Since 2004, the economic operation of China's petroleum and chemical industries has maintained a rapid growth momentum. From June to May, the crude oil output was 71478,300 tons, up by1.8% year-on-year; Crude oil imports were 49.76 million tons, up 37.6% year-on-year; Crude oil exports reached 2.555 million tons, down 31.9% year-on-year; Apparent domestic crude oil consumption1186.83 million tons, up1-5.7% year-on-year; The dependence on crude oil imports was 4 1.9%, up 6.7 percentage points year-on-year. In June, the international average price of crude oil? Brent spot? It was $35.6/barrel, up 30.6% year-on-year. New york crude oil futures reached a maximum of $42.33/barrel, the highest price since the New York Mercantile Exchange 1983 started crude oil futures trading.
International crude oil prices continue to rise, China's demand for crude oil increases, and imports grow rapidly. What impact will it have on China's economy?
The first is the overall judgment of the current changes in international oil demand.
? One? In the short term, the relationship between international oil supply and demand is generally loose, but we should pay close attention to the growth of oil consumption in China.
In the short term, the total supply can meet the total demand, and there will be no large-scale oil supply shortage. According to the statistics in 2002, the remaining proven recoverable reserves of global oil were 6543.8+0427 billion tons, and the proven reserves increased. The annual consumption of the world's top ten oil consuming countries is 3.52 billion tons, and the annual output of the world's top ten oil producing countries is 3.59 billion tons. Supply and demand are basically balanced, with a slight surplus. However, we should pay close attention to the increase of oil demand and the rapid growth of imported oil in China. 1995, China's oil consumption was1580,000 tons, ranking third in the world. In 2002, China's oil consumption was 246 million tons, ranking second in the world. In 2003, the global crude oil trade volume was 2 billion tons, and China imported 90 million tons of crude oil, accounting for 4.5% of the world and 34% of China's total crude oil consumption. While China's oil consumption is increasing year by year, China's dependence on imported oil is also increasing. By 20 10, the oil demand in China will reach 320 million tons, and the oil import will reach 654.38+600 million tons, and the oil demand will depend on imports to a great extent. Although China is the second largest oil consumer in the world, its impact on international oil prices is less than 0. 1%. China needs to adopt an active strategy to change from a passive recipient of international prices to a positive influencer.
? Two? Global oil prices will remain high.
At present, the direct reasons for pushing the international oil price to hover at a high level are as follows:
The first is the recovery of the world economy and the increase in oil demand. The world oil forecast report from 2004 to 2005 released by the Intelligence Bureau of the US Department of Energy shows that the world oil demand will increase substantially. After the world oil demand increased by 1.8% in 2003, the increase in 2004-2005 may exceed 2%. International Energy Agency? 1EA？ It is predicted that the world oil demand will increase by 1 10,000 barrels per day in 2004, and by March 1 1 day, the demand will increase to 1.65 million barrels per day, reaching 79.9 million barrels per day.
Second, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to adopt the policy of limiting production and protecting prices. In particular, the exchange rate of the US dollar is falling, and in order to reduce losses, oil prices will continue to increase. Although the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced in early June that the crude oil output will increase by 2 million barrels in July and 500,000 barrels in August, the actual increase is limited, because the oil output of the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has actually greatly exceeded the output. As the exchange rate of the US dollar continues to weaken, OPEC countries will be more determined to raise oil prices.
Third, the proven recoverable oil reserves are insufficient. Oil is a strategic commodity related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and it is also a non-renewable resource. According to experts' analysis, it has been basically found that the world oil production will reach its peak before 20 15. After the decline in oil production, there will be a shortage of oil supply. Up to now, human beings use about 80 million barrels of oil every day, 1 year about 30 billion barrels. At present, the proven recoverable oil reserves are 1 trillion barrels, and it is estimated that there are still 1 trillion barrels of undiscovered oil reserves, which is difficult to exploit and costly. It will be more difficult to exploit new oil resources in the future.
