It is difficult for RMB to become a freely convertible currency, and steady appreciation is the general trend.

The next 10 year will be 10 year for RMB to accelerate internationalization. In 2020, the proportion of RMB in international trade settlement will exceed 10%, and the proportion in international reserves and foreign exchange transactions will even reach 15%. By 2020, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be around 4.2: 1, with an average annual appreciation of about 4.5%.

In the coming 10 year, the internationalization of RMB will be more driven by the sustained and rapid growth of China's economy and foreign trade. Accelerating the internationalization of RMB will promote the reform of interest rate and exchange rate, the expansion of capital market and the improvement of monetary supervision.

Compared with China's economic scale and the proportion of foreign trade in the global total, China's RMB's international status obviously lags behind, but the improvement of RMB's internationalization level has been restricted by China's economic growth mode and financial supervision level. The impact of the financial crisis on the global economy and the existing major international currencies, especially the US dollar, provides a rare opportunity to accelerate the internationalization of RMB.

It is estimated that the GDP of China will increase by 8% annually in the next 10 year. By 2020, China's total economic output will reach about 75.7 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 1 1 trillion US dollars at the current exchange rate. Considering the appreciation of RMB, China's economy may be close to that of the United States, more than double that of Japan and equivalent to 20% of global GDP.

In terms of trade, China's import and export will also grow at an average annual rate of 8%, which will still be faster than the global average growth rate of 5%. As a result, by 2020, China's total foreign trade will reach 6.4 trillion US dollars, greatly surpassing the United States and ranking first in the world, accounting for 13% of the total global trade. China's foreign trade will turn from surplus to deficit. In 2020, the proportion of RMB in international trade settlement will be roughly equal to that of China's foreign trade in global trade, and the proportion of RMB in reserve assets may be higher.

The fetters of RMB internationalization still exist. First of all, China's economic growth relies too much on exports and investment, and the double surplus of trade and investment hinders the export of RMB, which is the primary condition for the internationalization of its local currency. Even if foreign trade and investment are all settled in RMB, the double surplus of export and investment will absorb the outflow of RMB through import payment and foreign investment, resulting in a shortage of RMB circulation abroad, or we can only support the need of RMB international circulation by greatly increasing foreign exchange reserves, that is, exchange the inflow of foreign exchange such as US dollars for RMB output.

The process of RMB going abroad will be accompanied by the further opening and expansion of China's capital market, providing sufficient "asset pool" for overseas RMB holders to invest. The formation mechanism of RMB interest rate and exchange rate will also be more market-oriented, reducing the risk of holding RMB. Capital entry and exit control under capital will be relaxed to meet the liquidity requirements of RMB asset investors for investment safety and profitability.

These trends will promote the improvement of monetary and financial control measures in China.

/kloc-within 0/0 years, it is still difficult for RMB to become a freely convertible currency. However, the steady appreciation of RMB is the general trend. It is estimated that by 2020, the appreciation against the US dollar will be more than 60%, first slow and then fast, with an average annual appreciation of about 4.5%.

2. The second trend: New energy helps China become a powerful automobile country.

In the low-end car market, a number of world-renowned Volkswagen brands will be bred.

By 2020, the car ownership of China will still lag behind that of the United States, and the car ownership of 1,000 people will still be lower than the world average.

The pressure of energy and environmental protection brought by the rapid growth of automobile market will promote the development of new energy vehicles in China, which is likely to be an opportunity for China's automobile industry to narrow the gap with automobile powers.

In the past 10 years, China's automobile production and market grew at a high speed nearly double the GDP growth rate, and private consumption became the biggest driving force for the rapid growth of China's automobile market. 10 years later, the popularity of automobiles in China will become a necessity for urban residents' daily life, just like today's color TV sets. It will be very common for families in big cities to own two or more cars, and cars will also enter the countryside on a large scale. Light trucks, pickup trucks, off-road vehicles and other vehicles that can be used as both means of transportation and means of production will open up a broad market in rural areas.

China's new car consumption market may surpass the United States faster than expected, and this day will come on 20 15. In 2020, the annual output of automobiles in China will exceed 20 million, double that of this year. By then, the number of automobiles in China will reach at least 654.38+85 million, making it the largest automobile consumption market in the world after the United States.

The rapid growth of China's automobile market will bring great pressure on energy and environmental protection, forcing China to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles and continue to improve the energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies of traditional vehicles. Technological progress will narrow the gap between China's automobile industry and the world's automobile powers.

