However, there are still pessimistic expectations in the market, that is, the world economy will enter an era of deflation and depression. If so, the bull market of gold may also reverse.
Krugman, a Nobel laureate in economics, recently pointed out that both the United States and Europe seem to be heading for a Japanese-style deflation dilemma. "Governments around the world have shown excessive concern about inflation, but in fact the real threat comes from deflation." At present, the yield of 2-year Treasury bonds in the United States has fallen to a record low, the yield of 10 Treasury bonds has fallen below 3%, and the yield of 30-year long-term Treasury bonds has fallen below 4%, which seems to point to a deflationary environment. At the same time, the sharp adjustment of the stock market has also been interpreted by some market participants as a signal of a double dip in the economy.
Following the rescue measures of printing presses in 2009, it seems that governments all over the world hope to realize the reconstruction of future monetary policy by withdrawing from a series of economic stimulus plans. The recent G20 summit reached a resolution to halve the fiscal deficit in 20 13. Eurozone countries also hope to solve the European sovereign debt crisis by reducing deficits.
This way of tightening one's belt to survive the crisis will increase the probability of deflation and lengthen the process of economic recovery. If this model is put into practice, the gold bull market based on excess liquidity and inflation expectations may come to an abrupt end.
The plunge in gold should still have a great impact on the world economy. If the plunge in gold is a sign that the US economy has improved (because the dollar is directly linked to gold), or everyone predicts that the US economy has not improved, it is hard to say. Perhaps the IMF will consider decoupling gold and the dollar. At that time, the hegemony of the dollar may be lost, and it will stand as a strong currency in the world, perhaps the RMB.
The gold bull market has insufficient stamina.
The crisis is the booster of this gold bull market. The European debt crisis has attracted a large amount of funds to enter the gold and dollar markets to hedge, boosting the strength of the gold price and the dollar. However, both the euro and the pound rebounded strongly against the US dollar on Thursday, indicating that the panic of the European debt crisis in the capital market has temporarily come to an end.
Summer is the off-season of gold consumption. "At present, the contribution of the second round to the gold bull market will not be great. Therefore, the recent gold bull market supported by only one leg has been particularly volatile. If it is found that when this only support leg is unwilling to continue to support the upward trend of gold price, the risk of local adjustment of gold price will undoubtedly increase greatly. " Yang Yijun said.
Judging from the long-short game in the gold market, the multi-headed troops have no bullets to "pursue the victory". Since June, the growth rate of physical gold in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has slowed down significantly. On Thursday, its gold holdings dropped from a historical high of 1.22 tons to 1.3 19.22 tons, the first time since June.
Chen Yiqun, a researcher in the gold industry in Shanghai, pointed out: "At present, the long positions of gold ETF, CFTC (American Commodity Futures Trading Commission) and COMEX (New York Commodity Futures Exchange) are all at a high level, especially the recent CFTC position report shows that retail investors have held more than 50,000 lots. History has proved that the explosive follow-up of retail bulls is often the time for market adjustment. Therefore, if prices fall in the future, ETFs will no longer add positions, and the price of gold will be adjusted in the short term. "
Jiang Shu, a gold analyst at Industrial Bank, said: "The sharp drop in gold with the US dollar may indicate that the panic of the European debt crisis has weakened, rather than what the market generally thinks."
Even if the theme of sovereign debt crisis can be further developed, its boost to gold and the dollar may not be smooth and sustained.
Yang Yijun, chief analyst of Weixin, pointed out that there are two legs supporting the bull market of gold: one is the demand for gold investment and speculation, and the other is the demand for physical consumption of gold.
Yang Yijun pointed out: "From the performance of the fund in the gold futures market last week, there was a more obvious deviation between long and short, and the fund showed a situation of long and short going hand in hand. In addition, commercial organizations have once again significantly increased their hedging operations. Last week, the capital trend of the whole market was the increasingly intense capital allocation pattern in the market. We should be careful of the great possibility that (gold) will peak this week. "
Technically, gold is also facing a medium-term adjustment. Yang Yijun pointed out that in terms of time cycle, this week is the second1week after the gold price bottomed out, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the possibility that the gold price will peak in stages this week. "In previous years, the bull market in the middle of the gold price was often difficult to last for 2 1 week, and most of them reached the top of the important stage around 19 weeks."
Analysts believe that gold will start a wave of medium-term adjustment at present. Yang Yijun pointed out: "After the structural adjustment of the gold market, the price of gold will be higher and higher. The adjustment target should be below $65,438+$0,200. " Chen Yiqun believes that gold has fallen below the rising channel since March, and the bottom of this round of depth adjustment is tentatively 1 100 USD/oz.