200 1, 1 After China joined the WTO in February, its export share increased all the way, and the RMB also entered a period of continuous appreciation. We know that in the past, our country mainly exported low-end manufacturing products to develop the domestic economy and solve the employment problem of domestic residents. In this context, the sustained foreign trade surplus has promoted the appreciation of RMB. However, we must know that at this stage, our foreign trade products are relatively low-end manufacturing products, and their industrial competitiveness is not high. We cannot tolerate too much appreciation of the RMB, which is not conducive to exports. In this process, the government and the central bank are generally cautious about appreciation. The central bank will buy dollars in the foreign exchange market and sell RMB at the same time, which will curb the appreciation of RMB and lead to the passive release of the base currency.

The second stage: 20 15-20 19, RMB depreciation cycle.

By 20 15, the export share peaked and the appreciation of RMB ended simultaneously. With the decline of export share, the RMB has entered a depreciation cycle that lasts for five years.

The third stage: From 2020, the strong appreciation cycle of RMB will begin.

The sudden epidemic situation has tested and strengthened the advantages of China's manufacturing industry, accelerated the creation of an excellent time window for China's brand, superimposed the upgrading of manufacturing industry, and promoted the rapid growth of exports again!

The advantages of China's own industrial chain integrity and the completeness of its infrastructure are not available in other countries. Against the background of this year's epidemic, the supply advantage of China's industry is fully reflected.

In addition, you will find that China can still maintain a certain competitive advantage in low-end manufacturing, and start to seize market share in high-end manufacturing.

If the high export growth in the first half of 2020 is driven by the export of epidemic prevention materials; Then after the second half of 2020, if the export continues to maintain high growth, it can no longer be said that it is still driven by epidemic prevention materials. In fact, since the second half of 2020, China's high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products have a strong export momentum.

China's trade deficit with high-end manufacturing powers has also begun to reverse and continue to shrink.

In the past, China was basically in a state of trade deficit with Japan, Germany, South Korea and other countries. This is because the manufacturing industry in these countries is a high-end industry, and we can't do it. We can only import from these countries. Now China has begun to accelerate the import substitution and localization of high-end manufacturing, which naturally weakens the import demand for Japanese, German, Korean and other countries.

In essence, the appreciation of a country's exchange rate reflects the improvement of its competitiveness and valuation. You can better understand this by looking at the exchange rate trends of Japan, Germany, South Korea and some developing countries.

At present, after the industrial upgrading to a certain extent, China has global competitiveness and can tolerate RMB re-entering the appreciation channel to a greater extent.

In addition, China's current foreign exchange reserves account for only 2%, which is still very low. Obviously, this ratio is very disproportionate to the proportion of China's economy in the whole global economy.

With China's industrial upgrading and the continuous improvement of global competitiveness, there will be a general trend of increasing RMB asset allocation and further promoting RMB appreciation in the future.

Generally speaking, the duration and final appreciation of this round of RMB appreciation will far exceed everyone's expectations.

This is what I have emphasized countless times. This is the luck of our nation and the lowest logical basis for optimistic about the market!

What to buy for RMB appreciation?

1. Big finance benefits the most. At present, the turning point of business logic is great peace.

2. Buy machinery and equipment industries and chemical industries with high export ratio.

Buy high-tech industries that used to rely on imports and are now replaced by domestic ones.