Driven by the sharp rise in the closing price of copper futures in the international metal market, Shanghai copper futures were also very active last week. Last Monday, there was a long-lost daily limit, and it has been fluctuating higher since then. The July contract performed well this week. Not only did the positions increase daily, but the turnover also reached a new high, which has replaced the leading contract in June. The 0307 contract rose by 550 yuan in a week and closed at 17640 yuan last Friday. The copper turnover in one cycle is 4 1.46 thousand lots, and the turnover is 3.651.40 thousand yuan.

However, for this market, the industry is cautiously optimistic. Because this wave of rising prices in the copper market is not caused by big fundamental news, but is mainly driven by fund buying and buying in China and Australia. Therefore, both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange showed weakness last weekend, and there was a tendency to adjust at the top.

Sternby, an international analyst at Barclays Capital, believes that unless you see the economic data of Lido, it is difficult for basic metals to break through the rise. The manufacturing data to be released by Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Institute of Supply Management (ISM) in Chicago is the real key, and these two data will be widely concerned by the market. Other industry analysts believe that PMI or ISM data will not change much, and most forecasts are neutral. Some analysts say that unless the data is particularly good or bad, it will not have a great impact on the basic metals. However, according to the recently released data, it would be surprising if both data are quite strong.

According to the analysis of Peng Futures Company, from a technical point of view, the current copper price should be on the upper track of the recent upward channel, and the trend in these days also proves that the pressure here is unusual. In addition, the fundamental factors do not match the sharp rise of copper, and the cloud of war is also a major factor hindering the further rise of copper prices. Investors are advised to lighten their positions on rallies.

The medium-term futures company believes that although there is a lack of consumer buying in the copper market at present, producers are reluctant to sell when they are optimistic that the market will turn to cattle and go higher. On the whole, the technical aspect of copper futures is conducive to further continuing the upward trend of shocks, and in the case that the market is dominated by fund bulls, the bullish indicators may be more effective in encouraging the market atmosphere. However, the technical form of $65,438+0.750 ~ $65,438 +0.760 has obvious resistance. Therefore, in the case that short-term copper cannot effectively impact the resistance of 1.750 ~ 1.760 USD, the copper price may be adjusted back.

Analysts at Shida Futures Company said that short-term copper prices obviously lacked their own upward momentum. The domestic spot market was hit by a large number of imported copper, which led to the weakening of the price and made the futures price lose more support. After experiencing a short-term sharp rise, domestic copper prices have also encountered the pressure of profit taking, which also requires correction. Of course, as the short-term international copper price is still on the rise, in this case, the current range fluctuation of domestic copper price can still be regarded as a short-term adjustment, and there is still a chance for copper price to test upwards after a short-term correction.