Completely different from the spot, the spot is actually a tradable commodity (commodity), and futures are mainly not commodities, but standardized tradable contracts with certain mass products such as cotton, soybeans, oil and financial assets such as stocks and bonds as the target.
Therefore, the subject matter can be commodities (such as gold, crude oil and agricultural products) or financial instruments.
Second, ups and downs.
There are many reasons that affect the rise and fall of futures, and each variety is different. The following is an example of corn.
(A) the supply and demand relationship
1, the price of corn is mainly determined by the balance of supply and demand. Generally speaking, when the supply of corn exceeds demand, the price of corn will fall, and when the supply of corn exceeds demand, the price of corn will rise. ?
In the international corn market, the United States accounts for more than 40%, China accounts for nearly 20%, and South America accounts for about 10%. The output and supply of these countries and regions have a great influence on the international market, especially the output of corn in the United States has become the most important factor affecting the international supply. ?
The United States, China, European Union, Brazil, Japan, Mexico and other countries and regions are the main corn consumers in the world. Changes in corn demand in these countries and regions have a great impact on corn prices. ?
2. Import and export of corn
Domestically, corn imports will increase the total domestic supply, corn exports will increase the total demand, and corn exports will have a certain pulling effect on China's corn prices. However, since the beginning of this year, China's corn exports have gradually decreased, and the changes in China's corn import and export policies have also had a great impact on China's corn import and export.
As far as the international market is concerned, it is necessary to focus on the corn exports of major exporting countries such as the United States, China and Argentina and the corn imports of major importing countries such as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia. ?
3. Changes in corn stocks
Corn carry-over inventory includes government (including futures exchange) and private carry-over inventory. Generally speaking, with the increase of corn stock and loose supply, the price will drop; If corn stocks decrease and supply is tight, the price will rise.
4. Livestock and poultry feeding quantity
The consumption of corn mainly comes from feed, rations and industrial processing, of which feed accounts for more than 70%. Because livestock and poultry breeding is the biggest use of corn, if the amount of livestock and poultry breeding increases, the price of corn will rise; On the contrary, it is bearish.
5. High oil price and low corn price bring opportunities for deep processing of fuel ethanol corn. 1 ton fuel ethanol requires about 3.2 tons to 3.3 tons of corn. According to national regulations, the price of ethanol gasoline is the same as that of gasoline of the same brand. After deducting the processing cost of 770 yuan/ton, ethanol gasoline has obvious cost advantage when the price of raw corn does not exceed 1308 yuan/ton.
(2) Policy, environment and cost factors
1, the influence of corn industrial policy
The production, circulation and consumption policies of corn also have a certain impact on the price of corn. For example, this year, the state attaches great importance to the issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers, and major policies such as exempting agricultural tax pilot, directly subsidizing grain farmers, expanding subsidized varieties of improved varieties, implementing the strictest land protection measures, and strengthening comprehensive agricultural development will greatly enhance farmers' enthusiasm for planting corn, so the planting area and output of corn in China will remain stable in the future.
2. The relative relationship between corn input and output price.
The input-output ratio of corn will affect the seasonality of farmers' corn planting, and then affect the planting area and yield of corn. The production cost of corn is mainly composed of seeds, fertilizers, mechanical tillage, pesticides, irrigation, threshing, grain transportation, labor, agricultural tax and (rural) overall reserve funds. The above price changes will also have a certain impact on corn prices.
3. Changes in the weather
As one of the three major agricultural products, corn is one of the main factors affecting its supply. If there is too much rain in the planting season or not enough rain in the growing season, the corn yield may be significantly reduced, which will lead to an increase in corn prices.
On the other hand, if the weather is favorable, corn will get a bumper harvest, which may lead to a decline in corn prices. Pay attention to the weather changes in the United States and China during the sowing and growth of corn from April to September every year.
4, the impact of emergencies such as bird flu.
Unexpected events such as bird flu affect the consumption of corn by poultry, and the reduction of consumption will naturally suppress the price of corn. In addition, political factors including embargo and war may also affect the production, export or import of corn.