If we adhere to the self-centered development idea of new energy vehicles, China is likely to take the lead in breaking through in the field of new energy vehicles and realize the transformation of China's automobile industry from large to strong. In 2020, China will become one of the countries with the largest number of new energy vehicles in the world.

In 2020, the proportion of China's automobile exports in the whole domestic production will increase from 7.3% last year to about 20%. With the massive export of automobiles, China will breed a number of world-famous Volkswagen brands in the low-end automobile market.

10 years ago, there were 1 10 vehicle manufacturers in China, and the output of FAW, SAIC and SAIC accounted for 44% of the total domestic output. In 2008, although the number of domestic vehicle manufacturers decreased to 82, the proportion of the output of the three major groups in the total domestic output only increased by less than 5 percentage points to 48.7%. In the coming 10 year, the position of the three major groups in China may face the challenge of other enterprises coming from behind.

3. The third trend: energy consumption ranks first in the world.

The gap between domestic energy output and demand has widened, and the proportion of energy imports in total consumption has further increased.

In the next 10 year, China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest energy consumer, but the per capita energy consumption is still only half that of Japan and western European countries, less than13 of that of the United States, and equivalent to the world average. The gap between domestic energy output and demand in China will further widen, and the proportion of energy imports in total consumption will increase from 3% at present to 20% in 2020.

China's energy policy will face great pressure, and the international call for China to undertake more emission reduction obligations will gradually increase. The environmental awareness of the domestic people will also be significantly strengthened. Together, they will promote the transformation of China's energy structure to clean and its economic structure to low carbon.

In recent years, China's energy conservation and emission reduction policies have been strengthened, and the elastic coefficient of energy consumption has gradually decreased from 1.6 in 2004 to 0.44 in 2008, which is extremely rare in developing countries and new economies. If this ultra-low elasticity coefficient of energy consumption can be maintained compared with that of developing countries, with an average GDP growth of 8% in the next 10 year, energy consumption will increase by about 4% annually. By 2020, China's total energy consumption will exceed 4.5 billion tons of standard coal, equivalent to 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil, which is close to the sum of the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy.

The increase of domestic energy production will not meet the increase of demand, and China's dependence on foreign energy will further increase. It is estimated that by 2020, nearly 20% of China's energy demand needs to be met by imports. It is estimated that in 2020, China's net energy import will exceed 800 million tons of standard coal, equivalent to 560 million barrels of oil equivalent, accounting for about 1/5 of the global energy export.

The increase in energy demand brought by the rapid economic development in developing countries such as China will rapidly push up energy prices. Take oil as an example. After 10 years, the price of crude oil will hit $200/barrel (constant price in 2008), at least standing above 150 $/barrel. There is basically no doubt that the real prices of coal, natural gas, liquefied gas and uranium will double today.

The problem of carbon dioxide emission caused by the increase of energy consumption has increasingly become the focus of global attention. In the next 10 year, global climate and environmental problems will surpass terrorism as the number one international problem. According to BP World Energy Statistics, from 2000 to 2008, global energy consumption increased by about 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent every year, of which China's consumption increase accounted for more than half.

Vigorously developing non-carbon-based energy sources such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and even solar energy, and vigorously developing and popularizing clean energy technologies such as sulfur recovery and carbon capture are the only way out for China's energy dilemma. It is predicted that by 2020, the proportion of coal in China's energy consumption will drop from the current 70% to below 60%, the proportion of relatively clean and efficient oil and gas will increase from 23% to nearly 27%, and the proportion of non-carbon-based energy will increase from 7% to 15% or even more.

4. The fourth trend: banks are changing to "financial department stores".

Bank leveraged products will have a positive impact on real economy investment by improving the efficiency of capital use.

In the next 10 year, China's commercial banks will change from the traditional "financing intermediary" as the core to "wealth management" as the core, and retail business will become the main profit source of banks in the future. At present, the proportion of corporate business that contributes the most to bank profits will drop sharply.

In the future, banks will reduce their dependence on deposits to raise funds, and highly leveraged financial derivatives brought about by financial innovation will greatly improve the efficiency of capital use. The profit model of traditional bank deposit and loan spreads will gradually give way to the profit model of intermediary business.

In the future, the significance of banks to customers will no longer be "piggy bank" or "loan wholesaler", but a "financial department store" focusing on banking business and radiating insurance, securities, funds, property rights management and other fields. Managing wealth assets for customers will be the core business of banks.

