Set a new high in two years, reaching $365,438 +0.2 1 per barrel. In February, crude oil futures contracts soared at the same time, breaking through in one fell swoop.
The price of $35 a barrel has reached. The former chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries warned that if the United States launched the Iraq war,
If Iraq sets fire to the oil field again, the international crude oil price may rise to $0/00 per barrel.
One of the reasons for the high oil price is that the increased output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is not enough to make up for Venezuela's substantial increase in exports.
Reduce the supply gap; Second, the market is worried that the war launched by the United States against Iraq will affect the Middle East.
Crude oil supply. As long as these two factors exist, oil prices may rise to $35 a barrel or even higher in February.
Once the United States uses force against Iraq, the oil price may exceed the US$ 40 199 1 set during the Gulf War.
Yuan.
The share prices of domestic oil companies have moved with the wind. 1 month 2 1 day Liaohe oilfield daily limit, once
The daily limit, Zhongyuan oil and gas and oil Daming are also close behind. 1 24, Sinopec shares made efforts, Shanghai Petrochemical.
At the daily limit, Yangzi Petrochemical also rose more than 6%.
So, how long will the international oil price rise last? Will domestic refined oil prices rise sharply?
How affected are the relevant listed companies?
Most analysts believe that the international oil price in the first quarter will continue the current price of around 30 yuan per barrel.
On the one hand, Europe and North America are currently in winter, and the demand for crude oil is large. On the other hand, due to Iraq
The problem is very uncertain, and countries are increasing their oil reserves, so the price of crude oil is short-term.
It is unlikely to fall back. Once the war breaks out, the oil price is likely to break through a barrel in 40 yuan in an instant.
Form.
However, this situation cannot last long. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to start from February 1 day, except Iraq.
10 member countries will increase the daily output of crude oil by10.5 million barrels, and the maximum daily output will increase from 23 million barrels to 2450 barrels.
But it will play a positive role in stabilizing international oil prices. In addition, the characteristics of modern warfare are
Well-prepared, the time is not long, for example, during the Gulf War, the international oil price was only quoted for a short time.
40 dollars/barrel, quickly returned to normal level, and during the Iraq-Kuwait war, China
International oil prices are also hovering between 10 USD/barrel. This is because oil-producing countries have strong coordination ability at present and can
Enough to control prices during the war. Therefore, in this sense, the international oil price should be in its fluctuation at present.
The top of the dynamic cycle.
As for the impact of the trend of international oil prices on domestic oil prices, some analysts believe that the outbreak of domestic oil prices can
According to past experience, even if the US-Iraq war breaks out, domestic oil prices will not necessarily skyrocket.
For example, during the Gulf War, the international oil price reached 40 dollars per barrel, but the domestic oil price did not react strongly.
During the Iraq-Kuwait war, domestic oil prices did not rise sharply.
This is because although oil prices have been in line with international standards, they are still under the control of the state.
Range.
Open the domestic gasoline and diesel price records in recent three years, and find that the lowest retail price of No.90 gasoline is 2.29.
Yuan, the highest is 3. 10 yuan. The biggest drop reached double digits, which was 10.7%, while the biggest increase was only 9%.
Analysts believe that this is because China has established a step-by-step regulation mechanism for gasoline and diesel prices.
The crude oil and refined oil inventories of PetroChina and Sinopec have been controlled at around100000 tons. If you drive,
When the United States and Iraq went to war in the spring, domestic gasoline and diesel prices could only be "small dance"-gradually adjusted slightly.
Therefore, in this sense, among the relevant listed companies, crude oil mining enterprises will become countries.
The most direct beneficiaries of the rise in international oil prices are PetroChina, PetroChina Daming, Liaohe Oilfield and China Petrochemical.
70% of the profits come from crude oil exploitation, and the performance in the first quarter of this year will also benefit. On the other hand, crude oil
Rising prices will make domestic refineries and petrochemical plants feel the cost pressure because the raw material is crude oil.
If this cost is not transferred, the profit margins of these refineries and petrochemical plants will be reduced.
. From this perspective, the impact on listed companies in the refining and petrochemical industry is full of uncertainty.
(Shui Mu) (Securities Times)
The war between the United States and Iraq had a far-reaching impact on oil prices.
The American invasion of Iraq is the world oil price trend chart since 1979, and it can be
It is found that several ups and downs of world oil prices in the past 25 years are directly related to Iraq.
Connection relationship. In order to seek control of the "world oil depot" in the Gulf region,
Iraq first launched the protracted "Iran-Iraq War" in September 1980, and then in August 1990,
The invasion of Kuwait triggered the "Gulf Crisis". These two large-scale wars and what is happening now. "
The crisis between the United States and Iraq has caused great fluctuations in the world oil price without exception. If the "world oil price" is regarded as
A stock, then Iraq is undoubtedly the most famous "banker".
