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Xu Haixi: Novices are courageous, but veterans are timid.
In daily life, if we comment on someone's cowardice, the related words are cowardice, timidity and hesitation. There is no doubt that this is a derogatory term. And "bold" often means "brave", "decisive" and "innovative". In the context of reform and opening up, "courage" is a symbol of advanced productive forces, a force for social progress and a commendatory term.

There is also a proverb in the futures market, "Novices are bold, but veterans are timid". This sentence not only appears in many articles and books, but also is constantly verified by people around you and even yourself. At that time, I just started futures trading, learned some technical analysis and saw some forms. Once he made a right wave of market and made some money, he immediately "learned the spirit of a scholar, reprimanded Fang Qiu, pointed out the mountains and rivers, inspired the writing, and made soil in Wan Huhou in that year". After that, I became bolder and bolder. When trading, I felt as if the whole world was under control. Just like Jack in the movie Titanic, he stood at the bow with open arms and shouted, "I am the king of the world!" "

When the veterans around me kindly reminded me that I couldn't do this, I didn't say anything on the surface, but I secretly laughed: after all, I am a veteran, but I am timid. This proverb is completely correct. "Novices are brave, but veterans are timid." If you are so timid, don't do futures. Isn't futures about taking risks?

Experienced people told me that the capital of futures entering the market for the first time should be one-third of the total capital, and then it can be pyramid-shaped, with a maximum position of about half. However, an old hand, everyone called Mr. P, did not operate as mentioned above. His fund management left a deep impression on me, which is still fresh in my memory. In the huge surge of copper price in 2004, Shanghai copper price soared from 30,000 yuan/ton to about 90,000 yuan/ton. At that time, most traders could see that this was a big market, and many people were doing too much. However, when the volatility is severe, many people can't afford temporary losses and go out one after another. And this P teacher, with a capital of 200,000 yuan, only opened a copper hand. You know, at that time, the primary copper mine only needed about 20 thousand, and the money of 200 thousand could be 10 lot at most. But he only used 10% deposit.

For the average person, basically open at least 3 lots first, and then continue to increase the price after making a profit. I remember that my own account with almost the same amount of money started with 2 lots, and the biggest increase was 1 1 lot, but a huge callback swept me out of the game and basically made no money. And this teacher P, sit firmly on the Diaoyutai. Therefore, the final result is that when those traders who took the right direction in the market but held large positions were shot to the ground and swept out of the house, Teacher P quietly doubled the total amount of funds. Although most people have seen the right market and done the right market, they have not made any money. This is really a kind of sadness.

This phenomenon can be well explained by mathematical language. Scientists have found that the greater the probability of bankruptcy, the greater the variance of the results. Although the mathematical expectation of different schemes under different ruin probabilities is the same, the scheme with small ruin probability is closer to the mathematical expectation. Simply put, you can make futures if you are bold, but there is a premise that you should stop loss in time when you earn it. If we continue to go boldly, the probability of bankruptcy is huge. But timid people can achieve long-term and stable growth by doing futures. If you want to make futures speculation a lifelong career, then listen as a compliment. Always keep the state of "a gentleman works all day and works diligently at night", and walk on thin ice with caution. I think, if you are brave in futures, it is not far from "Kang Long has regrets".

There is a saying: there are old pilots and brave pilots, but there are no brave old pilots.