Fourth, oil speculation has pushed up oil prices. In the absence of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand, the turmoil in the oil market is largely caused by market speculation. The exchange rate of the US dollar fell against major international currencies, and the speculation of oil futures by international hot money, including hedge funds, kept the oil price at a high level. Futures speculation behind the oil market is often the black hand to manipulate oil price fluctuations. At present, the trading volume of oil futures is about several times that of spot trading. It is estimated that in the oil futures market, the real demanders only account for 30% of the total trading volume, and the rest are arbitrageurs.
The fifth is the influence of political factors. At present, the domestic situation in the Gulf region and some oil-producing countries is turbulent, the political situation in major international oil-producing countries, including Iraq, is still turbulent, and terrorist activities have occurred one after another around the world, which makes the crude oil production of major oil-producing countries face the risk of being blocked at any time and seriously affects the stability of the international crude oil market.
According to expert analysis, from the overall and long-term point of view, the decline of oil prices will be short-lived, while the rise and climb are long-term trends. In the near future, the distorted oil price will slowly fall back after the adjustment of the market and the contest of various forces, but the space for falling back will be very limited, and it is expected to fluctuate between 28-33 US dollars per barrel.
Second, the basic situation analysis of global oil supply changes
First, the world's oil and gas resources have great potential, but they are unevenly distributed and have many opportunities. According to the analysis and forecast of authoritative organizations, the proven recoverable reserves of remaining oil and gas in the world in 2002 were142.7 billion tons and 155.78 trillion cubic meters respectively. At present, the remaining recoverable reserves of oil can be continuously supplied for at least 39 years, and natural gas can be supplied for more than 6 1 year. From the perspective of national distribution, the remaining proven recoverable reserves of oil in the whole OPEC countries are11900 million tons, accounting for 78.2% of the world, and the reserve-production ratio is as high as 82 years. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iran and Venezuela rank among the six largest oil resource countries in the world. The remaining proven recoverable reserves of oil in these six countries account for 70.2% of the world.
Second, the world oil supply and demand will be basically balanced within 20 years, but the regional imbalance will be aggravated. The main reason is that the world oil consumption center is shifting and the consumption in Asia is increasing sharply. World oil consumption 1982 was 2.8 billion tons, increased to 3.5 billion tons in 2002, and increased by 700 million tons in 20 years, with an average annual growth rate of 1.5%. Among them, the oil consumption in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific region in 2002 was 2.982 billion tons, accounting for 84.6% of the world consumption. The economies of the CIS countries were in a downturn, and the oil consumption dropped sharply, from 420 million tons in 1990 to 654.38+73 million tons in 2000, a drop of 60%. The rapid economic development of developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region and the sharp increase in oil demand have driven the oil consumption of the whole region to increase from 500 million tons in 1985 to 992 million tons in 2002, an increase of 492 million tons, accounting for 67% of the world oil consumption growth in the same period.
Since 1992, the oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region has surpassed that in Europe, becoming the second largest oil consumption region in the world, showing a tripartite confrontation with North America and Europe. In 2002, four of the seven major oil consumers were in the Asia-Pacific region, among which China ranked second, Japan third, South Korea sixth and India seventh.
Third, the competition for world oil resources will be more intense, and the hot spots for competition will be in the Middle East, Caspian Sea, West Africa and other regions. Because a lot of oil reserves have been discovered in the Caspian Sea, West Africa and other regions, the oil production is on the rise and the situation in the Middle East is relatively stable. The Caspian Sea region is close to Europe and Asia, so international oil companies have increased their investment in these two regions and intensified their exploration and development. In particular, Russia hopes to maintain its status as a big country through energy weapons such as oil and natural gas. The Caspian Sea region is one of the important energy bases of the former Soviet Union, and Russia will also speed up the development and energy cooperation in this region. It can be predicted that the Middle East and North Africa are still the main oil supply areas; The oil supply in Central Asia, Caspian Sea and West Africa will increase, and Russia, as a non-OPEC country, will play an important role in the oil market. The status of oil suppliers in Central and South America will decline.
