's disapproval of LME price.
The above analysts said that after the resumption of trading in March 16, there were many invalid transactions. In addition, after this round of violent fluctuation, the trading volume of nickel market decreased obviously, and at the same time, low trading volume would aggravate price fluctuation. At present, the long-short game is still very fierce. To participate in international nickel trading, we should reasonably evaluate our own risk tolerance, specific models of physical goods, violent market fluctuations, exchange rate, time difference, freight and many other factors, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. In addition, domestic nickel industry chain customers can strengthen risk management operations according to their own risk exposure, and use the domestic futures market to conduct "two locks and one drop" hedging transactions to protect the smooth operation of the enterprise itself.