The world economic situation in 2009 is complicated and changeable. The decline in GDP growth in the first half of the year seems to indicate that the Great Depression is about to reappear. In the second half of the year, the rising PMI index made us feel the warmth of economic recovery. In this context, the domestic corn market has also rebounded from the downturn at the end of 2008, achieving "phoenix nirvana". The spot price of corn has increased all over the country this year, but the DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) corn index can comprehensively reflect the basic trend of the corn market. Since the beginning of the year, the corn index has been climbing from the low point 1.566 yuan/ton, and once surpassed the high point 1.804 yuan/ton, with an increase of 238 yuan/ton, which is relatively strong. Looking at the corn market in 2009, we can analyze its trend in five stages. Figure 1 DCE The first stage of the step-by-step increase of corn index: favorable policies support the upward trend of corn (from the beginning of the year to March 20). The corn index reached the lowest level 1452 yuan/ton on February 5, 2008 under the multiple pressures of the intensified financial crisis, record high yield and weak downstream demand. At that time, the state decisively launched the third batch of temporary storage purchase plans on February 24, 65438, with an acquisition volume of 20 million tons. Under the favorable impetus of the government's stock market purchase, corn prices began to bottom out and rebound. Especially after the promulgation of "Several Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting the Stable Development of Agriculture and Increasing Farmers' Income in 2009", the state once again showed its "big hand" on February 19, and started the fourth batch of temporary storage and storage of corn, with a total amount of100000 tons. So far, from the end of 2008 to February 2009, the state has launched four batches of temporary purchasing and storage plans, totaling 40 million tons. The acquisition is aimed at the four northeastern provinces. In 2008, the total output of corn in these four regions was about 60 million tons, that is, the government controlled nearly 70% of the corn in these main producing areas. As a result, the price of corn in the main producing areas rose rapidly, which in turn drove the price of corn in North China and Guangdong to rise. After entering March, with the acquisition progress and the decrease of grain sources in the market, the price of corn in Northeast China accelerated and reached a stage high. In the same period, the DCE corn index also reached the peak 17 12 yuan/ton at the end of March. The second stage: sluggish demand leads to market decline (March 21-August 12). At the beginning of April, 2009, the World Bank released an economic report, arguing that the global GDP will end its eight-year strong growth and is expected to shrink by 1.7% this year. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics also released the economic data in March, in which CPI, M 1, fiscal revenue, power generation, industrial added value, retail sales of social consumer goods, total import and export 10 indicators all dropped significantly. The domestic and international economy is overcast and the prospects are not optimistic. Under the shadow of the crisis, deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises are struggling, and the early temporary storage purchase is coming to an end, and the demand for corn has shrunk dramatically. For corn deep processing enterprises, on the one hand, the purchase of temporary storage in the early stage led to a sharp rise in corn prices, which increased the procurement cost of enterprises; On the other hand, the prices of end products such as alcohol have not risen simultaneously. The profit margin of enterprises has been squeezed to the limit. For feed enterprises, influenza A (H 1N 1) broke out in the United States and spread rapidly to China, which triggered a "pork panic" among domestic consumers, and further led to a drop in the price of live pigs from 13 yuan/kg in early February to 9.7 yuan/kg in early June, with a drop of more than 25%. Although the World Health Organization later indicated that influenza A (H 1N 1) was not necessarily related to pigs, before July, the price of pigs was always below 10 yuan, and the ratio of pigs to food was below the break-even point of 6: 1. As a result, the enthusiasm of breeding enterprises is low, the operation of feed enterprises is quite difficult, and the demand for feed corn is rising slowly. During this period, the State Council held a meeting on April 22nd, proposing "arranging investment in the central budget ... to improve the operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises". Subsequently, the state decided to raise the export tax rebate rate of corn starch and alcohol to 5% from June 1 day, and cancel the temporary tariff on corn export, with the intention of boosting the corn market. However, global corn consumption is still weak, and domestic corn prices have not reached a new high, but have entered a long downward channel. The third stage: dry weather leads to crazy market (August1March-August 3 1). From August 13 to the end of August, the DCE corn index rose by nearly 100 yuan/ton in just over ten days. In the same period, the price of corn in Shekou and other ports in Guangdong soared, resulting in a situation of "no market for price". In the end, it was the dry weather in the main corn producing areas that gave birth to this wave of rapid growth. This wave of drought, which