On February 22nd, the third trading day of A-share Year of the Ox, the three major indexes fell unilaterally, and the Growth Enterprise Market plunged by nearly 4.5%. The turnover of the two cities continued to expand, with a total turnover of 1.29 trillion yuan. The industry sector fell more and rose less. White horse stocks such as liquor, household appliances and medicine plummeted, Maotai plummeted by 7%, Wuliangye plummeted by 9. 1%, and Shanxi Liquor fell by a limit. The collapse of Maotai led to a sharp drop in the volume of "various hairs". The top 20 stocks in the two cities, except for colored stocks, basically plunged across the board. Market turnover fell.
Although the three major indexes plummeted and the market differentiation was obvious, individual stocks rose more and fell less, and more than two-thirds rose, and the profit-making effect was still strong. Before the holiday, the stock market plummeted, and after the holiday, the bull market fell. Investors who chase up and down are really suffering heavy losses. Maotai does not fall, A shares die for life; When Maotai fell, A shares died. This is a true portrayal of the current A-share style.
With the heavy volume of Maotai plummeting, "all kinds of hair" also plummeted with the heavy volume, and some white horse stocks have fallen below the 60-day moving average. If the subsequent counter-pumping fails to recover lost ground, it can basically be judged that the group market has collapsed. The collapse of the group did not lead to the collapse of other small and medium-sized market capitalization tickets, and the funds switched between high and low, and the funds flowing out of the group returned to small and medium-sized blue chips.
For the group collapse, if it is a high-level intervention and does not have a cost advantage, it is recommended to leave directly on rallies when there is profit; For those who have made a profit of more than 50%, they can cash out appropriately, and then intervene after the group adjusts and stabilizes. So, we need to understand this. Don't think that the group will be cleared immediately. For the core companies with high-quality tracks, the long-term upward trend remains unchanged, but it is inevitable to adjust too fast in the short term.
Entering the climax along the cycle, the market has peaked? Continue to lay out these two main lines.
Contrary to the disintegration of the group, the pro-cyclical plate dominated by nonferrous metals and chemicals has set off a wave of daily limit, which can be said to be the continuation of the capital group. Driven by the strength of non-ferrous metals, the three traditional cyclical industries such as coal and steel are also strong. Although individual stocks are not as good as colored ones, the effect of making money is still very high.
The super factors that caused this round of colored daily limit are: LME copper futures hit an 8-year high at the weekend, and CITIC raised its copper price target price to $654.38 +0.2 million, which was the direct fuse.
The core logic is: the four factors push up the color and represent the continuous strength along the cycle.
First, the number of newly diagnosed overseas epidemics has declined for seven consecutive weeks, and the global economic recovery is stronger than expected after the arrival of the inflection point of the epidemic;
Second, the Biden administration's 1.9 trillion economic stimulus plan boosted commodity demand expectations;
Third, the continued weakness of the US dollar superimposed inflation expectations, supporting higher commodity prices;
Fourth, affected by the epidemic, most overseas mining enterprises stopped production, and the supply was insufficient, the demand increased, and the supply contradiction was the fundamental factor for the strength of commodity prices.
Although today's pro-cyclical market has reached a climax, the short-term high point has come, and subsequent differentiation is inevitable, but the market is far from peaking, at least there is no sign of the end of the market at present. Under the background of global inflation expectation, economic recovery and global carbon neutrality, and the rapid development of clean energy, mainly photovoltaic, wind power and new energy vehicles, the long-term upward trend of industrial and energy metal prices, mainly copper, aluminum, cobalt, lithium, nickel and rare earth, has been established.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the plate along the Yangtze River will be divided in the later period, and the targets with mining advantages will be sought after by funds. In addition, the price increase of chemicals and other materials is expected to run through the whole year.
Fiona Fang in the market.
After the A-share festival, it ushered in an unusual "good start", showing a downward bull market, reflecting institutional investors' concerns about cashing in profits and tightening liquidity. The index is basically in place in time and space, and the short-term market still faces the risk of retracement. In the medium term, this round of group-driven index adjustment needs to be repaired.
Thanks to the continuous promotion of global vaccination, global demand recovery and rising inflation expectations, the main line of economic recovery and epidemic-damaged service industry is expected to continue to strengthen, and there is no sign of peaking yet.
For Bao Tuan shares, this round of volume adjustment has basically established the collapse of Bao Tuan, and the continuous rise has overdrawn the profits and stock index behind it, which needs to be repaired in the short term. For high-quality track companies, short-term adjustment is not afraid, and adjustment gives us a better chance to get on the bus.
Play a sand table war game
Gold rush plan
After the disintegration of the group, it faced the division after the pro-cyclical climax, and the index basically reached the designated position in time and space, and entered a shock pattern.
Strategically, light index, heavy stocks, with economic recovery and epidemic-damaged industries as the main line, superimposed oversold technology leaders.
Stock pool:
Pro-cyclical: Shenyang Chemical, Jiangxi Copper, Northern Rare Earth, Meijin Energy, Heshun Petroleum and Shengtun Mining.
Medium-term layout: Wanda Cinema, ZTE, Meinian Health, China Southern Airlines and Vanke A (continue to hold positions and do T repeatedly).
Big Finance: Industrial Securities, Guangfa Securities, Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank and China Pacific Insurance.
Big consumption: beauty cosmetics, Yili shares, Blue Ocean House, East China Medicine.
High-end manufacturing: CRRC, China Satellite and CIMC.
Two sessions concept/second child concept: People's Daily Online, Xinhuanet, Beinmei
The above views only represent personal views, for reference only, and do not constitute any investment advice for you. Therefore, the operation risk is at your own risk. Thirdly, the investment is risky and the operation needs to be cautious.