In the future, banks will manage wealth on behalf of customers, and the investment field will expand from traditional fields such as stocks, bonds and funds to structured derivatives, commodities and even works of art.

Banks will no longer focus on counter services. At present, the financial terminals for customers to pay, deposit and withdraw money and inquire at bank outlets are expected to "fly into the homes of ordinary people", and online banking will complete all kinds of business that could only be handled at bank outlets in the past. As the most convenient payment tool launched by banks for customers, bank cards will have a great leap in function and appearance.

With the business of non-bank financial institutions gradually infiltrating into banks, in order to pursue economies of scale and spread risks, large banks have to take measures such as mergers and acquisitions to expand their scale and improve their competitiveness, which has spawned a number of financial holding companies with commercial banks as the main body engaged in mixed operations.

As a financial accelerator, bank leveraged products have a positive impact on investment in the real economy by improving the efficiency of capital use. At the same time, bank consumer credit has promoted the increase of consumption leverage and played an active role in the economic transformation strategy of expanding domestic demand and restructuring.

5. The fifth trend: from a textile power to a textile power.

Innovation will push the textile and garment industry structure of China to the high end of the value chain.

In the next 10 year, China will be transformed from a big country in textile industry into a powerful textile country. While the textile and clothing market as a whole maintains rapid growth, the expansion of the household, especially industrial textiles market will be particularly eye-catching. As far as fiber consumption is concerned, clothing, household and industrial textiles will be "three-thirds of the world"

As an important symbol of the changes of the times, clothing records the historical changes in a non-textual way. In the coming 10 year, it is an indisputable trend that clothing will be more diversified, the concept of leisure life will penetrate into clothing consumption more widely and deeply, and people will pursue more to show their cultural level and taste through clothing.

The development prospect of China clothing market is limitless. Looking back on the 30 years of reform and opening-up, the number of garment enterprises in China has increased from about 20,000 to nearly 300,000, the number of employees has increased from less than one million to more than four million, the garment output has increased from less than two billion pieces to more than 20 billion pieces, and the garment export has increased from about 654.38 billion US dollars to more than 654.38 billion US dollars. China's clothing exports account for more than 30% of the global total. At present, China's urban per capita clothing expenditure exceeds 654.38 million yuan, more than five times that of rural residents. In the future, the urban and rural clothing consumption market will present a huge development space.

Compared with clothing, domestic and industrial textiles have a broader market space. At present, the proportion of consumption fiber in clothing, household and industrial textiles in China is 53: 33: 14, which is significantly lower than that of 68: 22: 10 at the beginning of this century. It is estimated that after 10 years, this ratio will evolve to 40: 35: 25, which is similar to that in Europe and America today.

In the coming 10 year, the growth point of China textile industry and its contribution to society will be mainly reflected in industrial textiles. The market scale of industrial textiles will expand rapidly, covering transportation, railways, water conservancy, machinery, medicine and health, military industry and other fields. The process of urbanization and the construction of new countryside will also fully release the market demand for home textile products such as decorative textiles and bedding.

In the next 10 year, the textile industry will still play an irreplaceable supporting role in the process of China's national economy achieving the development goals in the first 20 years of this century. The scale of textile industry will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down and the industrial structure will be optimized and upgraded. It is estimated that by 2020, the total fiber processing in China will exceed 40 million tons, accounting for 40% of the total global processing.

6. The sixth trend: the rapid rise of cultural and creative industries.

The greatest potential is the deep combination of culture and other industries, especially manufacturing.

In the coming 10 year, cultural creativity and traditional industries will be rapidly integrated to form a new economic development paradigm-cultural creativity economy. The integration of cultural and creative elements will promote traditional industries, and the products and services of traditional industries will also become an important carrier of cultural communication.

The rapid development of digital communication technologies such as the Internet will greatly stimulate the creativity of the whole people and accelerate the commercialization of creativity. In the coming 10 year, a large number of cultural and creative enterprises will emerge one after another, and on this basis, a number of comprehensive flagship enterprises will be formed. In 2020, the contribution rate of these enterprises to China's GDP will increase from the current 3% to around 7%.

The next 10 year will be a year of high cultural consumption in China. Traditional cultural industries will accelerate their penetration into other industries while upgrading and developing themselves. Cultural creativity will act on tourism, manufacturing and even other industries such as agriculture on a large scale, which will give birth to a cultural creativity economy based on traditional cultural industries in an all-round way and promote the transformation from manufacturing in China to creating in China.