began in early August, has spread to the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia and other major corn and soybean producing areas. Severe drought has led to poor harvests in many major corn producing areas, especially in Fuxin, Chaoyang, Liaoyang and Jinzhou, Liaoning Province. Judging from the regular reports of the National Grain and Oil Information Center and the US Department of Agriculture at that time, it is generally expected that corn production will drop sharply in 2009. During this period, economic indicators such as electricity consumption and PMI showed that the domestic economy began to bottom out, and some deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises began to return to work. With the increase of demand and the serious disaster of new works, many enterprises began to accelerate the purchase of corn, which boosted the spot market price. At the same time, the auction of temporarily stored corn has also received a positive response from the market. At the same time, various funds took the opportunity to enter the market to speculate on corn futures. On the day of 13 alone, the turnover of corn index surged from more than 70,000 lots the day before to 920,000 lots. The drought ignited and the funds fanned the flames, which jointly created this wave of skyrocketing in August. The fourth stage: rational return. The market is calm (September1-165438+1October 9). After madness, it will return to reality. After more than ten days of hurricanes, the driving force of drought gradually failed, and the market began to re-examine the fundamentals of corn. Since 2003, China's total corn output has started from1.1.60 billion tons, increasing year by year. In 2008, the total output of corn exceeded 65.438+0.65 billion tons, while the total consumption was 65.438+0.52 billion tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was as high as 34.93% (four consecutive increases). It can be seen that China's corn supply is not tight. Although the main producing areas suffered from drought in August 2009, the sown area of corn has increased this year, so the total output can still be maintained at about 65.438+0.55 billion tons. Coupled with the ending inventory of 53.09 million tons last year, domestic supply is still relatively abundant. Faced with this reality, all kinds of funds have stepped out of the crazy game in the early stage, and the turnover of DCE corn index has also dropped sharply from 6.5438+0 million lots in the early stage to about 6.5438+0 million lots. During this period, with the processing enterprises and feed enterprises in Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong and other coastal areas gradually resuming their operations, the demand has increased compared with the first and second quarters. Therefore, after the auction of temporary corn was started on July 2 1, the state began to implement the inter-provincial corn allocation auction plan on September 15, in order to alleviate the urgent needs of the main selling areas in the south. Before 10, due to the impact of drought on the market and the fact that new works have not yet been listed, most enterprises hoped for national temporary storage auction and inter-provincial transfer auction. During this period, the transaction rate and average transaction price of corn transactions were relatively high. After entering 5438+ 10 in June, the demand upsurge of "Double Festival" receded, and new corn works in Northeast China and North China began to appear on the market. The market generally believes that the auction price of temporary storage and inter-provincial warehouse transfer is too high, so the transaction situation of corn has also declined. Table 1 1 10/0/0/0/Up to now, the fifth stage: the snow and ice disaster led to the corn harvest (110/0). Since the beginning of June, heavy snow has fallen in the central and northern parts of China. However, going too far is not enough. Because of the heavy snowfall, "Xue Rui", which was originally beneficial to alleviate the drought in the early stage of the north, has evolved into a "once-in-a-century" snowstorm. During this period, the Bureau of Statistics announced the economic growth of China in the third quarter. With the support of 8.67 trillion new credit and a number of revitalization policies, the GDP growth rate rebounded to a high level of 8.9%, while the CPI growth rate was -0.5%, and it is just around the corner to turn positive. The economic recovery and the arrival of the end of the year have promoted the consumption boom of corn. However, the snowstorm has caused the circulation of agricultural products such as corn to stagnate. There is a state of "half seawater and half flame" in the corn market in the north and south regions. There is a backlog of corn in the main producing area here because of the difficulty of transporting it abroad, and the shortage of supply in the main selling area there leads to a sharp drop in port inventory. At the same time, USDA reported that as of the week of 165438+ 10/5, the corn harvest rate in the United States was only 54% (77% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 89%); China's CPI is about to turn positive, and the growth rate of M2 of nearly 30% has boosted inflation expectations. Finally, with the delay of corn harvest in the United States and the inflation expectation in China, the "once-in-a-century" snowstorm set off another wave of corn price increase. From the spot market, the price of corn in Guangdong and other major sales areas rose rapidly. 