For example, preparing meat for the New Year, in addition to filling sausages, must enter the late twelfth lunar month in previous years. Generally, after the 23rd of the twelfth lunar month, rural parties begin to be in full swing, preparing to cut meat and roast nuts for the New Year. Just entering the twelfth lunar month this year, people who "robbed" the freshly slaughtered cattle, sheep and pork appeared at rural gatherings, many of which were specially purchased from the city.
The rising trend of pork prices before the Spring Festival is basically the same as that predicted in an article written by an Xi a few days ago. I once boldly predicted that the price of pork would be polarized. On the one hand, the buyers of frozen pork will decrease, on the other hand, the newly slaughtered pork in rural areas will be sought after or even snapped up. It is not excluded that the price of fresh pork belly will continue to rise, and the price of pork in Jiaodong may reach 35 yuan/kg.
To this end, I also specially inserted a voting session to investigate readers' expectations of the rise and fall of pork prices, and the results were very interesting. The voting in the figure below begins at 1 0: 28 am on October 0 1 1. The question is, "Do you think pork prices will go up or down after the Spring Festival?" There were 4,383 people who voted, among them, 3 1% felt that prices continued to rise, 19% felt that prices were stable in 30 yuan, and 49% felt that prices were falling. Among them, 36% are confident that pork can return to 20 yuan/Jin before the Spring Festival!
Unexpectedly, just two days later, with the impact of the epidemic rebound, many rural markets were closed again, which indirectly reminded other regions that rural markets may be closed at any time. In addition, although there are a lot of frozen pork in supermarkets and cities, consumers are always worried that there is something wrong with the frozen pork on the shelves, so they can only rush to the rural market. There has been a scene in which both urban and rural people snap up the newly slaughtered cattle, sheep and pork in the rural market, and many consumers' views have changed instantly.
The voting in the figure below began at 3: 00 a.m. 13 1 month. The question is "Can we eat cheap pork during the Spring Festival?" There were 5 17 people who voted, among which 82% directly expected that the pork price would run at a high price of 30 yuan/kg and above, and 66% thought it would break through 35 yuan/kg! Only 12% consumers are confident that the price of pork will return to below 20 yuan/kg.
Not to mention others, even Xi's family couldn't help making preparations in advance. The day before yesterday, my mung bean dad heard that there were cattle killers in his hometown, so he quickly asked someone to go back to his hometown and order 10 kg of beef. 50 yuan cost 500 yuan 10 kg of beef! I cut a few Jin of fresh pork for cooking, twisted a few Jin of pork belly to prepare a pack of jiaozi wonton, and bought some ribs. It was gone when I was so young, and I regretted it for a long time after I came back.
Like our family's reserves can only be considered as the level of ordinary consumers, then pork can't stand the Spring Festival at all. As far as I know, many people in the city go to the countryside to buy meat, and they can buy more than that. Things are scarce, so since everyone is rushing to buy, it is difficult to raise prices.
Then, how is the sky-high price of pork caused, and is it possible to return to the era of ten yuan a catty?
My personal opinion is that the sky-high price of pork may continue to run at a high level until September 20021,and it is difficult to stabilize the price of newly slaughtered pork below 20 yuan. What is the trend after September? It also depends on whether the experts' expectations for the pig industry are in place, that is, whether the pig production capacity in China can recover or exceed the level of the same period of 20 17 years before September 20265438. (Note: In 2020, China's pig production capacity will only recover to 90% of the same period of 20 17).
Let's make another bold prediction. From the analysis of the current situation, even if the pig production capacity is restored in the second half of 20021and the worldwide epidemic situation is lifted, it is basically impossible for the pork price to return to the level of 10 yuan per catty without special factors such as African swine fever. Of course, it is still possible to return to 20 yuan/Jin in a short time in the big cycle of pig price fluctuation in the future. I gave this prediction for three reasons:
First, the era of raising pigs by the whole people in rural areas is gone forever. In the past, pork prices were truly free to adjust in the market. What is "home"? There is a pig in the room that calls home. Therefore, it is natural for farmers to raise pigs in previous years. Our houses in Jiaodong are mainly quadrangles and three courtyards. The pigsty in the courtyard is equivalent to the standard when building a house, and it must be available.
With so many farmers and households raising pigs, when pigs are full and have no disease or disaster, pork may be so cheap that no one wants it. I remember eating "patriotic" pork when I was a child, and I still remember that the price was 70 cents/kg. After my mother bought it, she boiled it into lard and oil residue, so that she could stay healthy and eat it for a few more days.
Hundreds of millions of farmers raise pigs, and it is impossible to control prices. If a few farmers don't raise them, it will not affect the overall situation. On the contrary, based on people's habit of following the herd, when pork is expensive, it may flock to raise more, and when pork is cheap, it may raise less, thus causing large fluctuations in pork prices.
Now the rural environment is improving. Farmers are forbidden to raise pigs in most areas, and the disorderly competition mechanism of raising pigs by hundreds of millions of people at the same time has been lost. The price of pork is naturally easier to control.
Second, real estate and other capital predators have entered the market, and large pig farms with integrated breeding and slaughtering have blossomed everywhere. In the future, the fishery industry will no longer be a sea of people, but a delicate balance model of monopoly by big capital or default market division, and the price will be more easily manipulated by a few people.
Everyone should understand this. For example, if 65438+ 10,000 pigs are fed by 65438+ 10,000 farmers, when the pigs grow up, they can only be sold in the market. Even if you lose money, the old farmer has to admit it. I've never heard of finding a place to freeze it first and then sell it when it's expensive. But if these 654.38 million pigs are raised by one or two enterprises, do you think they will sell them at a loss and put them on the market? Can they store and freeze and control the market?
Corn 1.5/ kg, soybean meal, feed, etc. Are also growing like crazy. In addition, the epidemic affected the import of foreign grain, and the cost of breeding remained high. It's naive to take such a big risk if you want to make pig enterprises run by big capital lose money and make money.
Third, the listing of live pig futures has become a sharp weapon to stop the sharp decline of pork. Both pig-raising enterprises and slaughter enterprises can balance the long-term price trend by controlling the pig futures market, sell or buy, and ensure that the periodic price of pigs fluctuates slightly. Futures is a lever to adjust the spot price. After the introduction of live pig futures, under normal circumstances, the periodic fluctuation range will tend to be stable, unless there is an industrial emergency, there may be opportunities for large fluctuations.
In short, with these three factors at the bottom, it is equivalent to completely blocking the space for pork prices to fall. If you want to return to the era of 10 yuan/kg, the probability is almost zero.