The two months of August and September every year are the off-season for sales in the Chinese market, and the international gold price will fall during these two months. The lowest price of gold fell to 223 yuan/gram from August to September last year. From December to May of the following year every year, the price of gold will rise during this period.

Gold price fluctuations are based on supply and demand. If the production of gold increases significantly, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. In addition, the application of new gold mining technologies, the discovery of new mines, and the central bank's acceptance of gold will all put pressure on gold prices.

The interactive relationship between the price of gold and the trend of the US dollar is very close. It usually shows an inverse interactive relationship in which the US dollar rises and the gold price falls, and the US dollar falls and the yellow price rises. But there are also extreme special circumstances. When gold moves very strongly or very weakly, it will get rid of the influence of the U.S. dollar.

When a country adopts a loose monetary policy, due to the decline in interest rates, the country's money supply increases, increasing the possibility of inflation, which will cause the price of gold to rise.

Looking at the current trend, I personally think it is unlikely that the price will drop. The price will only get higher and higher in the future. The domestic gold trend is still very different from the international gold trend. When the international price rises, the domestic price rises, and the international gold price rises. Even if prices drop, prices will still rise in China. Considering the national conditions, there is a 90% probability that prices will not drop!

The price of gold is still at a relatively high level, and the direction is not yet clear, but what is certain is that there is definitely room and time for the price of gold to fall. It is just that it is not yet clear when it will fall. Then The only way to know is to wait and wait for the market to give a clear direction.

The seasonal pattern of gold price fluctuations

For a long time, the seasonal pattern of commodity prices has been one of the commonly used indicators in the futures market. As a gold market with dual attributes of commodities and finance, it also has seasonal patterns to follow. Throughout the history of gold trading, the trend of gold prices over the years has also been highly seasonal.

It can be seen from the historical trends of gold in each month that gold prices generally fall back from February to April, begin to rise in May, and remain volatile in June and July. Prices rebounded sharply in August and September, and the upward trend continued until the end of the year.

Analysis of the seasonal pattern of gold prices

By analyzing the probability of gold price rising every month from 1974 to 2008, we will find a very strong seasonal pattern. Analyzing the seasonal pattern of gold prices is nothing more than exploring the answers to the following questions: When does gold price tend to rise and fall during the year? When does the gold price rise most strongly and when does it rise weakest? What other features are there?

Gold prices have three rising peaks in a year, namely September, October and December. Among them, the average increase in September and October is the largest, reaching 2.80%. The other two lows in the gold price increase throughout the year both occurred in the third month after the peak rise in April and December, that is, in July and March.