In the next three years, the center of gravity of oil prices will move down. If the United States defeats and controls Iraq, the world oil market will
The balance of power will change fundamentally, and the interest groups of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the United States (including Iraq and Britain) may form.
) and Russia (including members of the former Soviet Union) accounted for 37%, 20% and 15% respectively. in the U.S
Under control, if the daily output of crude oil in Iraq increases by 6.5438+500,000 barrels per day, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will occupy a place in the world oil market.
The share will drop by 2 percentage points, and OPEC members may choose "price" to stabilize their oil revenue.
Fight. "(Li Chen)
Oil and petrochemical stocks move with the wind.
Shen Yin Wanguo Securities Research Institute Jerry Lee
Carefully buy oil stocks.
The trend of petrochemical stocks in European and American markets will not simply reappear in the domestic stock market.
From the analysis of the market environment, the domestic stock market is still in a balanced market after the bear market, and the overall situation is slightly weak.
; At the same time, the international oil price is higher than $30/barrel, and there is limited room for further sharp rise, because
Even if it rises above $40/barrel, according to the calendar of British and American markets, the price change rate will be 30-40%.
The analysis of historical performance shows that even if the oil price rises by 30-40% when buying oil stocks in the "high-rising period",
The yield level of oil stock index is also relatively low, and the risk is relatively high. So, at the current price of crude oil,
When the price is above $30/barrel, you should buy oil stocks carefully.
Petrochemical stocks have different influences.
PetroChina, Liaohe Oilfield and PetroChina Daming, as crude oil exploitation enterprises, will directly benefit from oil prices.
Rising, its recent share price also shows signs of early reaction. However, due to the rising price of crude oil, petrochemical production in the middle and lower reaches
Product prices will also rise, and the impact on petrochemical enterprises is mainly reflected in the prices of crude oil and petrochemical industry in the middle and lower reaches.
The price difference of products has changed.
The data shows that when the price of crude oil is high, the spread level may not be low; When the price of crude oil is low, the price difference
The level is not necessarily high.
At present, domestic petrochemical enterprises can be basically divided into three categories, one is a simple oil refining enterprise, such as Maoming.
Oil refining, petrochemical, Jinzhou petrochemical, etc. One is pure chemical enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical; also
One is comprehensive petrochemicals, that is, refining chemicals, such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical.
For pure oil refining enterprises, the key to affect their benefits is the price of crude oil and refined oil.
Poor, generally from the ex-factory price of refined oil, according to the weighted average of different oil production, MINUS crude oil.
Cost, get refining price difference. In 2002, the domestic oil refining price difference increased quarter by quarter, and it is estimated that the oil refining inventory industry in 2002
The performance will be significantly improved, especially in large refineries, such as Maolian convertible bonds, which was -0.044 in mid-2002.
Yuan/share, 0.06 yuan/share in the third quarter, and it is expected to be more than 0.20 yuan for the whole year, with an obvious upward trend. noteworthy
In June this year, 5438+ 10, due to the increase in crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices were not adjusted, and refined oil prices were raised.
The price difference has dropped significantly, which shows that the impact of rising oil prices on refining enterprises may be negative, of course, the refining industry.
It still increased by 18% year-on-year, so we can continue to be cautiously optimistic.
For enterprises in the purification industry, the key to affect their benefits is the prices of naphtha and petrochemical products in the middle and lower reaches.
Poor, naphtha, also known as chemical light oil, is the product of petroleum refining, but it is the main raw material of chemical industry. Every major
Since the second half of 2002, the price difference between petrochemical products and naphtha has obviously expanded quarter by quarter. June 5438 +2003 10,
Continue to maintain a significant growth trend, and at present we can be optimistic about the profit prospects of pure chemical business. noteworthy
It means that the main products of Qilu Petrochemical are polyethylene (HDPE, LDPE, etc. ) chemical price difference in the second quarter of 2002.
After a high degree, the company continued to decline in the third and fourth quarters. It is estimated that the company will probably lose money in 2002, but
From June 5438 to October 2003 10, the price difference between polyethylene and other products increased rapidly, and it is expected that the company will make obvious profits in 2003.
Significantly improved.
In 2002, comprehensive petrochemical enterprises mainly benefited from the rise of refining price difference, and their performance generally showed.
Substantial growth, in 2003, it is expected that the profit level will continue to increase mainly with the improvement of chemical gross profit.
Very long. In 2002, the refining output and ethylene output of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. increased significantly respectively.
A large increase in production capacity will not only increase the volume of goods, but also reduce the unit cost and increase the gross profit.
Level. Therefore, the profit prospects of comprehensive petrochemical stocks such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical can continue to be optimistic this year.
