From September 22nd, 2002 1 year to March 4th, 2022, the main corn company (corn futures) rose from 2,429 yuan to 2,903 yuan (1ton corn price), and the corn price rose from about 1.36 yuan to 1.45 yuan. However, before the price increase, the purchase price of Henan corn remained at 1. 1- 1.2 yuan per catty, which was much lower than the futures price.
It will take some time for the corn futures price to rise and transmit to the corn purchase price. Recently, the purchase price of corn in Henan Province has risen to 1.2- 1.3 yuan per catty (different places), and the increase rate is equivalent to the corn futures price, which is the embodiment of the rising futures price in the purchase price of corn.
Before the Sino-US trade war, China's largest corn importer was the United States. After the trade war, American corn prices rose sharply due to tariffs and sanctions. China chose to import cheaper Ukrainian corn. Last year, China's corn imports to Ukraine increased by 150%, and Ukraine became the largest corn importer in China.
Due to the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in the foreseeable 1-2 years, Ukraine's corn imports will be greatly reduced (after the conflict, the situation will be unstable for some time). The only thing that can satisfy China's huge corn imports is the high-priced American corn, and because of Sino-US relations, the channels for importing American corn may be sanctioned at any time. The increase of corn import price and the uncertainty of import volume give the domestic corn price an opportunity to rise.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine quickly transmitted the increase of corn futures price to the purchase price of corn, plus the expectation of the increase of imported corn price and the uncertainty of import volume. This has caused the recent sharp increase in the purchase price of corn in Henan.