Current location - Trademark Inquiry Complete Network - Futures platform - Ten years on the kitchen knife of futures (15): Why futures trading is not easy to succeed
Ten years on the kitchen knife of futures (15): Why futures trading is not easy to succeed
After I finished talking with Ms. Li, I went back to see Wang Guiyu to see his opinion. This year is 20 13. I don't remember the past few years very clearly, so according to the general memories of the past, I wrote down some thoughts and feelings at that time, hoping to help you. Wang Guiyu's health recovered quickly. After examination in Cixi Hospital, except for a few abnormal indexes, his liver disease has recovered. By the end of summer and early autumn, agricultural products in the futures market were still fluctuating at a low level, and industrial products continued to rebound at a high level after falling sharply. Seeing all this, Wang Guiyu lamented that he had lost a good opportunity to make a profit on industrial products. Considering his physical condition, we have an in-depth conversation about the future every day. As for his previous practical operation method, he thinks that he learned all aspects of futures operation technology before he found a suitable operation method. In order to find out this method that suits him successfully, he paid a great sacrifice and bought it at a great cost of body and money. This method can't be grafted to another person casually. I asked him why. He replied: "Futures operation seems very simple, but actually involves all aspects. Just like everyone has different genes and different fingerprints, if everyone participates in futures operation, they will show different operation methods, but they will never change, and futures operation cannot be separated from these operation methods: although there are many operation methods, they can be roughly summarized as: "JZQJCZF method. GDDSH method,. BDCZ method. Of course, it is SYQSZZ method, and my own comprehensive operation method. I call it SYTPCZ method. " "Everyone should realize that they are suitable for that operation method, but there are still many ways to go to know what operation method they are suitable for. Because of the cruelty of the futures market, most people are ruthlessly eliminated by the futures market before they come into contact with the operation methods that suit them. This is impossible. This is the mechanism of getting rich in the futures market. " "In that case." Teacher Wang replied: "I don't have much research in theory, but as I mentioned above, most people have been eliminated from the futures market before finding a suitable operation method, so it is of no practical significance to discuss this issue." Of course, if you have the guidance of your predecessors, you can naturally shorten the path of some people's exploration, which is of course the best, but you must go by yourself and transform the operation style of your predecessors into a style suitable for your own operation. The analysis of Buffett and Soros, two world masters, shows that they have not obtained any qualification certificates for financial markets so far. Whether these two masters should avoid or simply give up in the annual review of institutions such as the CSRC, they scoff at the so-called qualification certificates. On the other hand, in China, it is difficult for you to work in a futures company without a certificate, as can be seen from the recruitment announcements of futures companies, but the result is that futures companies are all young people with certificates and have no actual combat experience. Their experience is definitely not as strong as that of small retail investors with actual combat experience. " "According to you, where is the real master? Don't futures companies have good traders? " "It can't be said that short-term traders are of course in futures companies. They create expenses for futures companies with tiny points, but people with long-term operating experience and their own futures ideas are definitely not employed in futures companies. In China, the real futures experts are in the private sector, and I am convinced of this! " "For futures, most people don't understand. People rush into the market with money, imagining that they can easily beat this market with the successful experience of other commercial industries. It's all wet. " "Why is futures so difficult to do?"

"I have talked about the characteristics of the difficult operation of the futures market. In addition to these characteristics, the futures market has several more special attributes, which are different from the characteristics of general business activities and are not understood by ordinary people. Specifically, the futures market has the following three characteristics. " Speaking of this, Mr. Wang wrote three English letters ABC with a pen to emphasize the importance of these characteristics. The following are his three contents:

A: Leverage in the futures market: on the surface, leverage magnifies the gains, but in fact it magnifies the defects of human nature, namely greed and fear. In the face of leverage, the weakness of human nature has been fully explained. God gave you strength, but you abused it. B: the unpredictability of the futures market: the future is unpredictable. No matter how clever you are, you can't accurately predict the future. In the past 50 years, economists' predictions about the economic future are mostly wrong. Speculative market, you can't predict, you can't accurately predict the trend of tomorrow, and you can't predict the trend of the day after tomorrow. So you use prediction to make a market, which is doomed to your failure. C: Timing of the futures market: Because of leverage, the price fluctuates a little, and the profit on your disk fluctuates greatly. Because you can't accurately predict the future, if you enter the warehouse earlier or later, you may be kicked off the bus or get on the bus in time. If you judge correctly, it will be difficult to make money. Compared with the stock market, futures need more accurate timing, which is why it is more difficult to operate futures with fundamentals. "The futures market is very complex and needs simple methods to deal with it. Dealing with complex markets requires simple thinking, just like martial arts. " To tell the truth, I don't quite understand what Mr. Wang said, but from these words, I deeply felt his profound understanding of the futures market. I'm glad I didn't misread his futures market skills. What is commendable about Mr. Wang is that he is not only rich in actual combat experience, but more importantly, he can sublimate his actual combat experience into a theoretical summary. It seems that he has a deep understanding of various schools of futures market theory. Without an eclectic browse and study of futures theory, you will not fall into the quagmire of empiricism by summing up and perfecting your own experience, which is a mistake that ordinary experts are prone to make. In order to give Mr. Wang a better trading and living environment, I thought twice and found a remote community near Dayu Mountain in Shaoxing, where the air is fresh. Open the French window on the third floor and you can enjoy the dazzling green of Dayu Mountain. The room is * * *. Covering area140m2. In a room, I connected four computers with optical fiber. In order to take care of his habit of mild glaucoma, I specially bought four Sony monitors from Japan for HD studio, which can make plates and adjust colors to relieve his visual fatigue. According to his instructions, one is used to place orders, and the other three are used to show different kinds of market. In order to make the market stable and safe, I have also set up the Unicom of two notebook computers and two wireless network card Internet access systems of China Mobile. At the same time, in order to make him comfortable, I specially installed a 48-inch color TV on the wall that can be connected to the computer, and put a 30,000-yuan advanced massage chair that can change the angle at any time three meters away from the color TV for him to use when he is tired. Walking out of the community after closing time, Lu Xun's black boat stopped by the river, and fishermen wearing raincoats could be seen everywhere. Pieces of vegetable fields are dotted among garden-like residential buildings. If Mr. Wang walks in this natural scenery, he can quickly relieve his fatigue of watching vegetables. I finished these things and settled down with teacher Wang, so I took Ms. Li over. When Ms. Li first came, she was shy and a little embarrassed. When I drove her myself, she fell in love with it at once. This is a paradise, with no human impurities, green mountains and green waters everywhere, and small streams and bridges flowing. She said that her greatest wish in this life is to wait until she earns enough money to move to this place and live a leisurely life like Tao Yuanming. I'm going to let her meet Mr Wang. I don't know what it feels like. There is a strong smell of jealousy. Ten years on the kitchen knife (16):