Western experience shows that rising oil prices do not necessarily lead to rising stock prices.
Shen Yin Wanguo Securities Research Institute Jerry Lee
In order to study the influence of oil price rise on oil inventory, we selected three major oil price rises in the past 20 years.
Stages: "65438+June 0990-65438+ 10", "65438+/0/0 09965438+September 2000" and the latest "65438+2002 10".
-June 5438, 2003+10 month ".
We classify the above three periods as "low rise" according to the median increase of crude oil prices.
Section "and" high rising section ",for example, rose sharply from June 1999 to September 2000.
At this stage, the median price increase of $23/barrel is divided into "low increase segments" (that is, from $65,438 +0 1 to $23.
Dollars) and "Shangsheng Gao segment" (that is, from $23 to $35).
Now analyze the crude oil price increase in these six rising stages, and the oil stock index in the British and American markets.
The table below lists the absolute rate of return and the relative rate of return. We believe that the rise in oil prices is related to
The price of oil stocks has two simple laws, that is, it is the change of crude oil price that drives the price of oil stocks.
Rate "rather than the oil price itself, in addition, in different market environments, the impact of oil prices on oil stock prices.
The ring will be different.
The change rate of crude oil price determines the oil share price.
In the above three stages of oil price rise, whether in the British market or the American market, whether it is absolute.
In terms of increase or relative increase, the "low-rising segment" corresponding to the oil stock index performed better than the corresponding one.
"Advanced ascending segment". This result shows that the main factor affecting the yield of oil stock index is "crude oil"
The rate of change of price "rather than the actual value of crude oil price. This, when comparing the absolute oil stock index.
The increase is more obvious. For example, in the two groups in the above table, the low-level rising segment is compared with the corresponding high-level rising segment.
The crude oil price of the former is twice that of the latter, which corresponds to the absolute increase of the Anglo-American oil stock index.
Similar, both are about 2 times.
When the oil price is higher than $28/barrel, the oil stock indexes in Britain and America generally appear "stagflation". compare
For example, from August of 1990 to October of 10, and from June of10 in 2002 to now, the price of crude oil has been 30 USD/barrel.
In the process of continuous rise, the oil stock index appears "stagflation" If the price of crude oil is high,
There is a staged callback and a negative rate of change in the shock, and the oil stock index will fall accordingly.
Influence of market environment
In different market environments, oil stocks outperform the broader market in different ways.
Oil prices rose sharply in the bull market, easily pushing oil stocks to outperform the general trend. Take two sets of data as an example.
The "low rising section" is the "Shangsheng Gao section" because of its high change rate.
"3 times (more than the multiple of the change rate);
In a bear market or a weakly balanced city, only when the oil price is in a "low rising segment" can it be effectively promoted.
Oil stocks outperformed the broader market. Taking 1 group and 3 groups of data as examples, the index of oil stocks corresponding to "low-rising segment" is relative.
The performance is far stronger than that of the "high-rise segment".
Only by buying oil stocks in the "low rising period" can we outperform the general trend more effectively. That is to say,
In a balanced or bear market, even if the oil price is expected to rise sharply, you should buy in the high-priced area above $30/barrel.
The yield of oil stocks is also relatively low.
Oil price and the performance of BP stock during the Gulf War
No matter from any angle, the situation that can best be compared with the current "US-Iraq crisis" is undoubtedly
/kloc-"Gulf War" 0/2 years ago.
Before and after the Gulf War, there was a bear market in Europe and America, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index in the American market,
From around 65438+370 in June/990, it fell to1991+3 10 when the Gulf War broke out in October.
The annual decline 16% is close to the current European and American stock markets and China stock markets.
The domestic securities market has also dropped from more than 1700 in June 2002 to about 1450 at present, and the decline is also there.
About 16%.
Therefore, this paper analyzes the yield of oil stock index during the period of 1990-9 1 before and after the Gulf War.
The situation has certain reference significance for China market.
In order to have certain comparability, we choose the BP stock index as the research object.
We assume that the Gulf War broke out one week, half a month and one month before 199 1 17 respectively.
Or buy BP stock index in three months or half a year and hold it until 199 1 year respectively.
1October 24th 10 or 65438+24th, that is, one week before and after the war broke out.
Studying the above table, there are two references that are more valuable: the timing of buying should be sooner rather than later. Only before the war 6
Two months ago, that is, before the end of July, 1990, you can buy oil stock indexes and get positive returns relative to the broader market.
The rate of return, as well as the index of buying oil stocks in the week before the war three months before the war, its absolute and relative rates of return.
Both are negative numbers; When intervening, the oil price level should be low rather than high.
Iraq's output growth will change the relationship between world oil supply and demand Unit: 10,000 barrels per day.
