At present, the downward trend of coal industries such as electric power, steel and chemical industry is still intensifying. Although the government's economic policy of stimulating investment has a certain positive effect on boosting market confidence in the short term, it will take time to have a substantial impact; Although compared with the beginning of the fourth quarter, the production of steel and electric power industry has resumed, when industrial reserve increases, the price will still fall and the demand for coal will still show a low consolidation. So, what are the leading factors that affect the coal market in 2009? The author analyzes it from both positive and negative aspects:
The negative factors affecting the coal market in 2009 mainly include:
1, in 2009, the instability of macroeconomic policies and the difficulty of macro-control decision-making gradually increased, which increased the variables of the coal market in 2009. The central government's recent investment of 4 trillion yuan and five monetary policy adjustments in less than 100 days are all aimed at expanding domestic demand by increasing monetary liquidity, thereby expanding trading volume and curbing the serious shortage of industrial products, the continuous sharp drop in prices and the grim employment situation, rather than repeatedly "adding" investment to the already surplus industrial industries. It is still very vague how much the policy expectation will stimulate the demand for industrial products. Moreover, it is worth noting that due to the influence of price and profit, the idle rate of industrial capacity will still be at a certain level in 2009 due to the production capacity that has not been put into operation in 2008 and the capacity under construction, market instability and investment panic. The downstream production capacity of coal can not be fully operated, and the demand for further consolidation of coal is at a low level.
2. While increasing investment and stimulating domestic demand, the government should also prevent the investment direction from going astray and forming the signs of low-level redundant construction. On the one hand, improper use of funds can not only stimulate demand, but also increase the money supply invisibly, forming an investment trap and causing a new inflation theory; On the other hand, the wrong investment direction will directly lead to low-level redundant construction, laying a curse for overcapacity in a certain period of time in the future. Considering the government's macro-economic line, domestic demand can't stimulate economic growth in the short term like industrial investment. The original overcapacity of steel and electricity, and the overcapacity of coal are also follow-up events.
3. Major coal industries such as steel and electric power are still not optimistic about the demand forecast for the first quarter of next year. On the one hand, the first quarter coincided with the two festivals, and factors such as holidays in downstream industries and insufficient start-up prompted the demand for products to fall back, and the market was once again depressed; In addition, the impact of the economic and financial crisis is still deepening. Although the export tax rebate rate of some products has been lowered, anti-dumping considerations and the fact that the external market itself is difficult to rebound in the short term still determine the trend of the domestic market.
The positive factors mainly include:
1. The state has issued a plan to adjust the value-added tax rate of mineral products from June to February in 5438. From the first quarter of next year, the value-added tax rate of mineral products will be uniformly adjusted to 17%. The value-added tax rate of coal products increased by 4 percentage points from the original 13%, and the financial cost of coal increased by about 30 yuan/ton (according to the 700 yuan/ton price budget). In addition, the country's resource tax reform on coal resources is also coming to the fore. The draft changed from the original specific tax to ad valorem tax, and the tax rate was 5% of the coal price (the average may reach 30-40 yuan/ton), which was more than 10 times higher than the previous ad valorem of 2.5-3.6 yuan/ton. The two tax system reforms will increase the coal cost by about 70 yuan/ton. The increase in taxes and fees will support coal prices.
2. The non-renewable nature of coal products and the nature of primary resources do not allow coal prices to keep running at a low level. After nearly 3-5 years of large-scale mining, China's coal resources have been greatly reduced. The major mining groups, which used to be the main mining areas in the 20th century, are now turning their attention to employment and meeting the demand for coal in peripheral coalfields. However, most of the local reserves are nearly exhausted, and there are deep-seated contradictions in the connection between mining and mining. The sharp rise in coal prices in the first half of the year is the embodiment of the "bottleneck" of coal and the deep-seated exposure of mining contradictions. However, the adjustment of taxes and fees was not followed up in time. The promotion of tax reform next year will further make the hidden cost of coal mining explicit, reflect the scarcity of resources, and then promote the stability of coal prices.
Generally speaking, the factors affecting the coal market will coexist in the first quarter of next year, and the overall economic recovery and demand recovery are still decisive factors. Part of the hidden costs of coal resource exploitation will become explicit, thus increasing coal costs and forming a strong support for coal prices.