A new round of domestic oil price adjustment is scheduled for 24: 00 on September 2 1 day. Under the linkage mechanism of domestic gasoline and diesel prices and crude oil prices, domestic oil prices may be greatly reduced before the National Day holiday this year!
As can be seen from the data, the oil price adjustment has changed greatly, and the continuous negative operation has further widened the decline. If this change can continue, we will see that the oil price adjustment will once again usher in a decline.
The international oil price suffered another setback, falling to the lowest point since 65438+ 10. The settlement price of West Texas light crude oil on the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange in June, 2022 was $8 1.94 per barrel, the lowest since June, 1. 1, down $4.94 from the previous trading day, and the trading range was $8 1.5-87.76. In 20221October, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange 165438+ USD 88.00 per barrel was the lowest since 65438+1October 24th, which was 4.83 USD or 5.2% lower than the previous trading day, and the trading range was 87.4 USD -93.80 USD.
Core logic: the international oil price fluctuates at a low level, and the NDRC's new round of wholesale and retail price limit may be lowered. After the domestic oil market rises, it enters a period of high fluctuation, unreasonable bubbles may be squeezed out, and prices may fall back rationally; At present, most of the prices have been pushed up, and the downstream just needs to purchase less, and the price lacks upward support. However, diesel resources are tight and there is limited room for decline.
The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in a big way, the exchange rate of the US dollar will strengthen, the worries of economic recession will intensify, and the international oil price will fall again, to the lowest point since 65438+ 10. This is in sharp contrast with the high domestic market price. Coupled with poor refinery shipments, refining prices may be the first to fall; The main unit may adjust according to the richness of resources, and it is more likely to be stable or small.
So looking back recently, there has been no new progress in the international geopolitical situation and the Iranian issue. Concerns about energy supply in Europe continue, and expectations of tight supply still exist. However, the focus of the market has shifted to the Fed's interest rate hike and economic outlook concerns, and there is still downward pressure on international oil prices. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices continue to be high, the purchasing mentality of the middle and lower reaches tends to be cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly weakened. However, in the middle and late months, the pressure on the main sales task has increased, and promotion activities are not ruled out. After the current gasoline and diesel prices skyrocket, beware of the risk of falling back in the middle and late stages, and suggest that the industry be cautious in hoarding goods.