After experiencing the worst economic recession since the Great Depression, the global economy ushered in an unstable New Year. There are signs that the worst may have basically passed. Entering 202 1, there will be more and more opportunities. The COVID-19 epidemic provides investors with a new perspective to explore the mode of economic growth. The following is the global economic forecast of 202 1 how to invest collected by Bian Xiao. I hope I can help you.
202 1 global economic forecast
From the investment point of view, 202 1 will be more attractive than most years. The largest institution on Wall Street predicts that with the popularization of vaccines and the introduction of more fiscal stimulus measures, the global economy will gradually rebound. New investment opportunities will appear in many fields such as network economy, commodities, green economy and emerging markets.
Institutional optimistic prediction
The global economic growth rate may exceed 6% next year.
Compared with the negative growth of the global economy in 2020, all major institutions have shown optimistic expectations. The most optimistic analysts are Morgan Stanley, who predict that the global economy will grow by 6.4% next year and maintain the expectation of V-shaped recovery. Economists at Citigroup are not so confident. They expect the global economy to grow by 5%. It is understood that even if there is an economic rebound, employment and inflation in most parts of the world will still be under pressure, which requires central banks to maintain a loose monetary policy this year.
As many countries are fighting the COVID-19 epidemic, it is expected that the new year will have a difficult start. However, fiscal stimulus and widespread distribution of vaccines will promote economic growth. Global inflation may remain low, and interest rates in many countries may remain near zero.
However, Citigroup believes that although the uneven recovery of the global economy will be a problem, the growth expectation is quite clear. The emergence of vaccine is a shot in the arm and will lay a solid foundation for economic growth. Even so, it is unrealistic to fully return to the pre-epidemic economic level in 20021year, because it is estimated that the vaccine will not be fully rolled out and injected in emerging markets until 2022.
Goldman Sachs Group believes that just as the global market will rebound rapidly from the blockade in 2020, it is expected that the promotion of vaccination will further boost economic growth when the European blockade ends. In the next few years, central banks in developed markets may take a moderate route. Even if the economic growth is predicted to rebound strongly, the labor market will only recover gradually, and inflation still seems to be lower than the central bank's target.
Morgan Stanley is relatively the most optimistic, with the global economic growth forecast of 6.4% in 20021year. The Bank believes that the global economy will rebound to the level before the outbreak of COVID-19 in the second quarter of 20021year. Despite the rapid acceleration of economic growth, the policy is still very loose, laying the foundation for rising inflation, and both developed and emerging markets are pushing the next stage of global inflation.
On the premise of economic recovery and growth, many institutions believe that the following four parts will be the key investment areas of 20021. The network economy continues to prosper.
Leading the Asia-Pacific region
In view of the repeated epidemics in many areas, the economic blockade has not been interrupted, and the online economic prosperity formed in 2020 is far from over. In fact, buying goods and services online is an important part of the "new normal", which means that the e-commerce market will grow further. According to Statista's research, the global retail e-commerce sales totaled 3.53 trillion US dollars, and it is expected to increase to an astonishing 6.54 trillion US dollars by 2022.
The Asia-Pacific region may be one of the fastest growing regions in this field. In fact, the American market research company Frest predicts that the growth rate of online retail sales in the Asia-Pacific region will climb from10.5 trillion US dollars in 20 19 to 2.5 trillion US dollars in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of1/0.3%. This forecast is based on 1 1 data of Asia-Pacific countries-Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. China is clearly the leader in the region. According to Frest's estimation, in 2020, China's online retail market has accounted for half of the global share, and by 2024, this market will reach 2 trillion US dollars.
The high popularity of smartphones in Asia explains this trend well. In Asia, more than 3/4 of online retailing is conducted on mobile devices. Unlike Europe and America, smart phones are the first choice for online shopping in Asia-Pacific countries. In 2020, 75.8% of online retail sales will use the smartphone platform, and it is estimated that by 2024, the online retail sales realized on smartphones will reach 2 trillion US dollars.
Restorative growth of commodities
Energy and metals led the gains.
As an asset class, the commodity industry is one of the categories most seriously affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. However, with the gradual relaxation of blockade restrictions, demand will continue to recover, and 202 1 goods will increase substantially. In fact, commodities have begun to recover, and prices rose sharply in June165438+1October. According to the data of the World Bank, the price of energy commodities rose by 6.4%, while the price of non-energy commodities rose by 4.4%. Food prices also rose by 5.6%, and basic metal prices rose by 6.0%.
