Not long ago, the People's Bank of China clarified that there was no timetable for raising interest rates, and the market's concerns about raising interest rates in the near future eased. However, just two weeks later, the federal reserve system, which has the reputation as the world economic command center, announced on Wednesday (June 30) that it would raise interest rates by 0.25%, saying that the main purpose of this move was to consolidate the US economy. The sensitive topic of China's interest rate hike is once again on the page.
1999 In May, when the US stock market rose 10, US Treasury Secretary Rubin suddenly resigned, and the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates again, raising the discount rate for the first time in many years. The direct reaction of the financial market was the stock market crash, and the USD/JPY plummeted from 124 yuan to11JPY. In September, according to the similarity between the changes of American official interest rates of 65,438+0929 and 65,438+0987, the author immediately made a major prediction that the global stock market crash was coming. The fact that the global stock market fell by an average of 70% in the next three years proved the significance of the prediction at that time.
This time, the interest rate hike in the United States is the opposite of that five years ago. At that time, the United States raised interest rates to curb the huge domestic investment bubble caused by the 10 bull market, which led to the deterioration of inflation. The current interest rate hike is an extraordinary measure with high strategic significance on the basis of the "9. 1 1" attack on the United States, which led to the continuous withdrawal of a large number of foreign capital from the United States and the rebound of global stock markets after the US-Iraq war.
At the end of the US-Iraq war, the author predicted that the global economy would enter a recovery stage, and boldly predicted that the US stock market could regain the 10000 mark and create a new historical challenge of 15000. Today, US stocks rebounded from 7500 points to 10700 points, up 42%. If it is to rise further, effective financial stimulus measures are urgently needed.
Alan greenspan, the magician of the world economy and chairman of the US Federal Reserve, decided to raise interest rates. The main purpose is to stop the continuous outflow of dollars and try to attract foreign capital into the United States by taking advantage of interest margin. On the basis of the US stock market regaining the 10,000-point mark, we will push it again and recreate a virtuous circle of income and interest.
Only by correctly understanding the strategic significance of raising interest rates in the United States can we correctly view whether China will raise interest rates and its attitude once it does. The US interest rate hike undoubtedly tells the world that the global economy has entered an accelerated recovery stage from the asthma stage.
The author thinks that since China's entry into WTO is not long, China's economy is still quite independent, so it is not necessary to follow the United States to raise interest rates at present, and it is not necessary to refer too much to the changes in the United States in the next few years. There are two key means to maintain the steady and rapid development of the domestic economy. First, we should speed up the rational creation of quantitative investment and competitive environment; second, we should speed up the introduction of qualified foreign investors (QFII) to create a reasonable, legal, free and relaxed market environment for their investment in China. In this way, the benefits of global economic development can maximize China's dollar doomsday theory.
The depreciation of the dollar is the general trend. The Federal Reserve raised the interest rate to 5%, but the difference between this interest rate and the euro is not big, so it can't alleviate the market's expectation that the dollar will fall, and the dollar will continue to fall. Recently, the yen has been strong, and the dollar has been falling without much increase in the interest rate of the Bank of Japan, which shows the anxiety of investors holding dollars in the market.
In short, there is still a surplus of dollars. A huge surplus. The "doomsday" that global investors have been expecting, that is, "the United States will have a hard time with it one day", is probably coming. In other words, everyone thought it was time to sell dollars quickly, so this day really came.
This is the author's theory, which is not necessarily correct. We also observed that only a few people discussed the problem from this angle. Most economists wouldn't say that. Wang Jian is a famous person who holds this view, but the Liu Junluo I met recently is still a nobody.
Let's call this theory "the dollar doomsday theory".
Main points of dollar doomsday theory
The main points of the dollar doomsday theory are:
1。 The fiscal deficit and trade deficit of the United States, the so-called twin deficits, have accumulated to trillions of dollars; The economic structure of the United States will continue to expand twin deficits.
2。 With the expansion of twin deficits in the United States, the international circulation of dollars can not return to the United States, resulting in an international surplus of dollars. [ 1]
3。 The twin deficits and international surplus of the US dollar cannot develop indefinitely. Finally, there must be a major adjustment to stop the development of twin deficits.
However, no matter how to stop the development of twin deficits, no matter how to operate, it will cause huge economic, financial, trade and international political shocks. To this end, the dollar doomsday theory also has the following points:
4。 Because of the third point above, countries, institutions and individuals holding US dollars have an expectation that the US dollar will end, and they all know that it will be a huge impact and even a catastrophic event. So everyone has a mentality of preparing for change.
5。 Among them, the depreciation of the US dollar was in line with expectations. In other words, all countries, institutions, enterprises and individuals agree that when the end of the dollar comes, the dollar will definitely depreciate sharply.
6。 Under this consistent expectation, once people begin to feel the end is coming, they will collectively throw away their dollars. Form a real depreciation of the dollar. And the end of the dollar will really come.
This is what English calls self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, if you think China is a threat, you can deal with China and attack China. As a result, China rebelled, which led to the confrontation between the United States and China, so "China is a threat" came true. Everyone here thought that the dollar would plummet, but everyone sold it, so the dollar really plummeted.
To sum up, the main points of the dollar doomsday theory are two points: twin deficits will eventually have a reverse adjustment; The reverse adjustment will be achieved through the sharp depreciation of the US dollar.
Dollar Doomsday Theory and the Rising Price of Petroleum Precious Metals
Did the end of the dollar happen overnight? I don't think so. There may be a sudden sharp depreciation of the dollar, that is, a hard landing. But the dollar is slowly falling, and a soft landing is more likely. This process may take a year. That is, the US dollar slowly declined, and finally reached a state of balance, completing the adjustment of twin deficits.