165438+1At the beginning of October, the price of first-grade corn produced in the northeast of Shekou Port was about 1880- 1890 yuan/ton. In less than a month, the price of similar corn rose by nearly 100 yuan, once exceeding the high of 2000 yuan/ton. The corn markets in Guangxi and Sichuan are quite similar. From the perspective of national reserve transactions, both the average transaction price and the transaction rate have been greatly improved, whether it is temporary storage corn transactions or inter-provincial corn transactions. Take South China Grain Trading Center as an example. On June 24th 1 65438+February1,the transaction price of corn rose, and the transaction rate reached 100%! From the futures market, since 165438+ 10 10, the trading volume of DCE corn index has suddenly increased to a new high in a month, and the positions have gradually increased and stabilized at around 300,000 lots. As of February 3rd, 65438, the corn index rose rapidly from 1750 yuan/ton to 1804 yuan/ton in less than one month. After that, with the gradual retreat of the snowstorm, the grain circulation channels began to recover. Corn in the north can be quickly transported to all parts of the south. The upward trend of corn market price has weakened. An overview of the corn market in 2009 will help us to see the key factors that lead to the rise and fall of corn prices in different periods, and then help us to lay out 20 10 years. Looking forward to the corn market in China in the coming year, we should pay attention to the following points. First of all, the government is still the dominant force in the corn market. In 2009, the policy of purchasing and storing corn was settled. We analyzed the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Purchasing Autumn Grain in Northeast China in 2009" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments, and learned that there are two highlights in this purchasing and storage policy: First, the main body of purchasing and storage is diversified. That is, processing enterprises such as COFCO and Hualiang are allowed to participate in the acquisition together with China Grain Storage, and a subsidy of 50- 100 yuan/ton is given; The second is to encourage enterprises in the main sales area to purchase corn in Northeast China and give 70 yuan/ton subsidy. In order to stabilize the domestic corn market and improve the operating rate of processing enterprises, the state may continue to implement these policies on 20 10. However, because the purchase price and subsidies are decided by the government, the main tone of the government's right to speak in the corn market will not change. Second, the linkage between internal and external disks has been continuously enhanced. Adding DCE corn index and CBOT corn index, it is found that the trend of corn prices at home and abroad is synchronous except for the impact of natural disasters and other emergencies. This may provide a reference path for us to observe the domestic corn price trend. Third, the disadvantages of too little inventory in the main sales area will still appear. The main sales area in China is far from the main production area. Once the circulation is blocked, the "distant water" in the main producing area can't solve the "near thirst" in the main selling area. Especially during the ice and snow disaster, the price of corn in the main sales area often rises sharply due to insufficient supply, which in turn drives the price of the whole corn market to rise sharply. As a result, the procurement cost of enterprises has increased sharply, and farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, which is not conducive to the sustained and healthy development of the corn industry. This phenomenon may be greatly reduced if the scale of corn reserves in the main sales areas can be appropriately increased in the coming year. Fourth, the guidance of futures prices has gradually increased. In the past two years, the futures market has developed rapidly. Many corn spot enterprises began to pay attention to or participate in futures trading. This makes the participants of DCE corn index more diversified, and its trend becomes the main "direction indicator" of the market. Fifth, the seasonal increase in corn prices has become more and more obvious. August-September of each year is a critical period for corn growth, and it is also a stage of frequent disasters such as drought in the main producing areas. Analyzing the corn price trend in recent five years, we find that speculative funds often take the opportunity to speculate and trigger a wave of rising prices. If the drought recurs from August to September in 20 10, corn prices may still rise similarly. There are many factors that affect the trend of 20 10 corn market, such as global economic and trade recovery, output and import and export policies, USDA periodic reports, CFTC net capital, crude oil price fluctuation, weather conditions in major corn producing areas, and government temporary storage auctions. But on the whole, the trend of commodity market including corn and the economic situation are interdependent. In the second half of 2008, the domestic and international economy fell sharply, and corn prices fell again and again; In 2009, the global economic recovery accelerated, and the corn market turned from cloudy to sunny. It is true that it is clear to look back at the past from now on, but it is chaotic to look forward to the future from now on. However, at 20 10, when the economic prospect is gradually improving, with the increase of inflation expectations and the persistence of the weakness of the US dollar, it undoubtedly provides a strong support for corn prices.