5. Transportation costs
Due to the firm price of crude oil and the substantial increase in shipping freight, China's geographical advantages can be further exerted in the competition. As a result, the export cost of corn in the United States has greatly increased, and the export competitiveness has obviously weakened.
At present, the freight of Panamanian cargo ships from Meiwan to Japan and South Korea is 60 USD/ton, while the transportation cost from China to South Korea is only 15- 18 USD/ton. Therefore, the demand for corn in China in Asia will be greater than that in the United States, which will affect the price of corn in Dalian.
The influence of related commodity prices
The relationship between corn price and other food prices, including the relationship between corn and wheat consumption prices and the relationship between corn and soybean planting prices. The price relationship between corn and wheat can be expressed by the price ratio of wheat/corn. Both corn and wheat can be used as feed, and the consumption substitution relationship is obvious.
The price of wheat often remains at about 1 15% of the price of corn, but the proportion changes greatly. As the main producing area of soybean and corn in China, farmers generally choose the planting area of corn and soybean by comparing the planting price ratio of corn and soybean. Generally speaking, the planting price ratio of soybean and corn is about 3: 1.
In recent years, especially last year, due to the rising prices of soybeans and corn, the benefits of farmers planting soybeans are obviously higher than that of corn, so many farmers in Heilongjiang Province have reduced the planting area of corn and expanded the planting area of soybeans this year.
(D) Market factors
1, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn price will have a certain impact on Dalian corn price. From the vertical price space of CBOT's 32-year corn monthly continuous chart, it generally fluctuates widely between 370-2 10 cents, with the amplitude of 100-350 cents, and the band trend is clear.
Above 370 is a high-priced area, and below 2 10 is a low-priced area. The pressure above 370 cents is heavier, and the support of 2 10 cents is stronger.
2. The influence of market speculation.
In the corn market, especially the corn futures market, due to the differences between the long and short sides on the future price, the change of corn price can be reflected by psychological expectation, and speculative factors in the market play a role in fueling the corn price.
3, the impact of the economic cycle
Economic cycle is the basic feature of market economy, which generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression, and corn prices will fluctuate accordingly.
4. Price linkage
The connection between corn and grain is the main way of communication.
Extended data:
Characteristics of futures trading:
1, bidirectional
One of the biggest differences between futures trading and stock market is that futures can be traded in both directions, and futures can be long or short. When the price rises, you can buy low and sell high, and when the price falls, you can sell high and buy low. Going long can make money, and shorting can also make money, so there is no bear market in futures. In a bear market, the stock market will be suppressed, while the futures market will remain unchanged and opportunities will still exist. )
2, the cost is low
Futures trading countries do not levy stamp duty and other taxes, and the only cost is the transaction fee. The procedures of the three domestic exchanges are about two ten thousandths or three ten thousandths, plus the additional fees of brokers, and the unilateral handling fee is less than one thousandth of the transaction amount. Low cost is the guarantee of success.
3. Leverage
Leverage principle is the charm of futures investment. Futures market transactions do not need to pay all the funds, and domestic futures transactions only need to pay 5% margin to obtain future trading rights. Due to the use of margin, the original market has been enlarged ten times.
Assuming that the daily limit of copper price closes on a certain day (the daily limit in futures is only 3% of the settlement price of the previous trading day), the operation is correct. The return on capital is as high as 60%(3%÷5%), which is six times the daily limit of the stock market. (You can make money only if you have the opportunity)
Step 4 double the chance
Futures is a "T+0" transaction, which makes your capital use to the extreme. After grasping the trend, you can close your position at any time. (Convenient access can increase the security of investment)
5, greater than the negative market
Futures is a zero-sum market, and the futures market itself does not create profits. In a certain period of time, regardless of the transaction costs of capital entry and exit, the total amount of funds in the futures market remains unchanged, and the profits of market participants come from the losses of another trader.
The stock market has entered a bear market, the market price has shrunk dramatically, the dividends are meager, the state and enterprises absorb funds, and there is no short-selling mechanism. The total amount of funds in the stock market will show negative growth for a period of time, and the total profit is less than the loss. (Zero is always greater than a negative number)
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