There are five main points in the news:
First, the Federal Reserve and the top ten banks set up a $70 billion stabilization fund to save the market.
/kloc-in September, 2004, a $70 billion stabilization fund was established in conjunction with the top ten banks in the United States to provide financial guarantees for financial institutions with bankruptcy risks and ensure market liquidity.
The top ten banking giants are Bank of America, Barclays Bank, Citigroup, Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG.
Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and new york Federal Reserve Chairman Somir Parik presided over a three-day emergency meeting to discuss how to deal with the turmoil in the US financial market. The launch of the $70 billion stabilization fund has led the market to speculate that the Fed is likely to take further measures, including lowering interest rates, to prevent the subprime mortgage crisis from worsening.
Before the rescue measures were introduced, Barclays Bank and Bank of America just announced that they would give up the acquisition of Lehman Brothers, whose share price plummeted 77% in just one week last week and was on the verge of bankruptcy. In addition, Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch, a famous Wall Street investment bank, for $50 billion.
Secondly, Ge Lao said that the once-in-a-century financial crisis in the United States would induce global turmoil.
Alan greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board of Directors, said on 14 that the United States was caught in a once-in-a-century financial crisis; The possibility that this crisis will trigger a recession is increasing.
In an interview with NBC, Greenspan said that this is the worst financial crisis he has ever seen in his career, and it may last for a long time and continue to affect the real estate prices in the United States. This crisis will continue to be a "corrosive" force until American real estate prices stabilize; This crisis will also trigger a series of global economic turmoil.
When asked whether the probability of avoiding recession in the United States can exceed 50%, Greenspan replied that he thought the probability was less than 50%. He believes that the once-in-a-century financial crisis is causing a heavy blow to the real economy. He also predicted that more large financial institutions would collapse in this crisis. Whether it is good or bad depends on how the authorities handle it, but he doesn't think the government needs to save all institutions.
Third, in the evening of September 14, Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch, the third largest investment bank in the United States with a history of 94 years, for about $44 billion.
According to the agreement, Bank of America will buy Merrill Lynch at a price of $29 per share, which is 70% higher than Merrill Lynch's closing price on Friday, but only 30% of Merrill Lynch's share price peak.
According to sources, Merrill Lynch was forced to sell under the pressure of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States because the Federal Reserve was worried that Merrill Lynch would become another victim of the subprime mortgage crisis after Lehman Brothers. Before Bank of America, Merrill Lynch had contacted Morgan Stanley. However, because Morgan Stanley needed time to evaluate Merrill Lynch, and Merrill Lynch hoped to reach an agreement as soon as possible, the negotiations between the two sides ended without results.
Fourth, AIG asked the Federal Reserve to provide a $40 billion bridging loan to solve the downgrade crisis.
September 15 Washington Telecom American International Group (AIG), the largest insurance company in the United States, is applying for a short-term loan of $40 billion from the Federal Reserve to avoid a downgrade. Standard & Poor's, a credit rating agency, said last week that AIG might downgrade its credit rating by one to three levels due to financial difficulties in the short term. Downgrading means that AIG's financing costs will increase and it needs additional financing collateral, which will force it to raise more funds. A credit downgrade will allow counterparties to get their money back. If counterparties get their money back, American International Group (AIG) may only survive for 48 to 72 hours.
AIG, the largest insurance company in the United States, will announce its business restructuring plan on June 5438+05, which may include a series of traditional profitable businesses such as selling aircraft leasing. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, AIG has been dragged down by huge losses in credit default swaps and other businesses. The accumulated losses of AIG's credit default swap business have reached $25 billion, and the losses of other businesses have also reached $654.38+05 billion. Last week, AIG's share price plummeted by 45%, and on 12, its share price fell by 30%.
Finally, Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy application showed that the debt was $61300 million.
September 15 new york Telecom, Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH) filed for bankruptcy on Monday morning, showing that its current debt exceeds 600 billion US dollars. At present, the bank's total liabilities are 61300 million dollars, while its total assets are 639 billion dollars.
The application submitted by the bank to the Federal Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of new york shows that it has more than 654.38 million+creditors, the largest of which are Citigroup (C) and Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), who is the contract trustee of Lehman's preferential bonds of about $ 138 billion. Bank of new york is also listed as the second and third largest creditor, with the claim for priority debt of $654.38+0.2 billion and the first-class subordinated debt of $5 billion.
Bankruptcy documents also show that AXA, ClearBridge Advisors and FMR, the parent company of Fidelity Investment, are the three major shareholders of Lehman Brothers.
