The reason for saying this is actually mainly because in the history of our country, the financing price has been declining. Let's take a simple example to illustrate that at 1990, our domestic loan interest rate was basically above 10%, and now it has dropped below 5%. Therefore, according to this development law, the domestic lpr loan interest rate will continue to fall in the future.
If we look at foreign experience instead of domestic history, the lpr interest rate will still fall in the future. We should know that the interest rates in Europe and Japan have reached zero or even negative interest rates, while our domestic interest rates are still between 4.5% and 5%, which is actually relatively high, and there is still much room for decline compared with some European countries.
In addition to the above two points, there is another important reason, that is, the domestic real estate market is really getting more and more depressed, in other words, fewer and fewer people buy houses. If we want to stimulate the real estate market in the future, we must lower the loan interest rate. Only in this way can we stimulate more people to buy houses.
Therefore, if the above points are combined, the possibility of LPR decline in the future is still relatively large. But these are actually just our own guesses. After all, no one can predict what the future mortgage policy will be. However, we can analyze the trend of interest rate from the relationship between supply and demand in economics. Judging from the current situation, inflation has been rising, while the currency is depreciating, which means that the price of the currency is actually falling. This actually means that the price of lpr is falling.
Another point is that it is relatively easy to release water, but it is particularly difficult to tighten it. From this point of view, the reduction of currency should be only a temporary measure, but the monetary easing policy should be a long-term trend, which will lead to further devaluation of currency and further decline of LPR.