Crude oil is mainly used in transportation, industry, family and commerce, and power generation. The consumption of crude oil for transportation in the United States accounts for 72%, while China is the fastest growing automobile market in the world. There will be no large-scale alternative fuels in the short term. The demand for crude oil in China will continue to rise, and the rise and fall of crude oil prices will have a great impact on China and the United States.
As the pricing currency of international crude oil price, the influence of US dollar on crude oil price is much higher than that of other currencies such as euro and Japanese yen. The changing principle of currency exchange rate will also affect the trend of crude oil price. In theory, when the dollar index
When it weakens, the dollar-denominated crude oil price looks cheap from the perspective of euro or yen, and the demand will rise; On the other hand, when the dollar appreciates, the price of crude oil denominated in euros or yen will be very expensive, and the demand for crude oil will be low.
Will fall down.
The relationship between crude oil and the dollar is different from that between gold and the dollar. The price of gold is influenced by the exchange rate of the US dollar. Crude oil price and dollar price are interactive. The price of crude oil is rising, so is the world economy.
Will be affected, including the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. The inflationary pressure brought by the rising crude oil price will bring depreciation pressure to the dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the dollar is the original oil price denominated in dollars.
The grid also rises accordingly. According to experts' estimation, the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate is -0.7. In other words, high oil prices often appear at the same time as the weak dollar. A major manifestation of the current global economic imbalance is the twin deficits pattern in which the United States has a huge fiscal deficit and a current account deficit, and the US dollar has a sharp depreciation trend in the medium and long term. If the expectation of dollar depreciation cannot be eliminated, the pattern of high international crude oil prices is expected to continue.
Generally speaking, the depreciation of the dollar will contribute to the rise of crude oil prices in three aspects:
First, the depreciation of the dollar will reduce the purchasing power of crude oil producers or exporters. The price of crude oil is set in US dollars. Crude oil producing countries sell crude oil to obtain US dollars, and then convert the US dollars into other countries' currencies to buy goods from other countries in the world. Due to the depreciation of the dollar, the purchasing power of crude oil producing countries has declined. From this perspective, producing countries need to raise prices to make up for the loss of purchasing power.
Second, the depreciation of the dollar will increase the purchasing power of some oil buyers such as Europe and Japan, because the price of crude oil denominated in euros and yen becomes relatively cheap; However, the depreciation of the US dollar has no effect on the purchasing power of crude oil in countries linked to the US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, from the perspective of the global market, the depreciation of the US dollar will boost the global demand for crude oil;
Third, the depreciation of the dollar itself corresponds to the improvement of the global economy, especially the rapid development of emerging markets in the past 10 years, and the demand for crude oil is in a strong state, so it is necessary for crude oil prices to rise.