The long-term trend of crude oil price is mainly determined by the fundamental factors of crude oil supply and demand. Because crude oil is a non-renewable resource and the short-term supply elasticity of crude oil is small, the most important factor affecting crude oil price is the world economic development that determines the demand for crude oil without the discovery of new large-scale oil fields and the emergence of major technological innovations.

2. Oil inventory-affecting the expectation of oil price fluctuation

Petroleum inventory is divided into commercial inventory and strategic reserve. The main purpose of commercial inventory is to ensure that enterprises can operate efficiently under the seasonal fluctuation of oil demand, and at the same time prevent the potential shortage of crude oil supply. The main purpose of the national strategic reserve is to deal with the oil crisis.

Among the factors that affect the rise and fall of spot crude oil price, the influence of oil inventory on oil price is more complicated. When the futures price is much higher than the spot price, oil companies tend to increase commercial inventory and reduce current supply, thus stimulating the spot price to rise and reducing the spot price difference of futures. When the futures price is lower than the spot price, oil companies tend to reduce the commercial inventory and increase the current supply, which leads to the decline of the spot price and a reasonable price difference with the futures price.

3. Oil production cost

As a kind of non-renewable energy, the production cost of oil will affect the intertemporal production allocation decision of producers, and then affect the market supply, indirectly causing oil price fluctuations. The lower limit of the world oil price is generally determined by the oil production in high-cost areas, and the oil in low-cost areas determines the price fluctuation range.

4. Exchange rate factor

Among the factors that affect the rise and fall of spot crude oil prices, since international crude oil transactions are mainly denominated in US dollars, the US dollar exchange rate is also one of the important factors that affect the rise and fall of crude oil prices. When the dollar appreciates, the international prices of raw materials for commodities such as gold, oil and copper are under downward pressure. On the contrary, when the dollar depreciates, the price of such goods will rise.

5. World economic development

The growth of the global economy will affect oil prices by changing the demand in the oil market. There is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and oil demand growth. The changing trend of oil price is roughly consistent with that of American GDP. The global economic situation plays a vital role in the change of oil prices.

6. Development of alternative energy sources

As can be seen from the energy consumption structure diagram, up to now, oil consumption still ranks first. Oil cannot be replaced by other resources in the short term, and the demand for oil will remain at a high level in the short term.

7. Emergencies and climatic conditions

In addition to the attributes of general commodities, oil also has the attributes of strategic materials, and its price and supply are greatly influenced by political forces and situations. Competing for oil resources and controlling the oil market have become important reasons for oil market turmoil and soaring oil prices. The tense geopolitics has strengthened the expectation of supply contraction in the international oil market. Geopolitical factors such as terrorist attacks on oil facilities, strikes by oil workers and political turmoil in oil-producing countries will all have an impact on international oil prices.

8. International oil speculation-exacerbating short-term fluctuations in oil prices.

At present, in the international oil futures market, the operation of international speculative capital is a factor that cannot be ignored. Speculation and market expectation in the crude oil market often increase the fluctuation of crude oil prices. The influence of speculative factors in the international crude oil market on crude oil prices is 10%-20%. Especially when some unexpected events happen, a large amount of speculative capital operates in the international crude oil futures market, which intensifies the turmoil of international oil prices.

9, people's expectations-psychological factors contribute to oil price fluctuations.

In recent years, the depreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of inflation have made a large number of investment funds choose to invest in oil for a long time to avoid inflation risks. In a short period of time, a large amount of speculative capital entered the oil market and used various expectations or themes to speculate, which amplified the upward trend of oil prices.