Specific to the main European and American trading varieties we are concerned about:
First, the US crude oil futures price fell to the lowest point in seven months.
Lehman Brothers faced bankruptcy, and Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill Lynch &; The news of Co Inc) has raised concerns about the chaos in the financial industry. Beijing NYMEX September 6 19:36, and the price of light crude oil futures 5438+00 in June fell by 7% to 94. 13, the lowest level since February 14.
Gerard Burg, a commodity analyst at National Australian Bank, said that the decline has narrowed, because a large number of equipment in the Gulf of Mexico are still shut down, refineries are still facing threats, and the market is waiting for more news about losses before making the next move.
He said that the market will also pay attention to Lehman Brothers' problems, because it may lead to bleak economic prospects and weak energy consumption.
Ike 13 entered the Houston Energy Center, causing a quarter of the production of oil and fuel oil (information, market) in the United States to be interrupted and a large area of power failure. On June 5438+04, the oil company went to offshore oil platforms and coastal refineries to check the losses.
Emergency officials and oil reports show that the hurricane has little or no serious damage to infrastructure, which indicates that production is expected to resume in the next few days. But the company warned that there may be supply problems in the near future.
On June 5th, 438+04, the US government said that after the hurricane, it lent 309,000 barrels of strategic crude oil to two refineries, ConocoPhillips and plessy De Petroleum.
Chevron Corp said in a statement that it and other companies may not maintain normal crude oil supply in the next few days. Shell Oil Company said that its joint venture refinery with a daily output of 332,000 barrels in Deer Park, Texas, was damaged by the hurricane and needed to be overhauled.
In addition, after a two-day gun battle with the country's security forces, Nigeria's most important armed group announced the start of an "oil war" in the Niger Delta on June 5438+04.
Second, the July low of US stocks is hard to protect.
Since the beginning of September, the three major stock indexes in the United States have shown a very obvious trend of falling back when encountering obstacles, the fluctuation range of stock indexes has increased, and the rebound channel that began in mid-July has also been destroyed, thus ending this rebound. Although US stocks stabilized and rebounded in the second half of last week, the big Yinxian line on Tuesday was extremely lethal, and the downward resistance of the medium-term moving average was quite clear. In addition, the news was empty on Monday, and US stocks opened sharply lower, making it more likely to fall to the July low.
Peter Dixon, an analyst at Commerzban, pointed out that this may lead banks to "hoard liquidity" when the US economy is already very fragile. Some people say that it is darkest before dawn, but investors don't know when it will come.
Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist of Merrill Lynch, pointed out that it is too early to say that the market has bottomed out. He said, "Although many people think that last weekend's event is a signal that the global financial crisis has bottomed out, we still believe that the global financial market will undergo major integration in a period of time."
Third, in terms of precious metals, the safe-haven and value-preserving properties of gold are favored.
The rebound of precious metals in early trading on Monday was mainly affected by factors such as the sharp fall of the US dollar exchange rate and short covering. The New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures price for February delivery 12 stopped falling and rebounded. An ounce rose by 19 USD from the previous trading day to close at 764.50 USD, with an increase of 2.5%. On June 5438+02, when the crude oil price was relatively stable, the sharp drop of the US dollar exchange rate became the main driving force to stimulate the gold price to strengthen. According to the latest data released by the US Department of Commerce on the same day, retail sales unexpectedly fell for the second consecutive month in August, with a drop of 0.3%. Affected by this, the exchange rate of the US dollar fell sharply after rising continuously. By the close of the gold futures market, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro had dropped sharply from around 1.40 in the late session to 1.4 1.85, the biggest drop in the past five months, which re-stimulated the market's preference for the safe-haven property of gold. This week, it is temporarily between 756.00 and 808.00. It needs to break through the resistance of 808 before the trend can stabilize. Look up at the resistance of 8 19. As for silver, following the rebound of commodity currencies across the board, it is estimated that the US dollar pressure funds will re-enter precious metals, temporarily fluctuating between 10.60 and 1 1.50 in the short term, and it is expected to further drop to 10.40/00, with an important resistance of1/kloc-0. Investors should pay attention to the trend of US dollar exchange rate, international oil price and major international political and economic events, which will affect the trend of gold. The market is changing rapidly, so it is advisable to follow suit. Geopolitical factors will also bring instability to the price of gold. The market will rise and fall rapidly in line with the news, and precious metals will fluctuate greatly. Don't invest blindly, it may cause great losses. Stop loss and profit should be set.