Under the influence of drought, a spring offensive in the wheat market was first staged in the futures market. The main contract of Zhengzhou Qiangmai 905 closed at 20 13 at the end of February 3, and the daily limit was staged shortly after the opening on February 4. Under the guidance of spot market, drought and futures market, the first auction after the festival reached a high turnover rate of 60.44% despite the continuous auction guaranteed by the state.
The rise of the wheat market seems to be a foregone conclusion.
First, the drought in the northern winter wheat producing areas continues.
At the national video conference on drought relief and spring protection held on the 3rd, the Ministry of Agriculture introduced that the duration, scope and severity of the drought were rare in history. According to the investigation of agricultural conditions by the Ministry of Agriculture, as of February 2, wheat in Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Gansu, Shaanxi and other major producing provinces suffered from drought 1.4 1.02 million mu, an increase of 1.32 million mu over the same period last year. 65438+1in late October, the Ministry of Agriculture launched the second-level emergency response to drought, and the first-level emergency response to drought after the holiday. And sent four batches of 16 work supervision teams to promote the implementation of drought relief measures; Many times organized agricultural departments and relevant experts in the main producing areas to study drought-resistant measures, put forward technical plans, and strengthen classified guidance; Form 20 expert guidance groups and go to the main wheat producing areas with severe drought. And closely discuss the drought trend with the meteorological department and start the drought daily report system.
According to the weather forecast for the next ten days released by the Central Meteorological Observatory on February 2nd 10, there will be a precipitation process in the meteorological arid areas such as central and southern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghan and the eastern part of Northwest China around February 8th. However, due to the continuous low precipitation in the previous period, the drought in most of the above areas will continue or develop.
Second, the current drought has not had a substantial impact on production.
Ma, director of the Rural Economic Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture, said that the specific impact of the current drought on the wheat harvest in China this year will not be determined until the wheat seedlings turn green in March. According to what we have learned in some parts of Henan, the wheat in northern Henan has not been affected by the market at present. Due to the good local water conservancy construction, the problem of spring irrigation after the holiday can be effectively solved. The situation of wheat seedling yellow in the east and west of Henan Province is more than that in the north. According to the latest satellite remote sensing monitoring results, at present, the situation of wheat seedlings in the province is generally good. The proportion of first-class wheat seedlings in the province reached 52%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year; The proportion of secondary seedlings is 34.2%; The proportion of three kinds of seedlings is12.2%; The proportion of Miao Qingwang was 1.6%, which was 0.6 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Compared with the same period in recent years, the seedling situation is a normal year. Facing the coming green period of wheat, Henan proposed to irrigate more than 70 million mu of wheat in the province in the next 10 day, and Shandong also prepared a plan to draw water from all places with water, such as the Yellow River and Shandong Reservoir. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture has sent five working groups and wheat expert guidance groups led by our Ministry to nine major wheat producing provinces such as Henan and Anhui to supervise drought relief work, which will bring more protection to wheat production this year.
The third is to entrust the continuous auction of grain to ensure market supply.
According to the forecast of China's agricultural department,
In 2008, China's total grain output was about 528.5 million tons, up about 26.9 million tons year-on-year, with an increase of about 5.4%, which was about 3.2% higher than the historical peak of 1998. Among them, the wheat yield is expected to reach11.75 million tons, with an increase of about 2.45 million tons or 2.2%. According to the data calculated by China Grain Network, the wheat consumption in China in 2008/09 is expected to be102.8 million tons, with the annual balance of 9.05 million tons. The supply and demand situation is relatively loose throughout the year. Judging from the staged supply of the current wheat market, in 2008, all kinds of grain enterprises in1kloc-0/major wheat-producing provinces purchased 58.666 million tons of new wheat in 2008, an increase of162.42 million tons year-on-year. Among them, state-owned grain enterprises purchased 50.878 million tons, accounting for 87% of the total purchase, an increase of14.729 million tons. Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and other provinces entrusted grain depots to purchase 42.027 million tons at the minimum purchase price, accounting for 83% of the total purchase amount of state-owned grain enterprises, up 654.38+038 year-on-year. At present, the grain source on the market mainly comes from the national grain depot, which also ensures the orderly supply of the market.
Fourth, national regulation is still the main factor affecting the trend of wheat in the market outlook.
On June 9 last year 10, the state substantially raised the minimum purchase price of wheat produced in 2009. The minimum purchase price per 50kg of white wheat, red wheat and mixed wheat was increased to 87 yuan, 83 yuan and 83 yuan respectively, which was about 10 yuan higher than that in 2008. The rise of the national market price this year makes it inevitable to raise the reserve price of wheat auction in 2008, which will form a strong support for the market price of wheat this year. However, we should also see that with the increase of grain sources in the hands of the state, the ability to regulate the market is getting stronger and stronger. Judging from the No.1 Document of the Central Committee after the holiday, the focus of the state's support and protection of agriculture this year is still to improve the rural investment environment and direct grain subsidies, expand the national grain, cotton, edible vegetable oil and pork reserves, and maintain a reasonable level of agricultural products prices.
On the whole, in the context of the current global economic downturn, continuing to pursue high risks will be greatly enhanced.