In the next 10 year, the policy of expanding domestic demand and vigorously developing service industry will add new catalysts to the development of cultural and creative economy. The greatest potential is the deep combination of culture and other industries, especially manufacturing.

High-tech will be the accelerator of cultural and creative economy. Digital communication technology has entered thousands of households, making it possible for individuals to participate in and publish their own creations anytime and anywhere. Hundreds of millions of netizens are a very huge creative resource.

Digital communication technology with strong personal attributes will also give birth to countless small and medium-sized cultural and creative individuals and enterprises. At present, there are about 320,000 registered cultural enterprises in China, from which a number of cross-industry, cross-media, cross-ownership and cross-regional cultural multimedia groups will emerge, among which 3 to 5 super-large flagship groups will be produced.

Small and medium-sized cultural and creative enterprises will dominate the specialized and refined market segments, but a large number of scattered creative talents and enterprises tend to gather in certain fields according to fields, genres and functions. These cultural and creative gathering areas will also create a number of brands with international influence.

7. Seventh trend: Internet life has entered the stage of Internet of Things.

"Internet of Things" will lead electronic consumption into a more convenient, humanized and intelligent new era.

Recently, the word "Internet of Things" has become popular rapidly. Also, a bunch of so-called "IOT concepts" are sealed on the daily limit board every day, and it is not good to think about it.

In the coming 10 year, the integration of modern electronic information technologies such as computer, internet and communication will be accelerated, and the trend of integration and innovation of consumer electronics industry in China will become more and more obvious. The Internet of Things will be widely used in consumer electronic products, leading electronic consumption into a more convenient, humanized and intelligent new era.

The design of consumer digital products will show a more portable and personalized trend. Miniaturized and ultra-thin digital products with the characteristics of fashion, thinness and simplicity will become the mainstream of consumption. Green technology has become the primary concern of consumer electronics industry, and the product design concept of energy saving, environmental protection and health has become the main development trend of consumer electronics products.

In the coming 10 year, the combination of high technology with humanization and personalization will become the technical pursuit and research concept of consumer electronic products. With the rapid development of information technology, digital, networked and intelligent new applications are constantly emerging, and the boundaries of the consumer electronics industry will become increasingly blurred, and the product categories will also be diverse. Products such as large screen, LCD TV with Internet access, high-capacity fast storage technology, high-definition digital image products, and highly integrated information terminals that meet individual needs will realize continuous structural innovation and seamless connection with each other, and tend to realize the full and perfect combination of people and information in the field of process design.

Digital home will become a strong growth point of consumer electronic products in the future. The home application of information technology has realized the high digitalization and networking of household appliances.

The design of digital entertainment products pays more attention to individuality and fashion, emphasizes the emotional experience of users and the design of user interface, and pursues to make users have fun and even surprises in use. Industrial design has shifted from product design to combination with business model, and from hardware design to integrated design of software and hardware. Ultra-thin products have entered the era of popularization, and countless new products will be presented in a lighter and smaller appearance.

Healthy consumption has become one of the mainstream innovations of consumer electronic products. Consumers' attention to consumer electronic products, especially household appliances, has shifted from price to product, technology, quality and use cost, especially energy saving and consumption reduction.

In the coming 10 year, the high-tech term "internet of things" will gradually move from concept to large-scale application, setting off the third wave of the world information industry. IT makes full use of the new generation IT technology from all walks of life through sensors, forms a universally connected Internet, and realizes the magical integration of human society and physical systems. With the help of "Internet of Things", human beings can manage production and life more finely and dynamically, and a brand-new network experience will realize the harmonious symbiosis between man and nature.

8. Trend 8: Grain is in a tight balance for a long time.

Popularizing improved varieties, applying chemical fertilizers and improving the level of mechanization are still effective means to increase grain output.

In the next 10 year, the improvement of residents' living standards and dietary structure will have a certain impact on China's per capita food consumption, but the main driving force for the growth of food consumption will come from the increase of the total population. By 2020, the total population of China will reach about 14 1 100 million, and the grain industry and export demand are expected to remain relatively stable under the control of policies, and the grain demand will increase at about 10%, with strong demand rigidity.

