Futures traders simply think that going to the market is to make money, that is, to run for the great wealth effect, and survival is not a problem at all. However, 98% of traders are engaged in such high-risk futures trading with naive and natural intentions. It is these traders who have never considered the survival of the market. Among them, 90% only survived in the futures market for two months, and then quietly disappeared in three months at most.
In the process of growing from an account holder to a qualified trader, the survival barrier is actually the most difficult barrier to cross. Basically, the whole army was wiped out, and few people could cross this dragon gate. If you pass this survival barrier, it will be natural to make money.
1 traders are not faced with the problem of making money, but with the problem of how to survive.
The futures market is different from the securities market, and the amplification leverage ratio is ten. In this market, the most typical weaknesses of traders, greed and fear, are magnified ten times or even higher. If the greedy look is magnified ten times, it is self-evident; It is also conceivable to magnify the fear ten times. Either of these two weaknesses may make the account face disaster.
I have a securities friend in Shanghai. In 2007, he bought 1 10,000 shares of Huangtai wine at the price of 10 yuan, and then the share price plummeted. At the lowest point, he kept it in 2.4 yuan, and finally 24 yuan was out. It took about four years before and after. This wealth effect can be seen everywhere in the futures market. If it is done well, it will increase by 40%. If you can't do it well, the funds will shrink by 40% that day, and the risk is extremely high. In such a magnificent and turbulent market rhythm, it is difficult for people who don't know fund management and trading strategies but only know technical analysis to survive. Such a market is called a virtual market because it has leverage; The stock market is a firm transaction with no leverage effect. The property market is between the two, with 3-5 times leverage, so Europe and the United States de-leveraged in the subprime mortgage crisis, and we issued money to speculate on real estate, which runs counter to the world economy.
If he is a simple and rational trader, even without guidance, he will only take up110 for trading; If you have a little knowledge of fund management and risk control, you will only take 2% of the funds to pursue low risk, and 2% here is the safety margin of Jiancang Fund. Many traders call themselves experts. They traded Man Cang, Bancang and 1/3 positions easily, but in fact, they smashed tanks with their bodies or blocked trains in dung beetles. Their fate can be imagined.
The road to futures trading is full of difficulties, either to survive or to perish.
For futures traders entering the market, the question is simple: to do or not to do. Getting rich is the next problem, and it is difficult to get rich without solving the problem of survival. If a trader who enters the market has an account of 200,000 yuan and uses 2% of the funds to open a position each time, his survival period may be extended and the survival barrier will be opened; If he trades in Man Cang, Bancang and 1/3 warehouses, the outcome is doomed, and only destruction awaits him.
I advise many friends who want to engage in futures trading to stay away from this market. They often retort: you didn't ask me to do it. How do you know I can't do futures? When they do futures trading, I suggest that they learn to control and manage funds. They argue that I only study technical analysis to find a high chance of winning. Why can't I enter the market with a good chance of winning? As soon as the news came out, they told me: I have at least experienced what futures are. If you follow your method, it will be worse than making stocks. There is no denying that futures has its unique charm, which is not available in real life. There are virtual transactions and leverage multiples, everyone's ego, ideas, concepts, desires, greed, panic, hallucinations and so on. Magnified like a mirror. It should be said that futures trading brings people a unique experience that does not exist in real life.
There is no doubt that survival in the futures market is the first, and destruction will also bring different experiences to traders. Everyone comes to this market to make money. To make money, we must first solve the problem of market survival. It's easy to make money after survival.
The so-called traders don't survive.
The so-called traders do not have the problem of survival, or they have never used survival at all.
In 2007, in the business department of a futures company in Beijing Financial Street, the boss pushed open the door of the reference room. There is a middle-aged man working in the data pile. The boss said: This is our chef, so please speak well. He has been sitting in front of the screen telling me about transactions for more than ten years. This year, he drifted to Beijing. I asked him if he had a model account with outstanding trading performance for ten years. He changed the subject, lit a rotten cigarette and introduced me to some trading skills of the warehouse opener. He told me that ordinary traders like to bring new customers because they have a greater chance of making profits; If the account loses 50%, it will generally not be moved again, because only by doubling the funds can the loss be recovered. If you bring a new account with no loss, doubling the capital means a profit of 100%, and the seller can get a lot of money. If the seller can make the account with a loss of 50% recover the loss, the customer will not be caught in this dilemma.
I want to tell you that for sellers, there is no survival problem. As long as there are new customers, there will be a steady stream of funds.
The third time I met this dishwasher, he asked me to borrow 50 thousand yuan. He explained: he cashed out the funds in his girlfriend's credit card (debit card) and lost all his money by speculating in futures. This can prove that traders do not have the problem of survival, or they have never used survival at all.
Money management and risk control help you survive.
Novice and immature traders are always immersed in technical analysis, and more low-end traders don't understand the theory of technical analysis, so take some concepts, terms and indicators as examples. Why do they like technical analysis? Technical analysis can meet all their needs in the futures market. They will never understand: if technical analysis can make money, why do both sides believe in the same technical analysis, but their fates are so different?
If a trader wants to survive, he must first have a rational and stable trading psychology; Secondly, willing and willing to accept the constraints of records; Then there is the boring, boring, mechanical, unreasonable and repetitive training of investment fund management and risk control.
Every qualified futures trader, every person who has survived in the futures market, and every person who has survived by trading in the futures market are the products of strict training in fund management and risk control.