Fourth, the world's medium and long-term oil prices will gradually rise in fluctuations. According to its oil price target and the value of US dollars in 2000, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicts that the oil price will remain at US$ 25/barrel before 20 10, and then gradually rise to US$ 30/barrel.
Third, the impact of oil price changes on China's economy.
The sharp rise in oil prices has a great impact on the economies of developed countries, because oil accounts for a large proportion in their energy consumption structure, the unit fuel consumption is high, and their economies are highly dependent on oil. After the baptism of two oil crises and the development of knowledge economy, the ability of developed countries to resist the rise of oil prices has been greatly improved. At present, the proportion of traditional industries with high energy consumption in the economic structure of developed countries has declined, the oil consumption per unit GDP has been greatly reduced, and the ability to prevent oil crisis has been greatly improved. However, underdeveloped countries are in the period of industrialization, with slow development of energy conservation and alternative energy sources, high oil consumption per unit GDP, high dependence on efficient and high-quality oil for economic growth, weak ability to prevent oil crisis, and high oil prices have a great impact on their economies.
In the two oil crises in history, the economies of western developed countries were hit harder than those of underdeveloped countries. However, when the world oil price rose to a high price of nearly $40/barrel in 2000, the economic impact of developed countries was significantly reduced. However, some developing countries have suffered greatly: political, economic and social problems such as debt crisis, government crisis, social crisis and turmoil have broken out constantly, and the sharp rise in oil prices has accelerated the deepening of these problems. In 2000, some authoritative organizations in the world estimated that the increase in oil price of 10 USD/barrel and keeping it at this price for one year would have an impact on the economic growth rate of developing countries, which is 1.5 times of the world average and three times of that of developed countries.
China began to become a net oil importer in 1993, which is between self-sufficient countries and consuming countries. At present, China's net oil imports only account for a part of domestic oil consumption, and so far China can still be classified as a country that is basically self-sufficient. Oil price changes are similar to those in China? As an oil-producing country, it also imports a certain amount of oil. The influence of the national economy can be roughly represented by the following figure.
Judging from the consumption, export and investment of the national economy, the rise in oil price will reduce its consumption and investment, and the export will decline, thus adversely affecting the national economy. On the contrary, what if oil prices fall? But it should not be too low, because if it is too low, its oil industry will be seriously affected, thus affecting the national economy? , will be conducive to the development of the national economy.
From 1993 to 2000, experts made a comprehensive analysis of China's GDP, oil imports and price fluctuations. The analysis results show that every year when the oil price rises by 1%, the average GDP growth rate of China will decrease by 0.0 1 percentage point. From 65438 to 0999, the international oil price rose by 10.38%, which affected the GDP growth rate of China by about 0.07 percentage points. In 2000, the international oil price rose by 64%, which affected the GDP growth rate of China by 0.7 percentage points. According to the GDP of 8.8 trillion in 2000, it is equivalent to a loss of more than 60 billion yuan.
From the perspective of economic development, high oil prices are unfavorable to the development of China's national economy. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the oil price will rise by 10 USD per barrel, and the economic growth rate in Asia will drop by 0.8%. From the perspective of imports, the higher the oil price, the more oil imports and the greater the foreign exchange expenditure. China imports about $35 billion of oil every year, which is the main factor of China's foreign trade deficit. From the export point of view, the higher the oil price, the higher the production cost of downstream products, the lower the competitiveness of export products, and the export is greatly affected. From the transportation point of view, the higher the oil price, the higher the price of refined oil, the higher the transportation cost, and the higher the prices of means of production and consumer goods.
In short, the rise in oil prices is not good for China's national economy as a whole, but it has little impact at present. If the dependence on oil continues to increase, the impact will be greater and greater.