The basic analysis method is an analytical method to predict the trend of commodity prices according to the output, consumption and inventory (or the gap between supply and demand), that is, according to the relationship between supply and demand of commodities and various factors affecting the change of supply and demand. The basic analysis method has three characteristics: first, it analyzes the long-term trend of price changes, which is the so-called general trend; The second is to study the root causes of price changes; The third is to mainly analyze macro factors. The main factors affecting commodity futures prices are:
1, the relationship between supply and demand: it is the most fundamental factor and foundation that affects commodity futures prices.
The demand of commodity market usually consists of three parts: domestic consumption, export volume and final commodity balance. The factors that affect the change of domestic consumption are: the change of consumer purchasing power, the change of population growth and consumption structure, government income and employment policy, etc. The ending balance of commodities is one of the most important data to analyze the trend of futures commodity prices.
The supply of commodity market mainly consists of three parts: pre-inventory, current production and current import. Pre-inventory can be divided into producer inventory, operator inventory and government inventory. The current product output itself is a variable. This is especially true for agricultural products that are greatly affected by natural factors, especially some commodities that cannot be stored. For agricultural products futures, we must pay attention to the analysis and study of the changes in sowing area, climate, crop production conditions, production costs and government agricultural policies in order to better grasp the current production. The actual import volume of commodities often changes for political or economic reasons. Therefore, we should know and master the changes of international situation, price level, import policy and import volume as soon as possible.
2. Economic fluctuation cycle factors The price fluctuation of the futures market is not only related to the domestic economic cycle, but also related to the economic prosperity of all countries in the world. Generally, economic prosperity and depression can be judged by economic growth rate, gross national product and other indicators, while inflation can be judged by money supply and various price indexes.
3. Financial and monetary factors The impact of financial and monetary factors on futures prices is mainly manifested in interest rates and exchange rates. Fluctuations in interest rates or exchange rates of major international currencies such as the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the euro have a very obvious restrictive effect on futures market prices.
4. Political factors The futures market is extremely sensitive to changes in the policy climate, and fluctuations in the political situation often have different degrees of impact on futures prices. Political factors have strong constraints on the futures market.
5. Policy factors, policies and measures also have great influence on futures prices. In addition to changes in domestic policies and measures, changes in policies of international commodity agreements and organizations also have an impact on futures market prices. Some major commodity producers and consumers in the world, such as oil, copper, rubber, coffee and cocoa, have concluded trade agreements and established international trade organizations.
6. Corresponding to the price trend of the same variety in the international futures market.
7. Speculative funds and speculative psychological factors 8. Natural factors Natural factors are mainly climatic conditions, geographical changes and natural disasters. The production and consumption of grain, metals, energy and other commodities listed on the futures exchange are closely related to natural conditions.