bank
Banks mainly relax the shareholding restrictions on asset management companies, encourage overseas financial institutions to participate in the establishment and investment of asset management subsidiaries of commercial banks, and allow overseas asset management institutions to control asset management companies.
We believe that the holding company of domestic commercial banks is probably an asset management subsidiary of large and medium-sized commercial banks. If this kind of asset management subsidiary introduces overseas financial institutions, it will help to learn from the mature asset management experience of overseas financial institutions and accelerate the development of asset management business of domestic commercial banks. This is similar to the introduction of overseas strategic investors by many city commercial banks in previous years, allowing overseas asset management institutions and Chinese banks to jointly set up overseas-controlled asset management companies. We think this kind of asset management company has a high probability.
securities company
As for securities companies, it is mainly planned to cancel the restrictions on foreign shares ratio of securities companies, fund management companies and futures companies on 202 1, which is earlier than 2020. In recent years, the CSRC has accelerated the high-level opening of the capital market. In 20 18, it was announced that the restrictions on the proportion of foreign investment in joint venture securities, fund management and futures companies would be relaxed to 5 1%, and no restrictions would be imposed after three years. At present, the policy of relaxing the foreign share ratio to 565,438+0% has been implemented. In 2065,438+08, the CSRC issued the Measures for the Administration of Foreign-invested Securities Companies and the Measures for the Administration of Foreign-invested Futures Companies, and approved the establishment of four foreign-controlled securities companies and fund management companies.
I think the short-term impact of foreign shareholding ratio on the industry structure is limited. The main reason is that (1) foreign securities companies have low evaluation in the early stage of development and the development of new business is limited. (2) At present, A shares are still a retail market, and it takes a lot of time for retail business to develop and build websites. Foreign securities companies have insufficient advantages in this respect. For a long time, foreign securities companies have been good at institutional business, and intensified competition will help improve the operating efficiency of domestic securities companies. With the accelerated opening of the financial market, the specialized and diversified financial needs of investors have increased, and the development model of transaction-centered institutional service business has become more abundant, fully benefiting leading securities companies.
insurance
The above-mentioned opening measures are unfavorable to the insurance industry. The main positive measures are (1) encouraging foreign investors to set up various asset management companies, developing bond evaluation business and developing A-level main sales in the inter-bank bond market, which is conducive to the development of China's capital market, especially the bond market, and improving the interest rate risk management ability of insurance companies. The primary risk of an insurance company is interest rate risk. (2) Fully relax the access conditions for foreign-funded insurance companies. Policies such as advancing the transition period of wholly foreign-owned life insurance enterprises to 2020 will greatly promote the debt strength of China's insurance industry and improve the strength of enterprises to develop insurance products.
On the other hand, the impact of the above-mentioned open policy on leading life insurance enterprises is biased in general. Leading insurance companies are large in scale, and there are many excellent employees in all aspects of insurance business, including sales agents and underwriting agents. In a short period of time, the impact of foreign insurance companies is limited. We judge that it is inevitable for foreign insurance companies to choose a small and beautiful intensive cultivation strategy in a short time, and the industry competition will be further intensified, especially for small-scale insurance companies.
Capital proposal
Generally speaking, we believe that opening to the outside world is conducive to the optimal allocation of domestic financial resources, but it will also intensify industry competition and bring greater pressure to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Each sub-industry:
On the banking side, maintaining the judgment of the overall economic downturn in the 20 19 industry, it is expected that the evaluation of the whole sector will not improve in the coming year, and the revenue of the sector will still be mainly ROE. Based on the high ROE level of the industry, we will maintain the over-allocation rating of the industry. For individual stocks, we continue to recommend the dumbbell combination of Agricultural Bank, China Merchants Bank Bank of Ningbo and Changshu Bank.
As for securities companies, we maintain neutral evaluation. We believe that with the opening of the capital market and the acceleration of financial innovation, the development mode of institutional services will be more abundant, and leading securities companies will get full benefits. We recommend CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities. In addition, we should also pay attention to characteristic securities companies whose advantages are difficult to replicate, such as Oriental Fortune and orient securities.
In terms of insurance, maintain the industry over-allocation evaluation and continue to look at the stock price performance of life insurance companies in the second half of the year. Considering the pressure of new orders at this stage, according to the performance-driven logic of inventory policies, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, Xinhua Life Insurance and China Life Insurance are mainly recommended.
Risk warning
When the macro-economy falls sharply, loose monetary policy has a negative impact on the net profit difference during the economic downturn, and the decline in corporate repayment ability has a great impact on the asset quality of the banking industry during the economic downturn. The economic downturn is often accompanied by the decline of the capital market, and the decline of residents' consumption power, which adversely affects the income of securities companies, is also not conducive to the sales of insurance products.