I. Impact on financial markets
The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has directly affected the real estate market and credit cards in the United States. The continued downturn in the real estate market, the narrowing of spreads and the decline in the quality of various loans have all led to the decline in the profitability of American financial institutions. At the same time, the deterioration or even losses of American financial institutions will inevitably lead to huge losses of many banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions associated with other countries. Financial institutions raise loan standards and shrink credit. The decline in the credit rating of non-government bonds leads to a decrease in the demand for financial products, which in turn leads to a decrease in the liquidity of financial markets, which in turn leads to an overall decline in the prices of real estate and financial assets. Related to this, the stock markets in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific all fluctuated violently. In emerging markets with rapid economic growth, due to the global economic slowdown and uncertain stock market prospects, intensified commodity selling and the turmoil in Eastern Europe, investors have left emerging market equity funds, and IPO issuance in these countries has also decreased compared with the past.
The financial crisis has also affected the confidence of global investors. Investors' worries about corporate profits and overall economic prospects and their aversion to risks may lead to an increase in investors' redemption behavior, which may lead investors to close funds and financial derivatives markets, and at the same time lead to lower futures prices of energy, gold, industrial products and agricultural products.
Second, the impact on the real economy.
In Europe, the current growth rate of manufacturing and service industries has dropped to the lowest level since June 2005; At the same time, business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, also fell to its lowest point in two years. The extent of the decline of industrial output in the euro zone in June last year (5438+065438+ 10) seems to reflect that the European manufacturing industry has experienced the first recession since 200 1. Europe is facing a tight overall credit market, and it is increasingly difficult for enterprises and consumers to obtain financing, which will inevitably affect business operations and personal consumption.
The weak consumer market in the United States and the appreciation of the yen will inevitably hit Japan's exports, especially Japan's export-oriented enterprises such as home appliances, automobile industry and steel industry will suffer huge losses in the financial crisis, thus affecting Japan's overall economy.
Asia is closely related to the United States. With the escalation of the financial crisis and the deterioration of the global economic situation, Asian countries have been hit by weak exports and falling consumer demand, resulting in a decrease in corporate profits. In countries such as Thailand and Malaysia, the decline in commodity prices has also affected the export of such commodities; Economic growth rates in China and India are also slowing down.
The relatively conservative financial policies adopted by Latin American countries have made the direct impact on these countries relatively limited, but they have also been affected by the economy that cannot be ignored. Due to the global economic cooling, the uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased, domestic consumption in the United States has been sluggish, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against other currencies has fluctuated, and the export income of oil, natural gas, copper and agricultural products, which account for a large proportion of Latin American countries' exports, has declined. The decline in export income will affect the public finances of these countries and aggravate their currency depreciation.
Third, the development trend
The financial crisis in the United States has caused serious losses to financial enterprises and intensified financial market turmoil. The harm has spread from the financial market to the real economy. Consumers are pessimistic about the current situation, future and prospect of the labor market. The rising unemployment rate, coupled with high food and energy prices, has led to a continuous decline in consumer confidence and a sharp slowdown in economic growth, and its harm is still spreading. The economic downturn in the United States may curb the rise of global crude oil and primary products prices, but the weak dollar may keep the prices of these primary products high.
Whether the United States can quickly end the financial crisis and achieve economic recovery depends on two major factors: the stability of the US dollar and the improvement of the financial environment. The central bank can only solve some superficial symptoms of the financial market crisis by injecting liquidity into the market. If the financial environment cannot be improved, investors' confidence cannot be rebuilt, and the main source of the crisis cannot be eradicated.
We should learn a lesson from this financial crisis: in order to adapt to the trend of mixed operation and financial innovation as soon as possible, the government authorities should strengthen the supervision of financial institutions and credit rating agencies, enhance the transparency of financial markets, and improve the financial system, so as to better manage financial risks and ensure the stability of the whole market. If necessary, public funds can be used to intervene in the market, so that the financial system can bear the risk of the collapse of large financial institutions, so as to reduce the overall impact that may be brought about by the temporary collapse of the system. In this way, regulators can not only control market turmoil, but also respond flexibly to the collapse of large investment banks.