Paragraph: What role can futures play in the adjustment of industrial structure?
What role can the futures market play in adjusting the mode of structural transformation? This is a difficult problem. Our basic judgment is, what role can the futures market play during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period or in the longer historical process of changing the development mode of our country? Another question we are thinking about is how the futures market expands from quantitative change to qualitative change. Finally, how to judge your own quantity, and where should you improve your quality? This may be a deeper issue to be discussed at the conference, or it may be the starting point for the healthy development of this market. I provided a clue for thinking. We understand that the key point that the futures market can play in the future economic development of China may be the extensive growth mode. Our extensive growth mainly depends on factor input, low-cost expansion and market extension expansion. Therefore, this extensive mode of economic growth has led to the country becoming the second largest energy consumer. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, as a breakthrough of reform, the central government has planned several, among which this is the most important, that is, to make breakthroughs here during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, that is, to deepen the reform of resource product prices and factor markets. One is to straighten out the price relationship of resource products, and the other is to improve the formation mechanism of factor prices. In the future, our factor prices will reflect the relationship between market supply and demand more and more, and return to the source more and more. At this time, we will make a basic judgment that China will enter a stage where the cost of production factors will continue to rise periodically, and the CPI increase will not be a short-term phenomenon. Don't think that a year is over. We are entering this tunnel. As experts in this field, we all know that the spot market has defects, while our futures market has advantages. This is the theory we set for ourselves. The key is that there are many mistakes in the spot market and many strong futures markets, but is China's futures market ready? Can we do that? I put forward three considerations: first, as a variety of futures, we have a wide range of futures and options. Is it true that we in China don't need options or don't have the conditions to launch options? Not necessarily. After the introduction of the Korean market, the promotion of the international status of options trading and futures market deserves our attention. The authoritative leading institutions in the futures industry should start to study the issue of options now and make preparations. Second, we only have one financial futures in the futures category. First, we should concentrate on doing the index well. As commodity futures, crude oil futures must be put on the agenda. We will call you when we can launch the crude oil. Second, the futures price. Domestically, has our domestic futures become the spot pricing benchmark? Not at all. Many people in the industry know this thing best. However, as the spot pricing benchmark, there have been signs or trends, which is an objective judgment. Now our futures industry often discusses the issues of international discourse power and international pricing power. We don't think it is yet at this stage. There is a great demand for many commodities in our country. We are the largest buyer in the world, such as iron ore. We export a lot of commodities. We are the largest seller in the world, but we have no pricing power. There's nothing unusual about it. Let's ask such a question. Why is there international pricing power? You must be a trading center. Everyone is doing business here, and this price is authoritative. When you become a trading center, it means that many people come to you to trade. The problem is that in our China futures market, people from all over the world come here to do futures trading. Is it possible? Our capital account is not open, how can he trade and form an authoritative price that can guide the international market? The direction of our current efforts in futures prices is how to make these commodities with large domestic demand, large supply and sharp price fluctuations have sufficient pricing benchmarks at this stage. Because in the process of opening up the capital market, it is impossible for the futures market to have the right to speak and lead. If our own industry advocates this thing, we can't do it, and finally say that you are not doing well, but there is no such condition. Third, can our futures market really avoid risks? Faced with such excess liquidity, he didn't know what to do. As the boss of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said, he hopes that the transaction price of agricultural products will fall most. What we are most afraid of now is not the increase of agricultural products prices. Now the rising price of futures agricultural products is not a bad thing for the futures market. One of our biggest worries now is that when the prices of agricultural products do not rise, while the futures prices of agricultural products soar, this is a fatal problem. We don't know which variety will have such a situation. At that time, the futures market was the biggest risk.