The core data of this paper: the cumulative quota trading volume of carbon markets in pilot provinces and cities, the trading price of carbon emissions in China, the trading price of carbon markets in the European Union, and the trading price of regional greenhouse gas reduction action (RGGI) in the United States.
The transaction price of national carbon emission trading rose by 6.73% on the first day.
20 1 1, seven provinces and cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei and Shenzhen were selected as pilot areas for carbon emissions trading; June 20 13, seven local pilot carbon markets began to go online. 20 16, Sichuan and Fujian started the pilot of carbon emission trading system; 20 17 national carbon emission trading market construction plan (power generation industry), national carbon emission trading management measures in 2020 (for trial implementation) (draft for comments), national carbon emission registration trading settlement management measures (draft for comments) and 20021carbon emission registration management rules (for trial implementation).
2021July 16, the national carbon emission rights market was launched, and the local pilot market coexisted with the national carbon market. Before the establishment of the national carbon emission trading institution, the trading center of the national carbon emission trading market was located in Shanghai and the carbon quota registration system was located in Wuhan. Enterprises registered accounts in Hubei and traded in Shanghai, which jointly assumed the pillar role of the national carbon trading system. The power generation industry became the first industry to be included in the national carbon market, with more than 2,000 key emission units, and the carbon emissions of these enterprises exceeded 4 billion tons of carbon dioxide.
On July 5th, 20021KLOC-0, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the Announcement on Matters Related to National Carbon Emission Trading (Shanghai Huanjiao [2021] No.34), and the trading methods of national carbon trading adopted agreement transfer, one-way bidding or other methods that met the requirements.
As of June, 20021year, the cumulative quota trading volume of carbon market in pilot provinces and cities was 480 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, and the turnover was about11400 million yuan. On July 6th, 20021year, the trading volume of carbon emission quota (CEA) in the national carbon market was 4 103953 tons (equivalent to over 465438+ 10,000 tons), and the turnover was 2 10230053.25 yuan (equivalent to over 265438+ 10,000 yuan).
There is still room for the national carbon market price to rise.
In 2020, the epidemic will have a negative effect on the carbon market. However, due to the gradual tightening of carbon quotas in various carbon markets and the higher voluntary emission reduction contribution targets set by countries, "carbon reduction" and "carbon neutrality" are in a higher strategic position, and carbon prices are gradually rising.
20 19-2020, due to the tightening of EU emissions trading system rules and the expectation of reducing carbon free quota, the carbon price of ETS will double from an average of 25 euros per ton to about 50 euros per ton in early May of 20021year.
From 2020 to 20021year, the price of RGGI carbon market in the United States showed an upward trend. The initial quota allocation of RGGI carbon market is mainly based on auction, which is held once a quarter. In the second quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the average auction price of RGGI in the United States was $7.97, up 4.9% from the previous month, and the total turnover was 22.99 million tons.
Theoretically, when the carbon quota price is higher than the carbon price of the marginal cost of emission reduction, the carbon emission trading mechanism can effectively play a role in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction of enterprises.
At present, the national carbon market adopts a relative total control mechanism: based on the total power generation of enterprises included in key emission units, the quotas of each enterprise are calculated. Considering that the national carbon emission trading will not add too much cost burden to enterprises in the initial stage, the current carbon emission quota depends on the total power generation.
Judging from the latest trading prices in the carbon trading pilot markets around the country, the trading price is in the range of 9-5 1 yuan/ton. Combined with the closing price of the national unified carbon trading market of 5 1.23 yuan/ton, with the gradual tightening of quotas, there is room for the national carbon market price to rise.
According to the 2020 China Carbon Price Survey jointly issued by China Carbon Forum, ICF International Consulting Company and Beijing Zhongchuang Carbon Investment Co., Ltd., the initial price of carbon emission trading in China is about 49 yuan/ton, which is expected to reach 93 yuan/ton in 2030 and exceed 167 yuan/ton in the middle of this century.
—— The above data refer to Foresight Industry Research Institute's Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China Forestry Carbon Sequestration Industry.