Commodity price fluctuations gradually affect the stock market. At the macro level, the rise in commodities has pushed up global inflation expectations, which in turn affects the direction of monetary policy in some economies; at the micro level of corporate profits, although rising raw material prices can be transmitted downwards, poor transmission will affect the profits of midstream and downstream companies. In addition, serious supply chain problems will also affect corporate profit prospects.

However, regarding the stock market trends in different countries and regions, analysts recommend analyzing specific situations and focusing on comparative advantages. For example, my country's inflationary pressure is far lower than that of some major overseas economies, and it has the world's largest and relatively complete industrial chain. Therefore, amid global asset fluctuations, economic and corporate fundamentals are more certain.

Although the GDP volume of Russia and Ukraine is relatively small in the world, the economic structure of the two countries determines that this conflict will have a significant impact on the global supply of commodities. Specifically, Russian crude oil production accounts for about 13% of global crude oil consumption. Russia is also a major supplier of metals such as aluminum, nickel, and palladium. Ukraine’s area of ??influence is mainly agricultural products, and Ukrainian wheat exports account for 10% of global wheat exports. %about.

Guo Lei, chief economist of GF Securities, believes that in 2022 "increased global inflation pressure - tightening of overseas monetary policies - convergence of overseas liquidity" is one of the main clues from the macro perspective. Recently, with the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have risen faster than expected, and food prices have also risen faster. The risk of the superimposed epidemic has not been eliminated, and multiple factors have simultaneously exacerbated the uncertainty of global inflation.

In Guo Lei’s view, on the one hand, there is a positive correlation logic between crude oil and other bulk commodity prices and equity assets, that is, the continued recovery of the economy is reflected in both oil prices and equity markets; on the other hand, there is also a negative correlation. The logic is that oil prices are more indicative of rising inflationary pressures, leading to the convergence of liquidity expectations that the equity market is worried about. Judging from the reality, the second half of 2021 has been a typical "negative correlation period", which is manifested in that "inflation characteristics have raised the investment costs of growth assets."

Li Lifeng, chief strategist of West China Securities, reviewed the two oil crises in the 1970s. He believes that both oil crises intensified the risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve accordingly adopted tightening policies such as shrinking the money supply and raising interest rates, which to a certain extent caused equity market funds to seek safe havens in stages.