On April 8, US President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China, and on April 6, he announced that he would consider imposing tariffs on China products worth $654.38 billion, which is twice the amount officially announced by the US Trade Representative Office (USTR). Trump decided to gamble on his political future. He wants to threaten China with retaliatory tariffs and force the world's second largest economy to make concessions.
The Sino-US trade war may bring unimaginable consequences to the American economy.
Without knowing the consequences, does Trump dare to gamble on the political future?
Will Trump win the Sino-US trade war? For your own political future? Not exactly. Ben White, the chief economic reporter of American political news website, believes that if it fails, the tariff war with China can make the powerful American economic system out of order, threaten the majority of the US mid-term elections, and make the second half of Trump's first term a bleak record of impeachment crisis.
According to the report, Trump's behavior is counterproductive and will eventually defeat the United States. Coudrat, director of the US Economic Committee, said in a series of recent talks: "This is Trump's aggressive negotiation strategy, trying to get China to make concessions."
"This is not a trade war." Coudrat said, but he also said he didn't know when the tariff war would end. Facts show that even Coudrat doesn't know what Trump's actions will lead to, and neither Trump nor his chief trade negotiator Wright Heze seems to know.
China said it would fight at all costs.
China has more tricks to deal with the United States: fight, we will fight with you to the end!
Trump is facing Sino-US trade, just like his other actions, and he is in a strong position, expecting his opponent to give up. But one thing is different, that is, in this trade war, Trump is facing China with a huge economy.
In a radio interview on the 6th, Trump himself admitted that there may be some "pains" in this trade war, but it will ultimately benefit the American economy. But the so-called "small pain" may lead to Trump and the * * * party being unfavorable in the US mid-term elections.
On the 5th local time, US President Trump asked the Office of the US Trade Representative to impose tariffs on US$ 654.38 billion imported goods from China according to the "30 1 investigation". China's Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Trump with one voice, staying with him to the end, at any cost!
As soon as the voice came out, it was Friday local time. Since the opening of the US stock market that day, the three major stock indexes have plummeted. American soybean futures plunged sharply, and the stock prices of American cars, planes and soybeans all fell, especially in agriculture and manufacturing, which initially showed the adverse consequences of trade friction on the United States.
What impact will it have on China and the United States once the additional tariff of 654.38+000 billion is levied? If we look at the data of China's total exports to the United States last year, the previous $50 billion was equivalent to 1 1.6% of China's exports to the United States. If 1000 billion dollars is added, the whole 1500 billion dollars is equivalent to 35% of China's total exports to the United States. In other words, there will be a 1/3 bilateral trade tariff change between China and the United States. China will naturally affect certain exports, but for the United States, the impact is actually greater. Take soybeans in China's new tariff list as an example. Previously, soybeans involved US$ 654.38+03.9 billion, accounting for 62% of US soybean exports. So once China's tariff list comes out, it will have a direct impact on American soybean farmers, who are Trump's big ballot box.
In addition, The New York Times reported earlier that the economic impact of the US-China confrontation may also quickly cross the tariff field. The United States is prepared to propose restrictions that may prevent China from investing in high-tech industries such as semiconductors and electric vehicles, and may also consider restricting visas. China may make life difficult for many American companies operating there. As the largest creditor in the United States, China may retaliate by reducing its purchases of American debt.
In addition, China can also specifically target * * and those states that the party wants to keep the Senate seat, including Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri.
If China strikes back with soybeans, the United States will lose 90 billion a year (data map)
US Congressman: Trump's stupidity will hurt US agricultural exports.
Senator Ben Sasse, Republican of Nebraska, said: "I hope Trump is just playing hard, but he is almost serious, which is stupid." Sasse said: "Trump actually didn't win. What he did was tantamount to lighting a fire on American agricultural products, which did not help at all and was not good for the export of agricultural products. "
Trump's approach is a big headache for Republicans in Washington. Trump can emphasize economic strength, low unemployment rate and Republican tax cuts.
On the contrary, he is exerting a large-scale influence on the stock market, increasing the uncertainty about American enterprises in China, making things more difficult and possibly making inflation more intense.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's, said on Thursday: "Wage and price pressures are rising, and higher tariffs will only increase these pressures and cut employment costs in the United States. Trump's tariff policy is best to prevent China from raising tariffs, otherwise they will only increase the already high risk. " .
In other words, it is very likely that the result will be either very good or very poor.
All this is worthwhile, provided that there is a favorable prospect for the American economy, but there seems to be no such prospect at present. On the contrary, verbal bluffing may turn into a trade war, which will affect the stock market and lead to the loss of some parliamentary seats in the 1 1 mid-term elections.