Because gold has both commodity, monetary and financial attributes, and it is also a symbol of assets, the price of gold is not only affected by the relationship between supply and demand of commodities, but also very sensitive to economic and political changes. The oil crisis and financial crisis will lead to a sharp rise and fall in the price of gold. In addition, investment demand also has a significant impact on the change of gold price.
The relationship between supply and demand in the international gold market determines the long-term price trend.
Historically, before 1970s, the international gold price was basically stable with little fluctuation. The violent fluctuation of international gold only happened after 1970s. For example, in 1900, the United States implemented the gold standard, which was $20.67 an ounce at that time, and the gold standard remained until the Great Depression. 1934, Roosevelt raised the price of gold to $35 an ounce. The Bretton Woods system established by 1944 is actually a "dollar standard of convertible gold". Because this monetary system can bring some positive effects to post-war economic reconstruction, the price of gold has remained at $35 until 1970.
In the past 30 years, the price of gold has fluctuated drastically, with the lowest price of gold being 253.8 USD/oz (1July 20th, 999) and the highest price being 850 USD/oz (198065438+1October 8th). The lowest price 1979 is the beginning of 1980, which is the most violent stage of gold price fluctuation. The price of1979165438+1October 26th (according to NYMEX futures price) is USD 390/oz. In less than two months, the price of gold rose from198065438+1October 28th to 850 USD/oz, which has been 30 years. Then, in a year and a half, the price dropped below $400. In the next two decades, the price was basically below $400, especially between $300 and $200. The price below $300 lasted for four years, from 1998 to 1 to March 2002. From the end of March, 2002, the price of gold rose to more than 300 dollars, and returned to 400 dollars in June, 5438+February, 2003. The price in June 5438+February 2005 exceeded 500 USD/oz, and in April 2006 it exceeded 600 USD/oz.
The reason why the price of gold fluctuated greatly was the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. 1973, the Nixon administration announced that it no longer promised that the US dollar could be exchanged for gold, and the price of gold was completely decoupled from the US dollar and began to float freely. Since then, the fluctuation of gold price reflects the balanced influence of gold currency and commodity attributes to the greatest extent.
Because of its international reserve function, gold is widely used as an asset with long-term reserve value in the reserves of public and private assets. Among them, the official reserves of gold account for a considerable proportion. At present, about 6.5438+0.5 million tons of gold have been mined in the world, with about 40,000 tons of central bank reserves and more than 30,000 tons of personal reserves. Therefore, the change of international official gold reserve will directly affect the change of international gold price. In 1970s, after the floating exchange rate system entered the historical stage, the monetary function of gold was weakened and its function as a reserve asset was strengthened. The increase of official gold reserves in various countries directly led to the sharp rise of international gold prices after the 1970s.
In the 1980s and 1990s, central banks began to reconsider the role of gold in foreign exchange reserves. With the improvement of the independence and marketization of the central bank, it puts more emphasis on the return of reserve asset portfolio. In this context, the status of gold without any interest income (except for participating in the lending market to get a little income) has declined. Some central banks decided to reduce their gold reserves. The gold reserves of 1999 decreased by 10% compared with 1980. It was precisely because the big countries sold gold that the price of gold was in a downturn.
In recent years, because the major western countries have reached an agreement on the sale of gold-the Washington Agreement (CBGA 1), it is stipulated that CBGA member countries should not sell more than 400 tons of gold every year, which sets an upper limit for the total amount of gold put on the market. At the same time, some countries, especially Asian countries, are adjusting their foreign exchange reserves to increase the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves.
Other influencing factors
(1) exchange rates of major currencies in the world
The exchange rate of US dollar is one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price.
Since the gold market price is priced in US dollars, the appreciation of the US dollar will push the price of gold down, while the depreciation of the US dollar will push the price of gold up. The strength of the dollar will have a very significant impact on the price of gold. However, in some special periods, especially when the trend of gold is very strong or weak, the price of gold will also get rid of the influence of the dollar and go out of its own trend.
A strong dollar generally means that the domestic economic situation in the United States is good, domestic stocks and bonds in the United States will be sought after by investors, and the function of gold as a means of value storage will be weakened; However, the decline of the dollar exchange rate is often related to inflation and the stock market downturn. The value-preserving function of gold is once again reflected. When the dollar depreciates and inflation intensifies, it often stimulates the preservation of gold and the increase of speculative demand. In August of 197 1 and February of 1973, the US government announced the depreciation of the US dollar twice. Influenced by the sharp drop in the exchange rate of the US dollar and inflation, the price of gold rose to the highest level in history at the beginning of 1980, exceeding $800 per ounce.
Looking back on the history of the past 20 years, if the dollar strengthens against other western currencies, the price of gold in the international market will fall. If the dollar depreciates slightly, the price of gold will rise gradually. There is an 80% inverse correlation between gold price and dollar trend in the past decade.
(2) the relationship between oil supply and demand
Since the prices of the world's major oil spot and futures markets are denominated in US dollars,
On the one hand, the fluctuation of oil price reflects the relationship between world oil supply and demand, on the other hand, it also reflects the change of US dollar exchange rate and the change of world inflation rate. Oil price and gold price indirectly influence each other.
By comparing the trend of international crude oil price and gold price, we can find that there is a positive correlation between international gold price and crude oil futures price in more time.
(3) International political turmoil and war
Major international political and war events will affect the price of gold. The government spends a lot of money on war or maintaining the stable growth of domestic economy, political turmoil and a large number of investors turning to gold investment, etc., which will expand the demand for gold and stimulate the price of gold to rise. For example, World War II, Vietnam War, 1976 coup in Thailand and 1986 Iran-contra incident all caused the price of gold to rise to varying degrees. Another example is the "9. 1 1" incident of 200 1, which caused the price of gold to soar to the highest price of $300 that year.
(4) Other factors
In addition to the above factors that affect the price of gold, the intervention activities of international financial organizations and the policies and regulations of central financial institutions in China and the region will also have a significant impact on the trend of world gold prices.
Because the factors affecting the price of gold are very complicated, it is suggested that individuals should be very cautious when they set foot in gold trading.