This is how the United States and western countries operate, that is, to promote a soft landing. During the soft landing, many crises can be passed on to others. Of course, whoever plays well loses less. Even if you fish in troubled waters, you can still benefit
For example, the price of oil, precious metals and even copper has skyrocketed, and the author has long used the dollar doomsday theory to explain it. However, many economists lie to everyone that demand in China and India is soaring.
How does the dollar doomsday theory explain the skyrocketing oil price?
1。 The remaining dollars are bound to be sold at the end of the dollar. Selling dollars starts with buying other major currencies.
2。 Central banks will attack selling dollars to prevent their currencies from appreciating sharply, which will affect their exports. China, for example, is delaying the appreciation of the renminbi.
3。 The remaining dollars have to find another way out. That must first be a substance that can be quickly realized. That is, this kind of thing is a commodity similar to money.
4。 Gold is the most direct monetary commodity. So I sold dollars and bought gold. So the price of gold rose sharply. This is a feature of the end of the dollar.
5。 Futures is also a means to sell dollars. And futures commodities must be substances that can be constantly speculated. Oil, followed by copper, aluminum and zinc, became the substance absorbed by selling dollars.
The corollary of the dollar doomsday theory is that the dollar prices of these precious metals and oil will not return to their original positions. This is the difference from the oil crisis.
The theory of soaring demand is wrong and cannot explain the soaring prices of these commodities. If you believe in the theory of supply and demand, you won't believe that oil prices will double.
The price of gold will become the benchmark of dollar doomsday theory. Because the doomsday theory of the dollar is to foresee a monetary system. When the dollar ends, the dollar standard system naturally collapses, so a moderate return to the gold standard is the inference of the end of the dollar.
Liu Junluo's "second gold standard" system [2] means that the country should set up a system with oil, precious metals and metal materials as reserves to deal with the end of the dollar, which is the policy derivation of the conclusion of the end of the dollar.
Last year, the Bank of China announced that China did not sell dollars to build oil reserves. It seems that the dollar doomsday theory has not been recognized by the central bank. In my opinion, China has not established the so-called second gold standard.
But as an individual, every middle class should consider establishing its own secondary gold standard system. For enterprises, the author once wrote an article about the methods of foreign exchange settlement for import and export enterprises, which is also a similar suggestion. [3]
The End of Dollar and the Rise of China Stock Market
The dollar doomsday theory can lead to a view that China's high-end housing prices and stock markets, including A-shares, will rise sharply. This inference goes like this:
1。 When the end of the dollar comes, hot money will sell dollars to buy other things, including other currencies, oil futures, precious metals, metal materials and so on. But we can assume that the surge in these commodities is not enough to digest all the remaining dollars.
2。 Surplus capital enters China to buy China assets, and they are expected to get double income factor. First, it is the price difference between the assets being fired; The second is the spread of RMB appreciation.
In other words, I bought one or two pieces of gold in US dollars, which may be different from buying one or two pieces of gold in China by changing US dollars into RMB. Gold has finally gone up, and this income is the same in both countries. However, a year later, it will be different to sell gold in China, get RMB, and then change it into US dollars. Dollar depreciation against RMB 10%. This 10% is extra income.
3。 The entry of foreign capital into China stock market can be said to be a necessary move for US dollar capital. Due to the entry of foreign capital, the stock market surge itself is a foregone conclusion. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is more or less a foregone conclusion.
Therefore, we will definitely observe the skyrocketing stock market. Similarly, the price of high-grade real estate should also rise substantially. Now A shares have reached 1500. We can review today's inference at the peak.
This stock market may go up every day, so you can't keep up! We can roughly estimate how much foreign capital has entered the stock exchange. Why? Because we have introduced a new policy for citizens to purchase foreign exchange. This policy is that each ID card can be purchased for $20,000/year for no reason.
We use 10% ID card to buy dollars, which is 2 trillion dollars. To say the least, China doesn't have that much foreign exchange to exchange. So we assume 1%. That is,100,000 ID cards are exchanged for money. That will be $200 billion. This is more realistic. Because our reserve is 835 billion, I estimate that it will soar to 1 trillion in one year.
Foreign investors buy stocks in China through funds. If the gains from the stock market plus the gains from the exchange rate can make the capital gains 100%, it is equivalent to 100 billion dollars entering the stock market. That's 800 billion. Hong Kong stocks have exceeded 10 trillion last month. So this capacity is available. In other words, foreign investment in China is $654.38+000 billion, and there is no need to worry about not getting back the dollars.
Then foreign capital can be estimated according to the index of the broader market, with $654.38+00 billion in and $200 billion out. The market index should rise by more than 50%. From 2000 to 2500.
I want to make it clear here that I'm not commenting on the stock market, I'm just inferring from the doomsday theory of the dollar. Don't use my inference to guide your investment. If you use it, you should pay attention to the risks.
In fact, China has started to pilot the so-called QFII system, which allows foreign financial institutions to trade stocks, and the income can be remitted. UBS, Nomura Securities and Morgan Stanley have been allowed to enter the market.
One inference is that the slower the appreciation of RMB, the higher the stock market will rise. Because as long as the RMB does not reach the high level expected by foreign investors, the spread is there, and foreign investors will expect something. When the price of RMB was high, foreign capital hesitated and less came in.
What is the end of the dollar?
The scene of the end of the dollar is the skyrocketing of precious oil, the madness of the stock market, and so on. So under what circumstances did these situations gradually calm down?
The author estimates that there must be a great subversion of the status quo, that is, the status quo must have changed significantly. Refers to the United States.
Or, like Japan, there will be great inflation and then the Great Depression.
Or the United States itself suddenly tightens the deficit.
Which is more likely?