National policies and measures to support grain production are very important to ensure grain supply, and the contribution of scientific and technological progress to grain production has great room for improvement. In the next 10 year, the grain output of China will exceed 10%. However, in the long run, grain production is affected by resources, climate, technology, market and other factors, making it more difficult to increase production substantially, and China's grain is still in a tight balance in the medium and long term.

In the next 10 year, we should focus on the international perspective of food security and establish a new concept of food security with mutually beneficial cooperation, diversified development and coordinated guarantee; Around China's abundant grain resources, we should establish a comprehensive food security concept with grain as the center and grain as the focus, and finally build a national food security system with stable supply, sufficient reserves, strong regulation and control, and efficient operation.

At present, the key factors affecting China's grain production are grain planting area and grain yield level. Due to the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the total sown area of grain in China is declining, but with the progress of science and technology and the increase of agricultural input, the yield level of grain crops in China is rising. In 2008, the contribution rate of grain production increase to total output growth in China reached 8 1%. It is estimated that by 2020, the grain output will increase by 1. 13% annually. According to the strategic goal planning of food security, by 2020, China's grain planting area will be stable at15.5 ~160,000 mu, and the grain output will reach 570 ~ 590 million tons. If during this period, the grain yield can maintain a high level of average annual growth 1.70%, by 2020, China's grain output will break through the 600 million tons mark, reaching 6 1 to 630 million tons, and enter a new stage.

Popularizing improved varieties, applying chemical fertilizers and improving the level of mechanization are still effective means to increase grain output. Improved varieties will be the main factor to increase grain output. It is predicted that in the next 10 year, the coverage rate of improved varieties of wheat, corn and rice will be close to 100%, and soybeans will be increased to over 95%. Improved varieties will increase grain yield by about 10%. The utilization rate of chemical fertilizer will continue to increase. It is estimated that the contribution rate of chemical fertilizer to grain production will be around 10% in the next10 year. Agricultural mechanization can solve the problem of labor shortage and increase the output per unit area of grain. It is estimated that by 2020, the comprehensive mechanization level of farming and harvesting in China will reach 70%, and the production of key links of major crops will be mechanized.

Eco-agriculture and transgenic technology will not have much impact on grain production in China in the next 10 year. As a sustainable and environmentally friendly development model, eco-agriculture is a long-term trend and will not become the leading model of agricultural development in the short term. It is also difficult to draw a clear conclusion about the controversy of transgenic technology, so the large-scale commercial planting of bulk crops will still be strictly restricted.

To ensure China's food security in the next 10 year, we must achieve "four guarantees": to ensure that the total grain output continues to rise steadily, the national comprehensive grain production capacity exceeds 550 million tons, and the per capita grain possession reaches 400 kilograms; Ensure that China's staple food is basically self-sufficient, the self-sufficiency rate of rice, wheat and corn is maintained at 90%-95%, and the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is restored to 55%-60%, and expand the export of beans, buckwheat, millet and other minor cereals; Ensure that the national grain reserve scale is maintained at a level equivalent to 25%-30% of the total grain consumption in that year, and the wheat and rice reserves are maintained at around 50% and 25% respectively; Ensure the formation of a complete and perfect modern grain logistics system.

9. Ninth trend: the capital market tends to be internationalized.

The internationalization of the capital market will enhance China's share and position in the global capital market.

In the next 10 year, China's capital market will further develop in the direction of marketization and internationalization, basically complete the transformation from "emerging plus transition" to mature market, and initially form a perfect multi-level capital market pattern.

The depth and breadth of China's capital market will be greatly expanded. The stock, bond, commodity futures and financial derivatives markets will be fully developed, and the market level will be richer. Its position and role in the global capital market will continue to develop and enhance, and it will become an international capital market that matches China's economic status and occupy a decisive position in the global capital market.

In the coming 10 year, Shanghai will become one of the few financial centers with complete market types in the world, forming a financial market system including stocks, bonds, currencies, foreign exchange, commodity futures, OTC derivatives and property rights transactions. The main battlefield of GEM is in Shenzhen. Listed companies on GEM will inject vitality into the most dynamic small and medium-sized enterprises in China's economy.

In 2020, the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will reach 80- 100 trillion yuan, quadrupling the current level, and the number of listed companies is expected to increase from the current 1638 to 5,000. Institutional investors are developing rapidly, among which mutual funds, trust funds, enterprise annuities, insurance funds and social security funds will account for about 90% of the stock market.

By then, the size of the bond market will exceed that of the stock market, which may be two to four times the size of the stock market, and the proportion of bond financing in the financing of domestic financial institutions will increase from the current 10.8% to more than 35%.