The World Bank also believes that this upward trend will continue in 20021year. The World Bank predicts that with the slow recovery of demand and the gradual relaxation of supply restrictions, oil prices will rise moderately at 202 1, which is higher than previously expected. In addition, the prices of metals and agricultural products (7.200, 0. 15, 2. 13%) will increase moderately at 202 1. However, it also warned that the epidemic may last longer than expected, especially in the case of the second wave of epidemic in the northern hemisphere, which may pose a major risk to the recovery of commodity prices.
Goldman Sachs is even more optimistic about the commodity prospect of 202 1, believing that the industry will surely rise sharply again. Last June, 5438+065438+ 10, Goldman Sachs predicted that the S&P/ Goldman Sachs Commodity Index would achieve a return of 27% in June, including a return of 19.2% for precious metals, 40. 1% for energy, 3% for industrial metals and 3% for industrial metals. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that with the recovery of demand and the limited supply, there will be a new bull market cycle for 202 1 commodities, and advocated the establishment of long positions.
Sustainable investment and sustainable development
Climate is the key.
ESG (Environment, Society and Governance) investment is one of the hottest investment themes in 2020. Many people predict that investment in influence and social responsibility will develop rapidly in the next few years.
Responsible investment is promoting profound changes in investment methods, which requires institutions to seriously consider the values related to sustainable development when investing or building a portfolio. As ESG data becomes widely available in asset management companies, this growth trajectory is unlikely to slow down in the short term. According to the data of Opimas, a capital market consulting company, in the past four years, the scale of assets managed by ESG standards has increased significantly, from $22.9 trillion in 20 16 to more than $40 trillion in 2020, and sustainable investment will continue to grow in 20021year and beyond.
According to a report released by the American Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment, the sustainable investment strategies registered in the United States have increased by 42% in two years: from $65,438+02 trillion at the beginning of 2065,438+08 to $65,438+07.1trillion, and sustainable investment strategies have accounted for 33% of all asset management funds.
The report also points out that climate change is the most important theme in ESG in 2020 in terms of asset weight. From 20 18 to 2020, the assets subject to this standard increased by 39%, reaching 4.2 trillion US dollars. Among insurance companies and pension institutions, climate change is still the most important sustainable investment issue, which affects 2.6 trillion US dollars of investment funds, 65,438+07% more than 2065,438+08.
Emerging markets continue to rebound.
China took the lead.
For most of 2020, the performance of emerging markets will be as bad as that of developed markets. However, on June 5438+ 10, MSCI Emerging Markets Index rebounded sharply, which not only made up for the past losses, but also exceeded the developed markets. The annual rate of return will reach 15% in 2020. The agency predicts that the valuation of emerging markets is attractive, emerging countries are more capable of coping with the epidemic, and this rebound will continue.
Asia tends to dominate emerging markets, accounting for 80% of the total market value of emerging markets and 75% of the market value of MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Before the outbreak, many of the fastest growing economies in the world were located in Asia, and these economies are likely to become the fastest growing leaders again in 20021year.
As far as global emerging markets are concerned, the negative impact of COVID-19 epidemic on countries such as Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa is greater than that on Asia. Although the performance of emerging markets may be mixed next year, there are few pessimistic expectations for Asia, especially China. On the whole, the prospects of emerging markets are generally good next year, and the return rate of emerging market stocks is expected to reach 7.9%, mainly thanks to China. Northern Trust Company predicts that China's economic growth will reach 8% in 20021year.
Credit Suisse Bank predicts that Asian stock markets will achieve attractive returns in 20021year, given that COVID-19 epidemic has been effectively controlled in most parts of Asia and China's economy is the first to recover. The valuation of the stock market in this region seems to have reflected the good economic prospects to a great extent, and the sustained recovery of profits will be the key to push the market higher. The broader economic recovery and the strong growth of technology stocks should support corporate profits.
In view of the persistence of ultra-low interest rates and the Fed's strategy of keeping the inflation rate above 2%, many people now predict that 202 1 USD will weaken, which will further support emerging markets. BNP Paribas pointed out: Historically, a weaker dollar is good news for emerging markets: it stimulates capital flows to emerging markets, boosts commodity prices and supports emerging market currencies.
In its 20021Outlook, JPMorgan Chase is also optimistic about emerging market stocks, saying that technology is an important part of emerging markets. Today, the technology sector accounts for nearly 20% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, compared with 65,438+00% in 2007, when the commodity sector accounted for nearly 65,438+0/3 of the index.