1, the characteristics of the recession stage: stagnant economic growth, overcapacity and falling commodity prices push down the inflation rate; Weak corporate profits lead to a sharp decline in the yield curve; Bonds are the best choice. The strong sectors in the stock market are medicine, information technology and consumption, while the weak sectors are finance and raw materials.
2. Recovery stage: the palliative policy played a role, economic growth began to accelerate, and inflation continued to decline, because the vacant capacity was not exhausted, and the cyclical capacity expansion became strong; Corporate profits have risen sharply and the central bank has maintained a tolerant policy. Stocks are the best choice. The strong sectors in the stock market are finance, telecommunications and consumption, while the weak sectors are medicine, information and public utilities.
3. Overheating stage: the enterprise's capacity growth slows down, and it begins to face capacity constraints, and inflation rises; The central bank raised interest rates in order to bring the economy back to the track of sustainable growth. At this time, the potential IQ of economic growth is stable, and commodity futures are the best choice. The strong sectors in the stock market are energy, raw materials and agriculture, while the weak sectors are consumption, information and finance.
4. Stagflation stage: economic growth began to decline, but inflation continued to rise, and enterprises raised product prices in order to maintain profitability, leading to a spiral rise in prices; Corporate profits have deteriorated and stocks have performed poorly, so cash is the best choice. The strong sectors in the stock market are telecommunications, consumption and industry, while the weak sectors are finance, energy and public utilities.