Average growth rate%
82-0 1 92-0 1
World demand1.141.46 7750 7860 8050 8250
World supply1.161.47 7600 7720 7950 8080
Yiweike output * 150 300 500 750
Estimated world oversupply * 0 160 400 580
Impact of Three Anticipations of the US-Iraq War on Oil Price Unit: USD/barrel
Situation probability oil price center of oil price operation range in the next 3-5 years
A war didn't happen 25% 18-24 2 1
B war, but the United States did not win 5% 22-28 25
C war, but the United States won 70%17-2119.
The average expectation is 17-2 1 19.8.
Average price forecast of Brent crude oil in 2002-2006: USD/barrel.
2002F 2003F 2004F 2005F 2006F
The average price range of crude oil is 24.9 20-2317-21kloc-0/6-2018-22.
Basic situation of four oil production units
Brief comment on name code
Liaohe Oilfield 0008 17 Company has a total share capital of 1 1 billion, a circulating share capital of 200 million, and an annual output of about 800,000 tons of crude oil.
The oil quality of crude oil is low, and the international reference oil price is Indonesian Duri crude oil .2001EPS.
It is 0.32 yuan, and it is expected to be 0.38 yuan in 2002, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. Due to the current oil price,
The level is much higher than that in 2002 1 quarter, and the company's performance this year 1 quarter can be expected.
There is still a considerable increase year-on-year.
Zhongyuan Oil and Gas Company 00956 has a total share capital of 8160,000, a circulating share capital of 204 million, and an annual output of about 600,000 tons of crude oil.
The crude oil produced is of high oil quality, and the international reference oil price is Indonesian Minas crude oil .2001year.
EPS is 0.624 yuan, which is expected to be basically the same in 2002 as the previous year. The company expects 1 this year.
The quarterly performance increased significantly year-on-year, and the annual performance decreased year-on-year.
Petroleum Daming 000406 Company has a total share capital of 364 million yuan and 266 million shares in circulation, with an annual output of about 400,000 tons of crude oil.
The oil quality of crude oil is moderate, and the international participating oil price is Indonesian Sinta or Minas crude oil.
The EPS of 200 1 year is 0.55 yuan (after diluting the issued shares), and it is estimated that 2002 will be basically the same as last year.
Flat or slightly lower. 1 The annual judgment is as above.
China Petrochemical Company 600028 has a total share capital of 86.7 billion yuan, 2.8 billion A shares in circulation and an annual output of 38 million tons of crude oil.
It has crude oil processing capacity1.300 million tons/year. The overall quality of crude oil is medium, with international reference.
Oil price is Indonesian Thaksin crude oil. The performance in 2002 is expected to be 0. 165 yuan/share. In 2003,
It is expected to benefit from the increase in chemical gross profit, and its performance will increase by about 10% year-on-year.
The Performance of Anglo-American Oil Stock Index in the Period of Oil Price Rising in Recent 20 Years
During the group period, the crude oil price, the oil price and the UK market index rose by%, and the US market index rose by%.
Oil stock index oil stock index oil stock index oil stock index oil stock index oil stock index
Absolute numbers are relative to absolute numbers.
1 low 90.6-90.8 15 to 28 81-6.9 8.315.2-7.5.
1 Height 90.8-90.9 28 to 4 1 46-9.7-8.7 1-5
2 low 99.1-99.1012310 4.8 25.418.6-4.4126.7.
2 Height 00. 1-00.9 23 to 35 555.811.26.5562.5
3 low 02. 1-02.5 20 to 26 30-0.6 7.9 8.3-6.2 12.5
3 Gao 02.5-03. 1 26 to 32 23-27-29-2-16-17-1
Note: The above six time periods are the main stages of oil price increase in recent 20 years, of which the time stage is 1.
And 2 were during the Gulf War; Crude oil price refers to Brent crude oil price, and oil price increase refers to the corresponding time period.
The increase of
Buy some, sell one week after the war, and sell one week before the war.
Oil stock index Oil stock index refers to oil price, and oil stock index refers to oil price.
Quantity absolute quantity relative quantity change percentage change quantity absolute quantity relative quantity change percentage change
Output% output% output% output%
One week before the war -4.5 -3.5-1 -22
Half a month before the war-9.2-2-7-23-4.9-3.8-1.1-1.3
Before the war 1 month -7 -3 -4 -25 -2.7 0 -2.7 -4.7
3 months before the war-8.5-8.50-46-3.9-51.2-27
6 months before the war-12.12.6-1518-6.7 7.6-14.3 52
Note: The above table assumes that BP stock index 199 1 1 7 was bought at different time points before the Gulf War broke out.
Number, and the index of selling oil stocks before and after the war, the corresponding index yield, and package.
Including dividends on oil stocks.