After the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic, westerners concocted the argument of "China demand" to mislead the market, and international traders and suppliers pushed up food prices one after another. Combined with the rising commodity prices, uneven grain reserves in various countries, extreme weather and other factors, international food prices were pushed up continuously.

The conflict between the world's two major food exporting countries has seriously affected the normal international food trade and further promoted the rise of international food prices.

It is reported that from 2020 to March 2022, the global food price index rose by more than 65%, reaching 170. 1, a record high.

Although food prices continue to rise, there is actually no shortage of food in the world. In recent years, the world grain output has increased year by year, from 2.65 billion tons in 20 18 to 2.8 billion tons in 20021year. According to CCTV financial report, the global per capita disposable grain is 7 10 Jin.

Why is the international food price soaring?

This should start with the oil that determines the development of the country.

In order to support Ukraine, European and American countries have forged an issue with Russia, and the energy war between the two sides has also become a part of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Russia actively cut off the energy supply to many European countries, and in order to get rid of the restrictions on Russia, Germany and other EU member States are likely to impose an embargo on Russian oil, while the United States prohibits domestic enterprises from importing crude oil originating in Russia.

Under the influence of many factors, the global crude oil supply is further tightening. At present, NYMEX crude oil futures rose by 4.48% to 106.335438+0 USD/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 2.36% to 108.75438+0 USD/barrel.

If there is a shortage of oil, it will "burn grain", and 29 countries have burned 300 million tons of grain.

In order to minimize the impact of rising crude oil prices on economic development, in mid-April, US President Biden announced that he would take urgent measures to expand the sales of biofuels and allow more E 15 gasoline containing ethanol to be sold throughout the United States.

Biofuels include bioethanol and biodiesel, in which bioethanol is mainly processed from corn or sugarcane, and biodiesel is mainly processed from palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil.

In order to solve the problem of oil shortage, European and American countries have begun to "burn grain" because it is more economical to burn grain when the price of crude oil exceeds $70/barrel.

It is reported that in 20021year, the United States produced about 45 million tons of ethanol and needed 654.38+35 million tons of corn, while the production of biodiesel in the United States also consumed 4.85 million tons of soybean oil.

This year, the demand for energy and food is even greater. According to the data of the International Grain Council, in 20021/22, the grain consumed in the production of biofuels in the United States was about 65.438+700 million tons, and only 32.9 million tons were used for grain, a difference of about five times.

According to incomplete statistics, in 20021year, the United States, the European Union and Brazil consumed 300 million tons of grain in the production of biofuels.

On the one hand, it is burning food, on the other hand, it is robbing food. Recently, the United Nations said that 654.38+07 billion people around the world will be trapped in poverty and hunger, and there will be no food to eat.

Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa have sounded "hunger alerts".

At the same time, the United States has lifted the ban on the sale of high-proportion ethanol gasoline in summer. I'm afraid this ban will not be restored until the international oil price drops sharply, which means that the United States will burn more food, and other countries may follow suit.

The four major international grain merchants took the opportunity to make crazy profits.

It is naive to think that burning grain is only to solve the problem of oil shortage, because some people take the opportunity to control profits behind their backs. They are the four largest grain merchants in the world.

The financial reports of ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus in 20021year show that their turnover and profits have increased greatly, among which Bunge and Louis Dreyfus' annual profits have increased by 8 1.5% and 82.5% respectively, Cargill's profits have increased slightly, and the four major international grain traders have increased by 2002/kloc-0.

In this way, it involves a huge capital chain. The United States incited the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, affecting food exports and oil exports. After the tight oil supply, they can openly "burn grain", further aggravating the tight international food supply situation, and the four major grain merchants took the opportunity to speculate on prices.

As a matter of fact, Wall Street capital has bought a lot of grain futures long before the expected price rise, and now it is time for them to earn the difference after the price rise.

Ironically, they also attributed the rise in food prices to the global food shortage and "China demand".

Although China imported 654.38+65 million tons in 20021year, China's own grain output was 680 million tons. In addition to soybeans, we can say that our "rice bowl" is firmly in our own hands, and we have not relied too much on imported food, nor have we added chaos to international food prices.