Especially from the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, after several years of downturn, the quotation of natural rubber rose sharply, from about 20 1 10,000 yuan at the beginning of June to 20,000 yuan at the end of the year, with an increase of 1.000%. There was a correction after March, but it remained at a high level. The price of synthetic rubber has also risen sharply. During this period, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber was 8,000 yuan in June 5438+ 10, and rose to more than 20,000 yuan in February 65438+February. Because the cost of rubber accounts for about 40% of the tire production cost, the tire production cost has greatly increased, and the profits of 37 key enterprises in the tire industry decreased by 40% in June-March this year.
In this difficult period, after pushing the country to revise the specifications of composite rubber, the relevant professions now call on the Ministry of Commerce to adopt the method of importing composite rubber and stop importing it; Call on the National Standards Committee to upgrade the association standard of General Technical Self-discipline Standard for Rubber Mixing to the national standard. In this regard, the dirty profession is under pressure and worried. If these measures are implemented, it will be a disaster for the tire industry, which is undergoing structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading in many difficulties and challenges, and it will have a fatal impact on China national brand tires.
Natural rubber specialty and tire specialty are upper and lower occupations, and the vacillation of natural rubber quotation is not directly related to the import of rubber compound and rubber compound. Therefore, the method of stopping the import of compound rubber and mixed rubber in related occupations is not the right medicine, but will increase the difficulty of the two occupations. This is really an old saying, "We are born from the same root, so why should we fry each other?"
First, the elements of the sharp fluctuation of natural rubber quotation and the opposition and disadvantage brought to the upper and lower occupations
The healthy development of an industry is inseparable from the harmonious development of upper and lower occupations. However, in recent years, China's natural rubber production enterprises are far from achieving this harmony. When the price of natural rubber is high, the tire industry is losing money; The price of natural rubber plummeted, and the planting company complained. The fluctuation of the quotation makes the company unable to control the company's profits like riding a roller coaster.
For the tire industry, it is expected that the quotation of raw materials will not fluctuate greatly, but like the natural rubber cultivation industry, it is expected that the quotation will be stable and shaky. The sudden ups and downs make tire companies unable to agree, and the sales channels dare not purchase goods easily. The distribution channel has a high inventory for an instant and no inventory for an instant, which leads to the high and low operating rate of tire specialty and the extremely unstable professional profit.
For planting companies, when the price of natural rubber soared, China's profits were far less than those of Southeast Asian companies because of its limited output value and high capital, and only more high-priced profits flowed abroad. When the price of natural rubber plummeted, the cultivation company pointed the finger at the domestic tire industry, believing that it was caused by imported compound rubber, and then revised the specification. In addition, when the quotation of natural rubber soared, the planting area of natural rubber increased at home and abroad because of profiteering, which led to an increase in supply, and the quotation fell in recent years. Coupled with the extremely lively financial transaction characteristics of natural rubber, the quotation of natural rubber has experienced a violent shock, which has brought great confusion to upstream and downstream companies.
In this confusion, upstream and downstream companies have different ideas about the import of natural rubber, composite rubber and rubber compound for their own career development, which leads to the opposition between upstream and downstream occupations.
The aquaculture industry believes that the large fluctuation of the quotation of natural rubber is due to the import of a large number of rubber compounds and rubber compounds from China. In fact, due to the high import tariff of natural rubber in China, the tire industry is forced to import rubber compound and rubber compound. When the price of natural rubber is the highest, it is also the time when composite rubber and mixed rubber are imported the most. In addition, imported compound rubber and rubber compound will not depress the quotation of natural rubber.
The deep-seated reason for the decline in the quotation of natural rubber is that the development speed of China tire industry has slowed down in recent two years, from double-digit growth rate to single-digit growth rate, and even negative increase, thus reducing the demand for natural rubber. In addition, some institutions pursue huge profits by shorting natural rubber in futures, which expands this influence.
Second, the understanding of the "Self-discipline Specification for General Skills of Rubber Mixing" by the upper and lower occupations
The upstream occupation thinks that the import of natural rubber in the form of mixed rubber has intensified in recent two years, and the import volume has surged from 538,300 tons in 2065,438+06 to1865,438+08,000 tons in 2065,438+06, which has seriously impacted the shopping malls of China Rubber, leading to the shrinkage of China's natural rubber industry and the reduction of its competitiveness, making it originally profitable. At present, domestic natural rubber production enterprises are still losing money in a large area, and social instability factors are increasing. ...
In order to curb the disorderly import of natural rubber in the form of rubber compound and alleviate the dilemma of China's natural rubber industry, last year, the upstream related associations drew up the association specification of "Self-discipline Specification for General Skills of Rubber Compound" and expected it to be upgraded to the national standard.
However, the tire industry does not agree with the above reasons. Instead, it raises the "Self-discipline Standard for General Skills of Rubber Mixing" to the national standard. The main reasons are:
1. The starting point of "Self-discipline Specification for General Skills of Rubber Mixing" is wrong, which is contrary to the guidelines formulated in China.
The basic criterion of China specification is to promote industrial skill progress and transformation and upgrading, while the formulation of rubber compound specification is based on the background that the import of synthetic rubber (IDNo.: 40028000) has increased greatly after the implementation of the new rubber compound specification, and it is completely determined to restrict the import of rubber compound, which cannot achieve the basic criterion of promoting industrial skill progress.
2. The definition of rubber compound in this specification is different from that described by the General Administration of Customs.
Now the General Administration of Customs describes mixed rubber as "a mixture of goods listed in 400 1 and goods listed in this number (4002)", that is, a mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber. The definition of rubber compound in the self-discipline specification for general skills of rubber compound is: "the mixture of synthetic rubber with mass fraction not less than 50% and natural rubber with mass fraction not more than 50% and nitrogen content not less than 0.30% and not less than 0. 15%".
3. This specification is not mandatory.
This kind of rubber compound has no clients in actual production, and companies that don't produce rubber products will choose it. In the process of drafting "Self-discipline Standard for General Skills of Rubber Mixing", the common people put forward firm opposition to the original intention of drafting the standard, and the rubber mixing skill index defined in the standard is also not feasible in the completion of testing skills.
4. The drafting of this specification can't boost the quotation of NR, but it will bring fatal impact to China National Brand Tire Company. It is expected that the drafting intention of the specifications for composite rubber and rubber compound can boost the quotation of natural rubber, but the quotation of natural rubber is caused by many composite factors, which is definitely beyond the control of the specifications.