Judging from the trend of coal price in Qinhuangdao, from 2007 to now, domestic coal price has been adjusted back in the off-season of coal demand from March to April every year, but it has been on the rise since entering the summer. However, the spring correction of coal prices this year is not obvious. As of April 18, the prices of Shanxi excellent blended coal and Datong excellent blended coal were 790 yuan/ton and 840 yuan/ton, respectively, up by 14.5% and 14.3% year-on-year. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Emergency Notice on Effectively Ensuring Coal Supply and Stabilizing Coal Price" in early April, requiring all localities to take effective measures to ensure coal supply and stabilize coal prices, which also reflects the tightening of domestic coal supply. In addition, in recent years, coal production has continued to grow, and the transportation bottleneck will gradually become prominent. The rising price of gasoline has also increased the transportation cost of domestic coal. In short, under the background of high domestic inflation and tight coal supply, the rise of thermal coal in summer will be the general trend, and the rise of thermal coal will definitely push up the price of coking coal, which is more scarce, thus pushing up the production cost of coke.
The steady growth of steel demand keeps coke demand optimistic.
The demand for coke in the steel industry accounts for more than 80% of the demand for coke, so the prosperity of the steel industry directly determines the demand for coke. In March this year, domestic crude steel output was 594 1 10,000 tons, up 8.98% year-on-year, and coke output was 34.88 million tons, up 12.59% year-on-year. The output of crude steel and coke has a high year-on-year correlation, and the growth rate of crude steel is ahead of that of coke. In 2009, under the stimulus policy of 4 trillion yuan, the steel output greatly exceeded the expected growth year-on-year, which directly led to oversupply in 20 10, and suppressed the output growth rate of steel industry and coke industry in 20 10. But in 20 1 1 year, with the strong growth of domestic economy, the sustained and steady growth of demand will gradually restore the growth rate of steel production to a stable level. In this way, the serious situation of oversupply of 20 1 1 will be alleviated, and the recovery of profits in the steel industry will also drive the improvement of the coke industry and raise the price of coke.
In addition, the listing of coke futures will make the coke price market-oriented, which is beneficial to the development of coking industry and change the situation that coking industry is completely passive in pricing power. At the same time, during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the integration of Shanxi coke industry will become the key work of the government, and eliminating backward production capacity and improving the concentration of coke industry will also increase the pricing power of coking industry. In this double positive situation, if the profit rate of coking industry is increased by 3 percentage points, it means that the current price of coke will increase by about 70 yuan. At the same time, coke is driven by cost in summer, the price itself is bullish, and the storage cost of coke, so the current price of J 1 109 contract is not high.
Economic principle of coal price rise: contradiction between supply and demand