More commodity futures varieties will be introduced one after another, and futures varieties such as energy, metals, agriculture, grain and livestock products will be improved day by day. Financial derivatives such as stock index futures, interest rate futures, bond futures and foreign exchange futures have also been launched.

While China's capital market is expanding in breadth and depth, its market-oriented reform will be basically completed in 2020.

The division of labor of market entities is more clear. First of all, the market will have multiple levels for investors to choose from in terms of products, trading tools, financing methods and regulatory requirements. Second, the main function of the regulatory authorities will change from the current substantive judgment and approval of issuers and investors rather than the market to improving the regulatory rules of each market and supervising the implementation of market participants. Third, investors can choose which financial market to participate in according to their needs, instead of letting the regulatory authorities decide which market to participate in and how to participate.

In the next 10 year, foreign enterprises and investors will continuously enter the China market. Within two years, foreign enterprises may be allowed to list and raise funds in the domestic capital market. It is estimated that by 2020, the proportion of overseas companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange will reach about 15%, about 1 000, including at least 50 Fortune 500 companies; B-share market will probably merge with A-share market; At the same time, more outstanding foreign enterprises can issue RMB bonds in the bond market.

With the gradual relaxation of capital flow restrictions and the continuous reform of foreign exchange control, well-funded institutional investors will seek investment opportunities on a global scale. It is estimated that by 2020, overseas institutional investors will become important participants in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, and the investment funds in Chinese mainland capital market will exceed 200 billion US dollars.

Foreign investors will become important participants in the domestic capital market. China's national debt will become part of the foreign exchange reserve assets of foreign central banks, and China's corporate debt will also become part of the global asset portfolio of large financial institutions. Secondly, RMB "foreign bonds", that is, RMB bonds issued by foreign governments and enterprises in Chinese mainland, will have a growing market. Third, there will be a considerable overseas RMB euro bond market by 2020. We believe that China and Hongkong are most likely to become the main markets for RMB European bonds, and Shanghai will also provide offshore market services for RMB European bond transactions.

10, the tenth trend: the urbanization rate will be close to 60%.

The household registration system will be gradually opened, and small and medium-sized cities will become the main force to absorb the rural transfer population.

In the coming 10 year, the urban population of China will reach 800 million, and the urbanization rate will be close to 60%. There is still a big gap with the urbanization rate of 80% in developed countries.

The household registration system will be gradually opened, especially in small and medium-sized cities. Small and medium-sized cities will become the main force to absorb rural migrant population.

The family planning policy will be implemented for a long time, so the natural growth rate of urban population is very low. As in the past 20 years, the increase of urban population will mainly come from the transfer of rural population.

According to household registration statistics, the current urban population in China is less than 500 million, which is less than the permanent population 1 100 million. /kloc-the permanent population of cities and towns above 0/100 million belongs to "incomplete migration", which is characterized by single and short-term flow. People work in cities, and family, consumption, rights exercise and protection are all carried out in rural areas. This part of the "incomplete migration" personnel will become a major social instability factor if they are not guaranteed by the system design in the future.

Therefore, it is the general trend to reform the existing household registration system and improve relevant supporting public services. It is expected that the reform of household registration system in China will be accelerated in the future, and the institutional and institutional obstacles for migrant workers to settle in cities will be further removed. Therefore, in the next 10 year, the actual urbanization rate of China will increase from about 37% to over 42%.

However, the existing household registration system cannot be completely abolished, otherwise, many other developing countries will have large-scale urban slums in China.

Because there is great resistance to the liberalization of the household registration system in big cities, and if the employment environment permits, farmers are more willing to choose cities close to home to achieve permanent migration. It is expected that more resources will be allocated to small and medium-sized cities in the future to expand their employment capacity, improve their living environment and strengthen their public service level, so that the household registration system in these cities will be completely liberalized for migrant workers.

The urbanization process will promote the growth of farmers' per capita income in China. With the accelerated increase of migrant farmers, the proportion of non-agricultural income in rural residents' income is about 40% at present, and it is expected to increase to 50% in the next 10 year. Considering that a considerable part of the transferred labor force has achieved "complete migration" and its income growth will be attributed to the urban part, the income growth of the original rural residents will be faster than that of the rural residents in the statistics.

Further reading: How to buy insurance, which is good, and teach you how to avoid these "pits" of insurance.