1, sudden major political events;

2. Changes in interest rates (if interest rates increase, capital investment will decrease, resulting in smaller initial mining scale; High interest rates will also increase the capital cost of alternative technologies, leading to a decline in mining speed);

3. Exchange rate changes (crude oil price changes have a negative correlation with the exchange rate changes of the US dollar and major international currencies, and the rise of the US dollar puts pressure on crude oil settled in US dollars. When geopolitics is in turmoil, crude oil is positively related to the US dollar, and the two complement each other);

4. Changes in oil inventory (inventory is a buffer between supply and demand. When the futures price is higher than the spot price, the commercial inventory will increase, thus stimulating the spot price to rise. On the contrary, it will cause the spot price to fall);

5. Tax policy (When tax revenue increases, the net profit of crude oil exploitation will decrease, and the enthusiasm during exploitation will also decrease accordingly. And taxes will reduce the return on investment of newly discovered reserves);

6. Market intervention by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and IEA (they can change the market supply pattern in a short time, thus changing people's expectations of oil price trends);

7. The outflow or inflow of hot money in the international capital market (when the global financial market lacks investment opportunities, a large number of people enter the international commodity market, especially the crude oil market, which will inevitably push up the international oil price and seriously deviate from the fundamentals);

8. Climate anomalies;