First of all, because the US dollar is the price mark currency of international commodities, the trend of the US dollar has a natural negative correlation with the trend of international commodities. Since the last two trading days, the US dollar index has been rising continuously, and even closed at 74.04 on Thursday, the biggest one-day increase in more than six months. The rise of the dollar itself puts pressure on commodity prices. Judging from the overall trend of commodities, CRB index has formed a local M-head shape after falling in the first two trading days, and there is also downward pressure in technology.
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Secondly, the root cause of this round of commodity rise lies in the global inflation caused by the excessive dollar after the financial crisis. The intensification of this inflation is not only reflected in the rise of commodity prices, but also in the increasingly strong financial attributes of commodities. The result of this intensified financial attribute is that the fluctuation of commodity prices is intensified under the condition of capital speculation. Therefore, the financial characteristics of commodities can be said to amplify the negative impact of the rise of the dollar to a great extent.
Thirdly, judging from the situation of the whole world economy, with the slow recovery of the world economy and the intensification of global inflation, countries gradually began to raise interest rates. With the end of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, it is generally expected that the United States will not carry out the third round of quantitative easing policy with the continuous improvement of the American economy. This means that the policies of countries around the world to stimulate the economy with loose money will come to an end, and dealing with inflation will become the main policy goal of countries in the future, which has become a strong downward expectation of commodity prices, and this expectation has also been released in the market because of the rebound of the US dollar.
It may be too early to say that this adjustment will become an inflection point in the trend of commodities. After all, the recovery of the world economy is still unstable, and the Federal Reserve has not clearly expressed its intention to tighten the currency. Yesterday, despite the rising inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and it is still uncertain when China's monetary tightening policy will turn. Therefore, the future trend of commodities will depend more on the game of monetary policies of various countries under inflationary pressure.