1. American cotton futures soared to a new high after June 20, 202 10/0, reaching $0/.16 per pound, with a cumulative increase of 47% this year. As the world's first cotton exporter, American cotton prices began to skyrocket. The United States has mastered the pricing power of cotton. This year, USDA frequently speculated that extreme weather such as hurricanes, droughts and heat waves destroyed cotton crops all over the United States, leading to the expectation that the export volume will be greatly reduced this year.
2. Market consumption. There are a large number of commercial stocks of cotton at the supply end+a large number of new cotton+imported cotton, and the cotton supply is sufficient in a short time; On the demand side, with the recovery of domestic economy, domestic demand will continue to improve and export orders for external demand will continue to improve.
3. Domestic market. The improvement of domestic downstream consumption and the strengthening of external prices also led to the strengthening of domestic prices. The cotton produced in the United States meets the import demand of China to some extent. According to the data of USDA, since the beginning of the new sales year in August 1, the speed of American cotton export to China is 83% higher than that of the same period last year. In the long run, consumption will improve, supply will be relatively stable, and the center of gravity of cotton prices will gradually move up.
4. International market. At present, the United States has made good progress in signing cotton contracts in 2020, and the cotton output in the new year has decreased. Although the epidemic has affected foreign consumers, it is expected to be lower than the same period last year and will remain relatively low for a long time. At present, the clothing inventory in the United States is low. In the new year, US cotton production continued to decrease, and cotton contracts were in good condition. China's large purchases are good for the sales of American cotton, and the fundamentals of American cotton are good.
5. American cotton futures, the most actively traded on the intercontinental exchange, closed up 0.4% on Monday at $0.05 per pound/kloc-0, maintaining the highest level of 438+0 1 since September 1965. In the past 10 trading days, cotton futures prices have risen by 18%. Clothing prices may go up in the future.
Although the domestic cotton futures price in China has been rising in step with the external market recently, the external events have a great influence on cotton prices, and the malicious sanctions imposed by foreign companies are the most obvious example. In addition, the repeated outbreaks of overseas countries, especially the European Union, may also affect the orders and exports of cotton products in China. However, the recent international provocations against China, especially those of the United States and some western European countries, have also affected the demand for cotton exports. This has brought instability to cotton prices.