I hope the following can help you. Yong Zhiqiang of Haitong Securities believes that although the CRU index is difficult to break through the record high set in June last year at 5438+ 10, the basic factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar, China's economic growth and the economic recovery of the United States and Japan have not changed. At the same time, due to the rising cost brought by the rising iron ore price, it is still difficult to lower the international steel price. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . China's economy has promoted the prosperity of the raw material market, but it may become a brake. Nowhere can China's growing economic influence be felt more than in the international raw material market. China's huge demand for base metals and mineral nuclear fuels has brought record profits to enterprises that refine and process these raw materials. However, the popular view that China is gluttonous for raw materials now seems a bit simplistic. The China administration tried to cool the overheated economy. From the construction industry to the automobile industry, the growth rate of consumption of some raw materials has slowed down significantly or even declined. Tao Dong, chief Asia economist of Credit Suisse First Boston Bank, said that China's oil demand this year is only 2% higher than that in 2004. The demand for cement is the same as last year; The demand for aluminum has dropped by 5%. Analysts have predicted that the demand for cement in China will increase by 65,438+00-65,438+02%, while the demand for oil and aluminum will increase by 6-7%. The slowdown in demand has had an impact on prices. Although China was looking for some raw materials around the world not long ago, the slowdown in demand has also made China a net exporter of these raw materials. So far this year, Chinese mainland has consumed one-third of the world's steel production (730 million tons), and this demand is increasing at an annual rate of about 20%. However, China's own output of raw materials is growing even faster, and now it is increasing by about 30% every year. In this case, China imported about150,000 tons of steel last year, and this year's import and export are likely to be similar. The net export may be 9 million tons by 2006 and 0/30,000 tons by 2007. China is still becoming an aluminum exporter. In addition, China's cement exports have nearly tripled so far this year. Although the base of cement production in China is not large, China is 50 dollars cheaper per ton of cement. China's dependence on imported oil is also decreasing. As 70% of China's electricity depends on coal production, with the development of China's electricity, its consumption of crude oil is also decreasing. With the gradual easing of power shortage in China, the use of diesel generators, which account for about 40% of China's growing oil demand, is decreasing. This will eventually become a factor weakening the high global oil price. The scope and duration of China's declining demand for international raw materials have become a hot topic of debate. But China's demand for some raw materials seems to remain as strong as before, one of which is coal. BHP Billiton, one of the world's largest mining companies trading futures with China, attaches great importance to coal. It may change its strategy of not directly investing in China and invest in a local coal mining right in China. Copper prices also hit a new high. China consumes one-fifth of the world's copper production, mainly for new transmission cables. In the first eight months of this year, China's copper imports increased by more than 12%. There is still a strong demand for uranium for nuclear power plants. The recent weak market demand for other raw materials reflects the problem of inventory adjustment. For example, the decline in aluminum consumption is partly due to the reduction of inventory by automobile manufacturers. But for some raw materials, a new wave of demand may be forming. UBS believes that the construction industry, as the main driving force of demand for materials such as steel, aluminum and cement, seems to be accelerating again. This in turn will promote the import of related raw materials. As the financing of the construction industry no longer relies on unlimited credit as before, the China government seems less worried about the recent construction boom. The construction of supporting projects for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games will also promote the development of the construction industry in the future. Even so, Jonathan, chief Asian economist at UBS? 6? Jonathan Anderson1said that he doubted whether the rebound of the construction industry could restore the growth rate of China's raw material imports to 35-40%. He believes that the slowdown in investment in fixed assets of heavy industry and the excess capacity accumulated in the past three years will curb the growth of imports. China has invested heavily in the production facilities of basic metals and raw materials, which will gradually make China's production capacity not only meet its own needs, but also allow surplus raw materials to enter the international market. Steel is an obvious example. By the end of 2005, the production capacity of more than 260 steel mills in China will reach 390 million tons, with an annual growth rate of 23%, and the production capacity may reach 500 million tons by 2007. For aluminum, due to the lack of raw materials, 20% of the new aluminum production capacity in China is idle. Credit Suisse First Boston Bank predicts that once the supply of raw materials is sufficient, China's aluminum production may still exceed the demand growth in the next two years, even though the demand may increase by double digits. Next year, China's aluminum export may reach 1 10,000 tons, double that of 2004. Look at the time when I answer questions. 7? Sincere blessing to you? 7? On the road of life: smooth sailing, always happy.