As mentioned in the previous article, the rising factors include the influence of emotions such as production capacity and reluctance to sell in the market, and the market is generally optimistic about the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter. Under the influence of many factors, we are generally optimistic about the subsequent market changes.
As for the drop in pig prices, what are the factors and how will the subsequent "shock" of the market be affected?
1, analysis of the change of live pig market.
For the previous pig market, especially before June, under the influence of falling pig prices, farmers suffered serious losses, and many farmers' enthusiasm for breeding gradually decreased, resulting in a decline in production capacity, and the overall pig stock also decreased compared with the same period.
Faced with such changes, the state has issued corresponding policies to ensure the stability of the live pig market, especially under the influence of the central purchasing and storage, the live pig market has gradually stabilized.
On the other hand, due to the high price increase in a single day, it has gradually driven the price of pork in many markets. Compared with the previous price of 10 yuan, the price of pigs has now risen directly to 18 yuan per catty.
Relevant data show that the pork consumption index rose by 2.9%, which played a key role in the consumption growth of the whole market.
2. Analysis of pig price "shock"
For the price of live pigs in July, it can be described as "ups and downs", which fluctuates greatly.
It is largely related to the role of the market.
The rising trend of the pig market is high, and the momentum is not diminished. National policies began to regulate the market to find a good balance point, and the shortage pig market was adjusted.
In view of the subsequent fluctuations, what changes will be made are mainly composed of the following points.
First of all, from the overall forecast, there will be no major changes in the decline in pig prices, and the overall situation will be slightly stable.
This is mainly because the second half of the year is the peak season for pork consumption, especially the consumption of enema and bacon will increase in the fourth quarter, which will play a certain role in stimulating the rise of pig prices and maintaining stability.
Secondly, from the perspective of market productivity, the current stock of live pigs is relatively stable, and the recent increase in pig prices will drive some farmers to hold pens and fatten for the second time. For the follow-up pig market, the supply side is relatively stable, and the cost of the breeding side is actually increasing, especially for small-scale breeding retail investors, there will be certain risks, so the phenomenon of secondary fattening will not last long.
So on the whole, although the pig price fluctuates, it is in a reasonable normal range as a whole, and the pig price will remain stable at that time.
3. Tracking analysis of live pig price fluctuation.
For the whole change of pig price, the price in the second half of the year will be higher than that in the first half of the year, which is normal, but there will be different voices in the market.
Some people think that the price of live pigs will rebound to a certain profit range in the second half of the year, while others think that it will appear below the cost line.
In this regard, personally, in the case of high breeding costs, the market profit margin will be depressed, and the overall follow-up pig price will remain at around per catty 10 yuan, with little possibility of rising or falling.
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