According to the 20 12,16,5438+02, 12 global oilseed supply and demand forecast issued by USDA, 12/ 13 global oilseed production forecast is 454.8 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons compared with last month's forecast. The global soybean production increased by 3/4 of the total output, and the United States and Uruguay increased soybean production. The sowing progress is coming to an end, and it is expected that the soybean planting area and yield in Uruguay will increase. The export demand of soybean meal in the United States increased, and the soybean crush increased by 20 million bushels to 65.438+0.56 billion bushels.
The following figure is the chart of USDA2007-20 12 annual supply and demand report (unit: million tons). As can be seen from the chart, the output and consumption of soybean meal have been rising since 2008, and the output of soybean meal is higher than the consumption. It is estimated that the global soybean meal output will be182.35 million tons in 20 12, which is higher than the consumption. The estimated inventory is 9.05 million tons, slightly lower than 20 1 1. Although there was a drought in the United States in 20 12, the high soybean market price stimulated the growth of soybean planting area. Last year, the global soybean meal ending inventory was the highest in the past five years, and it is estimated that the global soybean meal supply exceeds demand. These expectations have formed a short market pattern of soybean meal futures prices.
Domestic supply situation
According to the report on the supply and demand of soybean meal in various countries and regions released by USDA (see the figure below), the output and consumption of soybean meal have been increasing since 2008, and the output of soybean meal has been higher than the consumption. According to the latest estimation of USDA, the soybean crushing capacity in China will reach 60.97 million tons in 20 12 years. Since 0.2 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal can be produced per 1 ton of soybean, it can be predicted that the output of soybean meal will reach 48.776 million tons, an increase of more than 2 million tons over the previous year. Due to the high price of 20 12 soybean meal, the price of downstream aquaculture products did not rise sharply, which inhibited the demand for soybean meal. It is estimated that the domestic soybean meal supply will exceed the demand in 20 12 years.